Big Blizzard

Viking Links
At NFL.com, Vic Carucci goes to Viking camp and does the same story we've all read many times: there's all sorts of pressure on Jackson to perform this year, and here are some quotes from coaches and teammates saying he's handling it great and they have confidence in him.

Aundrae Allison (Pioneer Press).

John David Booty (Sports Illustrated).

Zygi Wilf (Star Tribune).

Heath Farwell is out (Pioneer Press), which hurts the Vikes' special teams.

The Ragnarok is optimist about Tarvaris Jackson (once and again).

Some observations of the Vikes' preseason game (Grant's Tomb).

Super Bowl Buzz Kill: Vikings (Hater Nation).

Other Links
Football Outsiders looks at fantasy football players to avoid (both my tight ends are featured).

Chad Pennington will, I believe, help the Dolphins, and then everybody can love Bill Parcells. Cold Hard Football Facts notes Pennington is underrated: he's got the best completion percentage in NFL history, and he's three times led a team to the playoffs. The Jets may think they improved, but they also allowed a division rival to improve. Am I the last person on earth who thinks Josh McCown should be a starting quarterback? What is it about McCown that makes me like him? Why should I care?

John Clayton on Vince Young (ESPN). Pete Prisco on Vince Young (CBS). Here's my stance on Young: some year, he's going to be a fantasy football juggernaut. I see 3,000 yards and 25 TDs passing, 800 yards and 10 TDs rushing. It might not be this year, and it might not be next year. But it's going to happen, and so I'm going to keep drafting Vince Young until it does.

Michael Silver on Torry Holt (Yahoo!). Do you have a football player that you always want to have on your fantasy team, but never actually get on your fantasy team? For me that's been Torry Holt. I finally got to draft him this year.

John Carlos and Tommie Smith (Edge of Sports).

Javon Walker (fuh-"baw).

I believe!
It's foolish, I know. But after the Viking preseason game, I am optimistic about Tarvaris Jackson and Bernard Berrian. Seeing Jackson without his helmet on, he just looks like a starting quarterback: confident, calm, in control (this is stupid, right? Saying I believe in a quarterback because without his helmet on, he looks like a quarterback, whatever exactly that means? Isn't that absurd?). And Bernard Berrian made me believe he's not going to be a free agent disappointment: I believe he's a wide receiver that can consistently make plays in the 15 to 30 yard range. I'm starting to think Jackson can be a 3,000 yard quarterback, that Berrian can be a 1,000 yard receiver. I'm starting to think the Vikes are developing a passing game capable of making them a 10-12 win team.

Inevitable
In the Hazelweird League, I traded for Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. Marion Barber, Reggie Wayne, and Kenny Watson for Peterson, Taylor, and Kevin Curtis. Tell me I got took.

Tarvaris Jackson!

I think a preseason football game should be regarded as slightly less significant than an intense day of practice.

Still, Tarvaris Jackson looked sharp in the Vikes' first preseason game. His mobility really gives the Vikings something extra to work with, and he's pretty accurate throwing on the move. He looks to have some chemistry with Bernard Berrian, who could be a really good player for the Vikings this year.

From Jackson, we'll be looking for smart decisions (limiting turnovers), accurate passing, and the ability to connect on deep passes. But he looks better than he looked last season.

Blizzard

John Clayton thinks Brad Childress has handled Tarvaris Jackson just fine.

Alan Page (pro-football-reference).

Tyrell Johnson (Star Tribune).

Familiar scenario: Sid Hartman talks to an optimistic local sports owner (Star Tribune).

Chase Stuart talks about the Jets, Favre, and Super Bowl champs with new players (pro-football-reference).

"The NFL Network reported that if New York turns around and trade him to Minnesota, the Jets would have to give Green Bay three first-round picks" (Pioneer Press).

Chad Pennington
I have not been bothered that the Vikings committed to Tarvaris Jackson as the starting quarterback for 2008. I've gone from vexed to infuriated that the team hasn't done more to provide an adequate backup plan in case Jackson struggles. Right now it's all or nothing: if Jackson is successful, great, but if Jackson struggles, the season is probably lost. If the team had a solid veteran quarterback on the roster (and I don't believe in Gus Frerotte), then if Jackson struggles through four games or so, then the team could turn to the veteran to perhaps save the season and guide the team to the playoffs. It's just a reasonable backup plan: commit to Jackson, but be prepared to succeed even if he struggles. But the Vikes haven't done that.

I'd be thrilled if the Vikings could get Pennington. A month may not be enough to acclimate him to the offense, but if he's the backup option, then it would really be more like two months before the team would need him. He's a veteran, accurate in the short passing game, and generally makes good decisions. I'm not imploring the Vikes to get Pennington and install him as starter. I would love for them to get Pennington, continue to prepare for the Tarvaris Jackson Experience, and then ask Pennington to rescue the season if Jackson really isn't good.

A personal note
I've mentioned on this blog that I don't get ESPN at home. That all changes this week: I'll be getting both ESPN and the NFL Network, so that my life can be completely inundated with televised football.

Mediocrity

Good. And maybe the Jets will trade us Chad Pennington--I'd rather have him anyway.

Hazelweird Draft Results

For those who have expressed interest here is a link to go and see the hazelweird fantasy league draft results....we now return to your regularly scheduled programming.

SI at Viking Camp

Jim Trotter provides Sports Illustrated's postcard from Viking training camp.

Fantasy Football Discussion: Running Backs

Important Assessment: Yards Per Attempt
Few fantasy football leagues reward or punish a player for his yards per attempt, so when you prepare for a season, you may overlook a running back's rushing yards per attempt. This is, in my opinion, a mistake: I look to yards per carry as a major tool in assessing running backs.

A running back with high yards per attempt has explosive ability. You're trying to project who will be good in the coming year, and so past yards per attempt can tell you who has the potential to be elite. It's not a total number: a running back with few carries could have great yards per carry (small sample size, beneficial situations), but in general, a running back with great yards per carry on 200+ carries is probably great.

I'm scared of running backs who, in a particular season, have a lot of yards and touchdowns but poor yards per attempt. Such a running back needs too much to go his way to repeat such a season: lots of carries, lots of goal-line attempts, consistent help from his team's passing game to pick up first downs, and help from the team overall to build leads or at least keep games close.

Monster Running Backs
You don't win the Hazelweird Trophy without a Monster Season running back on your roster. You need to have a running back that's going to consistently score your team points from week to week, and who will also explode for multi-touchdown games.

There are five running backs from whom anything less than a Monster Season would be a disappointment: Ladanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, and Joseph Addai. You draft one of those players expecting a Monster Season, and if you don't get it, you're probably going to have a lousy year. But there are some other running backs that I expect a Monster Season from.

Marion Barber
It strikes me how similar Barber is to Joseph Addai. They are both young, explosive running backs in very good pass-first offenses. They will each have a ton of scoring opportunities (20 TDs is a distinct possibility), and while neither will rush for 1,500 yards, you should expect at least 1,500 yards from scrimmage. Barber was my first pick (#10) in the Hazelweird League.

Frank Gore
I'm not sure there is a ceiling on Gore's total yards: I expect Gore to have 2,000+ yards from scrimmage. But his career high for touchdowns is nine, and he plays in a lousy offense. If you draft Gore, you should hope for well over 2,000 total yards, but you should be ecstatic if you get as many as 12 touchdowns.

Laurence Maroney
He's a running back on a great team with an easy schedule. The Patriots are still going to have an amazing offense, but I expect a major balancing out between passing and rushing touchdowns. Last year the Pats passed for 50 TDs and rushed for 17. They ranked #1 in the league in passing yards, and #13 in rushing yards. And Maroney was dealing with injuries last season, and had a lot of good running games in the latter part of the year. My only concern is how the Patriots will use him. Will they give somebody else goal-line carries? Will he still be a non-factor as a receiver? But Maroney definitely has the potential for a Monster Season.

Disappointments in Waiting
Here are some running backs that I see disappointing owners hoping for a Monster Season.

Marshawn Lynch
For some reason I can't get Cadillac Williams out of my mind. He has solid though not spectacular rookie year production, which pushes him into the top two rounds of the next year's draft. And we know how that story ended.

Clinton Portis
I should like everything about him. But here's what I can't get over: in four years in Washington, Portis has averaged 3.97 yards per carry in the regular season and post-season. That's just around average. It wouldn't make me think Portis is ready for a Monster Season, and it makes me think he'll be dependent on his team's success for production. Of course, even with that average and with an up and down team, Portis has produced, so he will not be a complete dud. He just won't have a Monster Season.

Larry Johnson
I think it's over. I could be wrong, but I'm not going to be the one to risk using a high pick on him: 416 carries in 2007 may have destroyed him. It was a fun couple of years, though. On this prediction, though, I think if I'm wrong, I'll be very, very wrong.

Value
These guys aren't sleepers by any means, but I'll call them "Monster Season Sleepers." People think well enough to draft them as starters, but they probably don't expect a Monster Season. I think it's possible.

Brandon Jacobs
Two key facts excite me about Jacobs. First, last season he averaged 91.7 yards rushing per game (Adrian Peterson led the league with 95.8 yards per game). Second, he has been a goal-line back in the past. He also averaged 5.0 yards per attempt in the regular season, and plays in an offensive system that has been very beneficial to running backs (under Tom Coughlin, the Giants have ranked 11th, 6th, 7th, and 4th in rushing yards). I picked him with the first pick of the fourth round in the Hazelweird League.

Willis McGahee
Fantasy owners have probably gotten a little weary of McGahee, and see him as an "He is what he is" sort of player. I think he has one Monster Season in him. It could be this season, with Cam Cameron as the Ravens' offensive coordinator.

Conclusion
I didn't want to just provide position rankings here--I thought I'd provide my thoughts on particular running backs and some points for discussion. Now it's your turn: do you have any feelings (good or bad) about any fantasy running backs this season?

Pat Williams

Pat Williams has been one of my favorite Vikings for the past three seasons. When he's on his game, he's just exploding through the offensive line busting up plays, and it's a joy to watch.

In the Pioneer Press, Pat Williams talks about the team.

Patrick Reusse grows on me

Reusse says that "Fuss about Favre is nuts on both sides."

Tarvaris Jackson

We've been reading about Tarvaris Jackson's performance in Viking training camp, about how he's been up and down. He'll complete some nice passes, but he'll also throw the occasional interception. We tend to forget that many of us expect the Viking defense to be among the NFL's elite defenses this season, and so Jackson is practicing against what we hope is an elite unit. And the Pioneer Press notes Jackson looked good against the Chiefs in a practice scrimmage.

The focus is rightly on Jackson. But that's primarily because we expect the defense to be good, which makes us forget the standard of competition Jackson is facing in practice.

Favre

OK, think about it this way. Quarterback X has won MVPs, has set passing records, has won a lot of games, and is still playing at a very high level. Your favorite team is really good at every position except quarterback, perhaps dominant if they get a competent veteran quarterback. Would you want Quarterback X to join the team?

Me too.

Says Kevin Seiftert: "It is almost common knowledge that Favre wants to play for the Vikings."

I have a weird feeling this is happening. Favre is stubborn, and in this situation he does have some leverage. If he wants to force the issue to end up on the team he wants to, he just might.

My soul is twisting around, ready to snap in two.

Little Blizzard

Links
Thomas Tapeh (Star Tribune).

Madieu Williams and Darren Sharper (Pioneer Press).

Adrian Peterson (Pioneer Press).

Tarvaris Jackson and Bernard Berrian (Viking Update).

Tarvaris Jackson's practice (Star Tribune).

Just tell me how I'm supposed to feel (Access Vikings). Addendum: yes, just tell me how to feel (ESPN).

I'm really tired of the report card format for any type of team evaluation. For one thing, it's totally played. For another, it doesn't really make a lot of sense. Summer report cards? Report cards generally come after a course is completed, to evaluate the work already completed. But for what it's worth, USA Today gives the Vikings an A.

A different view on running back overuse (Advanced NFL Stats).

Playoff success since re-alignment (Cold, Hard Football Facts).

Narcissism
The Hazelweird Fantasy Draft is on Sunday. Afterward I will likely share some sincere fantasy football thoughts about players I like and dislike. Afterward I will also be recovering from drinking gin (a common enough occurrence), smoking cigars (an extremely rare occurrence), and eating a whole lot of cheese (I'm mostly vegan, but make cheese exceptions for social and special occasions--I've been fantasizing about pizza for days). This year I have no plans for wearing a headband (but I might--why not?) or growing a moustache.

So what sorts of things to you do for and during a fantasy draft?

Vikings in the Hall of Fame

Part Two of Football Outsiders' look at Hall of Fame respect by franchise covers the Vikings.

It's somebody else's turn to get infatuated with Troy Williamson's speed

Jason Cole at Yahoo! talks about Troy Williamson in Jacksonville.

There's also more talk about his past problems with dropped passes, with hope that it's in the past. Some other team's fans can get false hope from articles about how Williamson's dropped passes became a mental problem and he's really moved past it (though I've seen little discussed on another of Williamson's problems as a receiver: while he's fast enough to get open downfield, in his pro career he has always shown major problems adjusting to a ball in the air).

Williamson also talks about his bad relationship with Brad Childress, which is interesting.

Maybe we don't know what the Vikings are going to get in Bernard Berrian or Sidney Rice. And maybe Troy Williamson will really develop into an effective player. But I'm happier about the team's WRs this summer than I was last summer.

(so much so, Hazelweirders, that I'm thinking about using the 10th and 11th picks in Sunday's draft on Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice. But don't hold me to that).

Fill your head with fantasies of Jackson to Berrian

According to the Pioneer Press, Tarvaris Jackson and Bernard Berrian have been spending a lot of time working on football together.

I'm starting to believe. There's no reason for people to have great faith that Tarvaris Jackson will star this season--but I also see no reason to have firm belief that he'll suck, either.

And as Michael Lombardi writes, "I can't think of one player who will control the won/loss record of any team in the NFL more than Tarvaris Jackson."

This is why I'm having such trouble making a prediction on the Vikings' record. If Jackson struggles, I think the Vikes will go 7-9 (whether or not he gets benched). If Jackson plays competent football, I think the Vikes could win as many as 12 games. 10-6 or even 11-5 seems like a pretty reasonable prediction, but it really depends on Jackson's ability to consistently make plays and make good decisions.

Weekend Blizzard

It wouldn't be a professional sports league unless a team that has clearly not been disrespected didn't claim to be disrespected. Don Banks on the New York Giants.

A Star Tribune article on Bernard Berrian.

Sid Hartman talks about QB controversies in Viking history. For some reason, it amuses me to reflect on a Fran Tarkenton-Tommy Kramer QB controversy.

Zygi Wilf is out fielding punts and stuff (Pioneer Press).

I'm juiced about Laurence Maroney as a fantasy running back (or am I?). Now the Pats also have Lamont Jordan (Yahoo!). Is Lamont Jordan worth a late fantasy pick? No.

Should you pay any attention to Strength of Schedule for fantasy football analysis? Scott Pianowski says you shouldn't. The other thing I've been mulling over: should you pay attention to a team's new offensive coordinator?

Marvin Harrison practiced (USA Today).

An amusing enough fantasy mailbag with Michael Fabiano.

Football Outsiders examines Hall of Fame love by franchise. This is just part one--part two will include the Vikings.

Viking Training Camp

The Star Tribune lists five things to watch for in Viking training camp.

In my mind, there's only one thing to watch for: Brad Childress' goatee. Why is it? How long will it exist? Will it grow fuller? Are goatees now ruined forever? Did Childress go away this offseason to a hermitage and come back a new, enlightened man? Is Childress choosing a new identity? See, I don't think I could really be an NFL reporter. I would repeatedly ask questions about the interview subject's hair and facial hair.

Fantasy Vikings

At Pancake Blocks, Gregg Rosenthal makes some interesting fantasy predictions about the Minnesota Vikings.

I'm out of order, you're out of order, the whole SYSTEM is out of order!

If the Packers gave Brett Favre a cell phone, and Brett Favre then called the Vikings, then maybe Brett Favre should be punished for tampering with the Vikings! It was all a setup! A conspiracy! The next X-Files movie should check this out!

Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten

Jason Witten seems to be highly regarded among fantasy football enthusiasts for 2008. For example, Brandon Funston at Yahoo! has Jason Witten ranked 43rd overall, the top tight end on the list. He did have 96 receptions for 1,145 yards and seven touchdowns last season, so he should be highly regarded.

Funston has Tony Gonzalez ranked 54th overall, the fourth tight end on the list. But last year, Gonzalez' numbers were very comparable to Witten's: 99 receptions, 1,172 yards, and five touchdowns.

It was Gonzalez's seventh season in the last eight with 900+ yards. He's consistently produced at the tight end position. Why shouldn't Gonzalez be ranked ahead of Witten?

Witten does have better team context for support: he's got a good quarterback and a high scoring offense, while Gonzalez has neither. But Gonzalez has been a great tight end for a decade, with all sorts of good, bad, and mediocre quarterbacks--I'm not sure there's significant data to suggest Gonzalez will struggle to put up numbers with a lesser QB. Witten will get more help from his teammates, but that doesn't mean his numbers will significantly outpace Gonzalez's.

Witten did have more touchdowns than Gonzalez in 2007. But in the last four seasons, Witten has 20 TDs, Gonzalez 19. That's not a significant difference to suggest Witten will score more TDs than Gonzalez in 2008. After all, in his career, Gonzalez has matched or betterd Witten's career high of seven touchdowns in a season five times (furthermore, Witten played most of 2006 with Tony Romo, and only had one touchdown).

Jason Witten has established himself as a good fantasy tight end over the past four seasons, certainly. But the current perception values Witten, while people seem to have grown bored with Gonzalez' consistently high production. That makes Gonzalez the better fantasy pick--I would rank them very close together, but Witten will likely go a round or two before Gonzalez. While somebody else is drafting Witten, you can draft a quality RB, WR, or QB, and try get somebody like Gonzalez a bit later. Witten is good, but are you that confident he'll have a better year than Gonzalez? Than Antonio Gates? Than Kellen Winslow Jr.? Than Chris Cooley? So is it really worth selecting him before any other tight ends have been picked?

I never like taking a TE early in a snake draft--it requires you to pass on a potential starter at one of the more critical positions (RB, WR, QB). And I always like drafting those players that are so consistent over a long period of time that other fantasy football drafters have started taking them for granted.

(The standard caveat applies: Hazelweirders must speculate whether I actually believe any of this).

Blizzard

In ESPN's Training Camp power rankings, the Vikes are 11th.

Cold, Hard Football Facts provides some fun stat stuff for 2008.

Antonio Gates or Jason Witten? Yahoo! discusses it.

According to USA Today, Adrian Peterson is the second best current running back.

Peter Schrager of Fox Sports looks at the NFC North.

In USA Today's quarterback rankings, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning tie for #1. I'm glad. A lot of people rank Brady ahead of Manning after the 2007 season, but if this poll were done last summer, Manning would come out #1. What really strikes me is what happens from #3 on. There's no debate about the top two, but starting at #3, you could shift those rankings all around.

At Football Outsiders, Mike Tanier provides personality profiles based on your fantasy football drafting style. Take note, Hazelweirders: according to Tanier, the sort of person that picks WRs with his or her first two picks is a self-righteous vegan hippie.

Viking All-Time Team

Pro-Football-Reference.com has used Approximate Value "to come up with a post-merger all-franchise team for each franchise." Check out the NFC North.

I'm a bit surprised that Daunte Culpepper comes in ahead of Fran Tarkenton, and Matt Birk comes in ahead of Mick Tinglehoff.

According to this standard, the three greatest Vikings are three of the team's Hall of Famers: Alan Page, Ron Yary, and Carl Eller, who each have over 100. The other 90+ players are Cris Carter, Randall McDaniel, John Randle, and Chris Doleman.

If you really defined the Viking franchise's greatness over the years, you'd probably start at defensive line. There were the Purple People Eaters (Alan Page, Carl Eller, Jim Marshall, Gary Larsen), and later players like Chris Doleman, Keith Millard, John Randle, Henry Thomas, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and now Jared Allen.

The Line of Scrimmage

According to USA Today, the Vikings have the top current Defensive End. According to the same newspaper, remember, the Vikes also have the top Defensive Tackle and the top interior Offensive Lineman.

Let's give Brad Childress this credit: when he took over as head coach of the Minnesota Vikings, he talked about how a good football team should be built first from the offensive and defensive lines. Going into his third year with the team, the Vikings appear to be stacked on the offensive and defensive lines. This is the sort of team he said he wanted to make the Vikings.

The 2008 Vikings should have great play at the line of scrimmage. Nobody seems terribly worried about that.

Defensively, the Vikings also have good starting linebackers and an OK secondary (don't let the cumulative numbers fool you: the Vikes ranked 16th in pass yards allowed per attempt last season. They gave up a lot of yards because they gave up so many attempts: they were average in defending those attempts).

Offensively, they have dynamic running backs in Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, and an improving group of wide receivers (high hopes for Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice).

Which brings us back to Tarvaris Jackson. It always brings us back to Tarvaris Jackson.

This would happen, wouldn't it?

In 2004, I watched a Monday Night Game between the Cowboys and the Seahawks. I thought, Wow, what if somebody ten years ago told me this would be happening. Mike Holmgren was coaching the Seahawks, Bill Parcells was coaching the Cowboys. Jerry Rice was having a great game for the Seahawks. Vinny Testaverde was the starting quarterback for the Cowboys, throwing passes to Keyshawn Johnson. Could this really be happening? How did the league come to this?

And now, tell me when exactly you would have believed that the Packers would accuse the Vikings of tampering with Brett Favre.

(more info from Kevin Seifert at Hashmarks).

Enough is Enough

The Brett Favre saga has to end. Now it leads to tampering charges against the Vikings? I didn't like the Packers to begin with, but now, now I can't even find the words to describe the rage growing inside me.

Adrian Peterson: Fantasy Running Back

At ESPN, Matthew Berry discusses fantasy players he loves and hates (based on value), beginning with why he hates Adrian Peterson (he doesn't really hate Adrian Peterson, just doesn't like his fantasy value).

This is actually the sort of fantasy football preview article I really enjoy. There are all sorts of free positional rankings out there. Berry is going a little deeper and discussing which players he values more or less than the general consensus, which is interesting and useful.

Viking Defensive Line

At ESPN, Doug Kretz of Scouts, Inc. says the Vikings have the best defensive line in the league.

(Insider article, but you can read what Kretz writes about the Vikings without Insider).

Blizzard: July is a Time for Lists

Links
Cold, Hard Football Facts discusses the five most underrated quarterbacks in history.

Defensive Indifference looks at the top 20 current Minnesota Vikings.

USA Today ranks the top wide receivers of the Super Bowl era and today. I think wide receiver is still my favorite position--there are a lot of wide receivers I really enjoy watching play.

Roger Rotter ranks his fantasy quarterbacks and fantasy wide receivers. I think Ben Roesthlisberger is the most overrated fantasy quarterback of 2008. I doubt he can hit 32 touchdowns again, and he only averaged around 200 yards per game last season. I expect something like 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns from Roethlisberger, which is the sort of fantasy production 10 quarterbacks will probably meet or top next season. Not that it matters to me: I always trade for Matt Hasselbeck sometime mid-season and ride him out as my starter.

Dr. Z looks at some historical examples of great quarterbacks finishing out their careers on different teams.

How bland is July? Vikings.com is taking the entire week to rank Adrian Peterson's top moments of 2007. This was the perfect time of the year for He Who We Wish Not To Speak About to start putting himself in the news again, if his goal was to dominate all football coverage. Just about every mainstream football website features Favre in the big main page photo and with the lead stories. And why not? The only other thing to do in July is make lists.

At TrueHoop, Maurice Brooks talks about Kevin Love.

MN Sports Hotdish compares Carlos Gomez to Torii Hunter's early days with the Twins.

Beyond Shinders
People collect sports cards for different reasons. I just like to get cheap, attractive cards of players I like. So I'm thrilled that Beyond Shinders, a sports card store in the Twin Cities, is bringing back the best feature of the old Shinders: the specials box. Rows and rows of star cards, most priced at 29 cents. They also have "commons" boxes, which feature a lot of star cards for 10 cents each. It's a nice feature for people who like to spend a lot of time in card stores looking, and for people who like to get cards without spending much money at all.

Brett Favre
I don't care.

Fantasy Football Fever
The Hazelweird League draft is now less than three weeks away. I chose to pick last in the first round, so I get to pick #10 and #11. I've got mad schemes for those picks. Mad schemes.

The Black and Blue Division

Kevin Seifert discusses the NFC North's general run-first philosophy.

Oh, it wasn't always this way. Remember 1995, when Warren Moon, Brett Favre, Erik Kramer, and Scott Mitchell combined for 132 touchdown passes?

Big Blizzard

Brett Favre
There was a time when any offseason football rumors sent me atwitter. But the internet, with its constant rumor, speculation, and potential, has pretty taken that away from me (I'm not saying that's a bad thing). I won't think about Brett Favre until there is a fact staring at my face. If he goes somewhere, I'll comment on it. Until then, this is all you'll hear from me about him.

(Oh, and he's the all-time interception leader, and in his last playoff game, he came up dud in the fourth quarter and then threw a clinching interception in overtime. Now that's all you'll hear from me).

Fantasy Football Projections Put Too Much Emphasis On The Previous Season Alone, Instead of Consistency Over An Extended Period of Time.
Last season Tom Brady threw 50 TDs and 4,806 yards, better than Peyton Manning's 31 TDs and 4,040 yards. But over the past six seasons Manning has averaged 32.5 TDs and 4,201, while Brady has averaged 29.8 TD passes and 3,920 yards. No, the difference isn't terribly great: 2.7 TDs and 281 yards per season. But Manning has been more consistently statistically dominant (8 of 10 seasons with 4,000+ yards, never fewer than 26 TD passes), and if I have a choice between Brady or Manning for my 2008 fantasy team, I'd rather have Manning.

Last season, I was in a 14-team league and selected Peyton Manning in the first round (my justification of that pick is here), and I finished 3rd. I would do it again: I trust Manning's consistency, and in a deep league, I didn't want my first pick to be a dud. And despite Brady's 2007 season, Peyton Manning is the only quarterback I would consider taking in the first round this season.

Nuts to First Round Running Backs!
In fantasy football, I feel running backs have too high a "bust rate." Not only is it a position extremely prone to injuries, but a lot of running backs have a great season, gain a lot of fantasy hype, then disappoint the following season. I'm tired of that noise. For me, the first and second round is a time to pick quarterbacks and wide receivers. Elite players at those positions are less injury prone, and their performances are generally more consistent from year to year. Running backs are boom and bust, quarterbacks and wide receivers are reliable. I'll take reliable with my early picks: I want elite players that are most likely to perform well. Plus, there are 32 teams in the NFL, and every one of those teams is going to start somebody at running back each week. In a fantasy football league with around 10 teams, you can find starting running backs.

Oh, yeah...
Remember I don't trust any of the duplicitous confidence men in the Hazelweird League, and so you shouldn't believe everything I say about fantasy football on this blog, because I am trying to deceive those degenerates.

You know what I'm tired of?
Thinking about Tarvaris Jackson every single day of my life. Should he really be that important to me? Why do I spend so much time thinking about him? Why does my every football thought somehow devolve to "Yeah, but Tarvaris Jackson"?

Links
A Suspension of Disbelief article: Bucky Brooks talks about how great Randy McMichael might be this season. Nope, I can't suspend my disbelief for that.

In fantasy football, there's a big gap between perception and value. Pancake Blocks comments on Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.

Pro-football-reference.com does a good job of entertaining and amusing during the offseason. Chase Stuart examines some cherry picked facts, and Doug does "a very, very simple similar-player generator."

I Dislike Your Favorite Team discusses Minnesota, Wisconsin, fair weather fandom, and the problem of attendance as a standard. I think in general Minnesota does have a mostly fair weather fanbase, but don't assume all the parts share the qualities of the whole--there are a lot of die-hards here. If anybody wants to accuse Minnesotans in general of being fair weather fans, I'd probably agree with you; if anybody accused me of being a fair weather fan, I'd say "then why did I watch every game the 2002 Vikings played? Why did I watch every game the 2006 Vikings played? Why do I still bother talking about the Timberwolves? For that matter, how do I maintain the energy to keep up a blog about the freakin' Vikings?"

Cold, Hard Football Facts discusses how era affects passing numbers, and lists the five most overrated quarterbacks. It's good stuff, and I'll just make one critical remark. What would you say about a quarterback that had four consecutive playoff games with completion percentages over 70%? What would you say about a quarterback that had five consecutive playoff games with ratings between 91.8 and 118.4? You'd think that's a pretty good playoff quarterback, right? And if that quarterback's teams gave up an average of 26 points per game in his playoff starts, you might not blame him for those playoff losses, right? I'm talking about Warren Moon. As I've said before, the numbers show that Warren Moon was very good in the playoffs, especially in his prime from '89-'93. And considering Moon didn't even get a chance to play quarterback in the NFL until he was 28 primarily due to racist assumptions, I've got a lot of respect for what Moon was able to accomplish. In a previous column, CHFF's first two arguments against Moon as a Hall of Famer focused on his team's playoff failures, and in the column on overrated quarterbacks, CHFF notes Moon's "poor playoff performances." That's far too dismissive. The arguments against Moon's accumulated regular season stats have a solid basis--the criticism of Moon's supposedly poor playoff performance ignores a lot of contrary evidence.

An interesting change at Football Outsiders: DYAR is replacing DPAR, which allows more clarity and understanding of the stats' meaning. There are also some other solid adjustments to their system, including the standards for replacement level. Specifically, Schatz writes that "Originally, we estimated replacement level by simply using a scale similar to the one our partners at Baseball Prospectus use for hitters and pitchers [...] It was time to come up with something we felt was more accurate than 'this is sort of based on what BP does.'" One of my vague, undeveloped critiques of FO was its adoption of replacement level from baseball, so I like the shift toward a more independent basis in football. I'm still not entirely sure replacement level means as much in football as it might in baseball (so much interdependence for player performance), but Football Outsiders is generally so insightful, useful, and scientific in its analysis that I won't quibble terribly much.

An interesting bit of off-season amusement at Sports Illustrated: putting together an all-star roster that must abide by a salary cap. Good, good, good. But if I'm starting a team from scratch, salary cap or no salary cap, first of all I'll take the quarterback that led teams to 10, 12, 12, 14, 12, and 13 regular season wins in the past six seasons, and whose team has finished #2, #1, #2, #2, and #3 in points scored the past five seasons.

Tony Gonzalez saved somebody's life (ESPN).

Roger Rotter ranks fantasy running backs. I will provide my running back rankings after August 3. For today I'll just say that my rankings are rather different than Rotter's rankings.

Footballguys gives a warning rookie running backs in fantasyland: "only three times in the last 10 years has the 1st RB drafted ended up as the top fantasy producer."

Roy. S. Johnson is tired of "the coverage of athletes’ misbehavior." Me too. I don't even click on the links anymore. I don't care. I watch sports for fun, and I don't want to read about every traffic violation an athlete commits.

Here's another free fantasy football site: Fantasy Football Fools.

Adrian Peterson

Chicago Bears' blog Blog Down is doing a nifty little concept, ranking down the top ten players that "will be the most instrumental to the Bears’ success in 2008."

At #10 is Viking running back Adrian Peterson.

Fantasy Football Advice: Draft Players

At NFL.com, Michael Fabiano provides some post-draft advice for fantasy football enthusiasts. I kid you not, here is the first bit of advice:

"1. Know the schedule and set a lineup each week"

"This might seem like an obvious rule, but I can't tell you the number of times I've seen owners fail to set their lineups. Whether a player is injured or on a bye week, he needs to be removed as a starter in order to have the best possible chance at a win. Even if that means you need to start San Diego's No. 2 running back or Atlanta's No. 3 wide receiver, at least there's a chance to see some points."

Let's get this straight, because I'm pretty sure Michael Fabiano just blew my mind. In order to succeed at fantasy football, I need to put players into my starting lineup. And "in order to have the best possible chance at a win," I need to put players into my lineup that will actually play.

Hold on, I need an illustration to fully comprehend this advice in all its complexity. So San Diego's #2 running back has a better chance at points than a player on bye? Atlanta's #3 WR might get me more points than a player that is out with injury?

At least Fabiano recognizes that "this might seem like an obvious rule." Basically, you have a better chance at success if you actually pay attention to football and adjust your lineups, than if you set a lineup and then forget to adjust it throughout the season. You have a better chance to get fantasy football wins if you start players that are playing, than if you start players that are not playing.

But really, if you want to succeed at football, just take this NFL.com writer's advice. It's mind-blowing. He also advices fantasy football participants to "Use the waiver wire and check the transactions report" and "Make trades from depth to improve at weaker positions." Since you've never thought about that before, you ought to thank this writer, listed as the "Fantasy Editor" for the NFL's official website, for providing you these nifty little tips. That's what the official website of the NFL has to offer.

In order to help you perform better at fantasy football, I would like to provide some of my own tips. Fabiano has provided everything you need to know for "post-draft" management of your team: here is some advice for what to do during the draft.

1. Draft players for every position your league allows you to start.
If your league allows you to start two running backs, don't just select one running back. And if your league allows you to start a tight end, don't forget to draft one on draft night. Remember, a real tight end has a better probability of scoring your team points than a blank spot in your starting lineup.

2. Only draft current players.
Dan Marino is a Hall of Famer, but he is unlikely to get you any fantasy points in 2008. Believe it or not, even Brodie Croyle is likely to get more fantasy points in 2008 than players like Marino, Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, Fran Tarkenton, Steve Young, or John Elway. So make sure to look at an updated list of current NFL players.

3. Draft team starters, not team backups.
In all likelihood, a team's starting quarterback will have more fantasy points than a team's backup quarterback. Backup players can emerge to become valid fantasy performers, but don't pick Jim Sorgi before Peyton Manning.

4. When it is your turn to pick, make sure to say a name.
When it is your turn to select a player, you actually have to select a player. You shouldn't just stare at the wall. Don't just grin at everybody. Don't say, "Alright, I'm set. Who picks next?" If you don't actually pick players, you won't end up with anybody on your roster.

Jared Allen and Sacks

At Advanced NFL Stats, Brian Burke looks at Jared Allen's sack rate and how sacks correlate to winning.

Kevin Williams

For the second time, USA Today has ranked a Viking as the best current player at his position, calling Kevin Williams the top defensive tackle in the game today. Alan Page is ranked as the fifth best DT of the Super Bowl era.

(just a note--I think Pat Williams is better than Kevin Williams--not as versatile, but more dominant).

PV at 10,000 Takes

At 10,000 Takes, some more thoughts on Dr. Z's prediction that the Vikes win the Super Bowl (this year!), particularly looking at his comments on Brad Childress and Tarvaris Jackson.

Vikings as a Fantasy Defense

Andy Behrens of Yahoo! discusses the dilemma of when to take a fantasy defense, focusing on the Minnesota Viking defense in particular.

I actually think the Viking Defense will be a fantasy disappointment. They will improve as a defense overall, and for fantasy purposes, they should have more sacks, fewer points allowed per game, and a solid number of turnovers. But the Vikes had a ridiculous number of defensive touchdowns last season. I don't think it likely the Vikes will have close to eight (EIGHT!) defensive touchdowns again--that's just fantastic, and requires too many breaks to happen again.

So the Vikings will likely be clumped in with a lot of good defenses in fantasy points. And that's fine--they'll be good. But somebody (especially in drafts filled with Viking fans) is going to take the Viking Defense too early, passing on position players that could help a team, and being disappointed when a handful of fantasy defenses drafted a few rounds later outperform the Vikes. I'm actually the only fantasy owner in the six-year history of the Hazelwierd League to ever have the Viking Defense on my roster. That's going to change this year.

Then again, in a Snake Draft, you can't think that way--you have to target the players you really want, and take them when you can get them. So, Viking fans, feel good if you do draft the Viking defense. You'll still get to root for the entire squad (which you would anyway), and get fantasy points out of it too.

Blizzardy Goodness

At ESPN, Kevin Seifert writes about Kenechi Udeze's cancer recovery and his marrow transplant from his brother.

To help us through Irrelevant Controversy Season, USA Today is ranking the top five players at different positions during the Super Bowl era, and today. According to USA Today, Steve Hutchinson is the best interior offensive lineman playing today.

Jared Allen will talk to NFL rookies about his alcohol abuse (Pioneer Press).

On Adrian Peterson (Viking Update).

Pro-Football-Reference.com puts together regular season and postseason data to rank the all-time quarterbacks. A lot of interesting stuff, including Fran Tarkenton at #5. Throughout Chase Stuart's look at quarterbacks, he's made an important point for evaluating quarterbacks: it is important for a quarterback to be able to avoid sacks. Quarterbacks' numbers can change a good deal when you account for yards lost on sacks.

By the way, in the interest of honesty, I'm a liar: I bought a fantasy football magazine. I had my reasons.

Now I'm just sitting around looking forward to the Kevin Love experience.

Kevin Love: Superstar

Kevin Love has the potential to be a superstar--just not if you have a narrow vision of what a superstar is. Love is a guy that modeled his game after Wes Unseld, a guy who won MVP in a year that he averaged 13.8 points per game, a guy who was elected to the NBA 50 team with a career scoring average of 10.8 points per game. But Wes Unseld was a superstar. What did he bring you? Great rebounding (eight seasons in the top five in rebounds per game), dominant defense, and unselfish passing.

Most importantly, he brought you wins. He played in 119 playoff games, was an NBA Finals MVP, and won a championship.

Kevin Love can be a superstar. In the short term, I'm having dreams of Love throwing the outlet pass to Mike Miller, a fun transition player. In the long term, I've fantasizing about Love playing dominant playoff games and leading the Timberwolves to a championship.

I'm not giving up on this team. This team is just getting started.

Goodbye Timberwolves.......

Last night I went to bed excited about this year in the NBA. I was ready to watch the first player the Timberwolves had acquired via the draft since Kevin Garnett that could actually turn into a superstar. And then ......... I woke up. It was a dream wasn't it.... It had to be. I got onto the internet and looked again at my post and we had drafted OJ Mayo, but then I traveled the roads of the internet a little bit more and BAM! It was a dream. There was no way that Kevin McHale was going to let Timberwolves' fans actually get excited about a superstar. No we have to watch Kevin Love.

Now it isn't that I don't like Kevin Love. I think Kevin Love will be a solid NBA player and his basketball IQ is outstanding. He is a guy who watches old NBA footage to learn how the game was played. That is a great thing and I like it, but......Kevin Love will not be a superstar. He will at best be a double-double guy that can put up 17 and 10 or something like that. A solid piece but not an OJ Mayo level of stardom and excitement.

I wish Kevin Love the best this year, but I for one will not be watching him play because I am done with Kevin McHale and the Timberwolves. Glen Taylor if you read the internet: PLEASE CUT THE UMBILICAL CHORD THAT IS BETWEEN YOU AND MCHALE. HE IS DESTROYING YOUR INVESTMENT ONE BAD TRADE AFTER ANOTHER! Seriously, with Mayo fans would have been excited and actually paid to watch the Twolves, but who in their right mind would pay to go watch Kevin Love if they had a free night and were looking for something to do. Bad business decision. Bad basketball decision.

Mike Miller is at least a sharpshooter and that is nice, but please tell me they buy out Brian Cardinal's contract because I cannot stand to see him in a Twolves uniform. Well on the bright side, Marco Jaric is no longer on the team to remind me of one of McHale's other idiotic trades of Sam Cassell and a future 1st rounder (still owed to the Clippers) for Jaric.

Well, I wonder if we can win the lottery next year and be able to draft Greg Monroe, wait you tell me even if they did they would trade him for a bunch of assets and get Kyle Singler instead. You are probably right.

Well at least I have Duke Basketball to look foward to. (Who knows maybe if I have my son [pictured above] study nothing but film of Kevin McHale playing bastkeball he too could be a Timberwolves player in 16 years....we all know Kevin McHale will still be the GM)

O.J. Mayo

I can still cheer for the Timberwolves because they took O.J. Mayo. Unfortunately, I don't know if that is a good thing or a bad thing.

It's fun when people tell you what you want to hear.

I already think that Dan Marino and Peyton Manning are the greatest quarterbacks of all-time. Thanks, Chase, for confirming it!

Seriously, though, pro-football-reference.com has an interesting post on the greatest quarterbacks of all-time. Using a statistical system, they've ranked quarterbacks by best season of all-time, best quarterback season yearly, and best quarterback career.

As long as we're talking about things I want to hear, let me add this about Dr. Z's prediction that the Vikes will win the Super Bowl this season. I go into every single NFL season with the hope that this is the year the Vikings win the Super Bowl. If I didn't have this hope, I don't know that I could keep watching the team. And I don't even give up this hope until the moment the Vikes are eliminated from playoff contention. But I don't really think the Vikings will ever win the Super Bowl. I just can't really imagine the joy I would feel if that happened. As I've considered my life as a sports fan, I've realized that my deepest hope is just to see the Vikings win one championship, and the Timberwolves win one championship. That's it. But I deeply doubt I will ever see the fulfillment of these hopes. But I thank Dr. Z for his little part in keeping that hope alive.

Timberwolves and NBA Draft Blizzard

Draft the Potential Superstar: O.J. Mayo
If you are picking at #3 in the NBA draft, you should never draft based on need. First of all, if you're drafting that early, you probably have needs everywhere--the starter you think you don't need to replace still got you an early lottery pick, so there's that. But almost every NBA champion since the league's inception has been led by a superstar (or more). You might build a playoff team by filling out team needs, but you'll never build a champion that way. If there is a potential superstar in the draft, take him.

The Timberwolves must draft O.J. Mayo at #3. He's the potential superstar that could transform this franchise in the post-KG era.

I would trade every player on the Timberwolves' roster for the #1 pick in this draft.
Wouldn't you?

Kevin Love > Brook Lopez
OK, college success does not easily translate to pro success. But as a sophomore on a Pac-10 team, Brook Lopez averaged 19.3 ppg and 8.2 rpg. As a freshman on a Pac-10 team, Kevin Love averaged 17.5 ppg and 10.6 rpg.

I really, really want the Timberwolves to draft O.J. Mayo. But if Tuberculosis McHale insists on drafting a post player, make it Kevin Love.

This will have to cover us for the year.
The Vikings were absolutely right to trade draft picks for Jared Allen. But it took away one of our "we're wildly hopeful about something we don't even know about yet because we love potential, baby" moments of the year. This week's Wolves' draft will have to sustain us.

Have we reached the point when we must root against the Wolves in order to root for them?
Are we so beyond hope that we should now root for the Wolves to badly blow every possible decision until Glen Taylor has no choice but to fire Kevin McHale? Has it come to that? Clearly McHale has had enough time to show his incompetence. But Glen Taylor has also shown his unwillingness to fire McHale, so we probably just have to grimace and hope for the best.

I'll be in Boston during the draft.
As it happens I will be visiting Boston later this week. So what sort of predictable whining would you like here? About how I'm going to visit the city with all the recent championships? About how I'm following all of Minnesota's sports stars to the place they end up? About how I'm going to the place where Timberwolves' icon Kevin Garnett just won a championship for another fanbase? How I'm going to visit the city with the NBA's greatest dynasty, while mourning the Twin Cities' own lost dynasty, the first dynasty, the Minneapolis Lakers? No, I've done all that.

NBA Draft Links

John Hollinger looks at the big men in the draft.

Wolves' G.M. Jim Stack likes O.J. Mayo (ESPN). He even managed to say "At the end of the day..." You really have no idea how much I hate that expression. Don Seeholzer has more on the Wolves and Mayo, and he manages to say "Bottom line," which is your father's version of "At the end of the day." Jerry Zgoda also apparently heard the same stuff from Stack. Is there anybody else covering it I should link to?

Chad Ford's Mock Draft 5.0 has the Wolves taking O.J. Mayo.

Don Seeholzer's Mock Draft has the Wolves taking O.J. Mayo.

Ian Thomsen's Mock Draft has the Wolves taking Brook Lopez. I have a Minnesota Vikings blanket, and I was once told to "go curl up with my Viking blanket and pretend I have something to live for." I might pack it on the trip to Boston, just in case the Wolves draft Lopez.

FreeDarko's Mock Draft has the Wolves taking Michael Beasley. If by some freakish chance, Beasley falls to #3 and the Wolves draft him, I will stop cursing my lot as a Minnesota sports fan. I will jump and shout and spin about in circles. I will smile and laugh all night long. I will invent new dances and perform them. You'll hear me shouting all the way from Boston. I might dive into the ocean to seek out the whale that stole my Timberwolves hat.

The Timberwolves also like Kevin Love (Pioneer Press). The Timberwolves love everybody right now! Everybody is great!

Steve Aschburner says the Wolves can control much of what happens in the draft.

For T-wolves blogs discussing the draft, check out Canis Hoopus and TWolves Blog.

You know that Seinfeld movie Cry, Cry Again? Check out the Wolves' draft history. And then consider that the 2nd and 3rd best players the Wolves ever drafted (Ray Allen and Brandon Roy, #1 obviously being KG) were traded during the draft.

Dr. Z picks the Vikings to win the Super Bowl

What!?! What!?!

Dr. Z is picking the Minnesota Vikings to win the Super Bowl. No, not like, someday. This year.

People, to be honest, the Vikings aren't even winning a Super Bowl in my dreams. I've had all sorts of dreams about the Vikings winning and losing all sorts of games, but not even my subconscious will allow me to see them win a championship.

In the last decade or so, I've read a lot of off-season prognostications that featured the Vikings in the Super Bowl. Also in the last decade or so, I've compiled a list of every time I've actually seen the Vikings in the Super Bowl. This list is entirely paperless (trying to save the earth and all). Somehow I've managed to keep this list in my head.

So thanks, Dr. Z, for filling my soul with wild dreams. And thanks for encouraging a fan base that is already willing to believe this is the year, every year.

(hat tip to Daily Norseman).

Fantasy Football: I don't need your stinking magazine

I try to save little bits of money wherever possible, and so I rarely purchase a fantasy football magazine. There are just so many web sources with valuable fantasy football information, that I just see a magazine as an unnecessary expense (though it is certainly a useful reference during a draft). So here are just a few of the good fantasy football resources I check out online when preparing for a fantasy draft. You probably know about these things already (I sincerely doubt I'm introducing Yahoo! fantasy sports to anybody here, just praising it), and there are obviously more. And of course a lot of football bloggers also occasionally write up some fantasy stuff.

There are all sorts of websites with detailed statistical information on individual players. Not surprisingly, I prefer pro-football-reference.com. The page is simple to use, loaded with detailed statistical information (including game logs, a necessity if you are going to do your own statistical analysis and rankings), and very hyperlinked.

Yahoo! Fantasy Sports has a lot of the same information you could get from a magazine. The positional rankings could use more statistics, but I've found a lot of interesting articles exploring different fantasy angles (like what to do with pick six, or this interesting look at top five lists).

There are also good blogs with fantasy focus--some of my favorites are Pancake Blocks and Footballguys Blog (though this hasn't been updated as much lately).

These are the sites I peruse for stats and fantasy football discussion and analysis. But I'm on the lookout for more: I'm just starting to get the fantasy football jones (usually it starts much earlier--I've grown up, baby!), and I'm always ready to hear about useful free sites. Any recommendations?

Whatever (or, my trip to Maury)

I cheer for a horrible basketball team. Whatever. You don't know. You don't know. I've been rooting for this horrible basketball team for a long, long time. I do what I want. I used to cheer for Christian Laettner. Whatever. Then my horrible basketball team got a superstar. They had him for 12 years. In those 12 years they only won two playoff series. Whatever. My horrible basketball team has a horrible executive named Kevin McHale. You don't know. You don't know. They have an owner that won't ever fire him. Whatever. So in 12 years they won two playoff series with this superstar. You don't know. Then the horrible executive trades him to another horrible team, mostly for the horrible players on that team that made it a horrible team. Whatever. This horrible executive used to play for that team back when it was good, and he's a former teammate of that team's executive that until now looked pretty horrible. Whatever. So that superstar that I cheered for for 12 years, that got to win two playoff series in 12 seasons, goes to another team. Whatever. That happens to be the team that has won 16 NBA championships. They happen to play in the region/city that has won three Super Bowls and two World Series this decade. Whatever. I do what I want. And then in one season, just one, that superstar wins a championship with another team. Whatever. You don't know. I get to see him celebrating his championship, somehow feeling good for him but miserable for Minnesota. Whatever. I do what I want. So that team now has 17 championships. Whatever. That city now gets its sixth championship parade in eight years. Whatever. The Twin Cities hasn't had a team reach the championship round since 1991. Whatever. I do what I want. I cheer for a horrible basketball team. My horrible basketball team doesn't have a single player that could start for an NBA champion. Whatever. That superstar was held back by a horribly run franchise for 12 seasons, and that's pretty well proven by his championship in one year on a new team with good teammates. Whatever. You don't know. You don't know. I do what I want. I still live here, and I still root for this horrible basketball team, and that superstar I used to root for wins a championship with another team, and we've still got that horrible executive named Kevin McHale that's pretty much trying to make every Timberwolves fan miserable but the freaking owner of the team doesn't seem to give a crap and lets him run this franchise into the ground, a franchise that was almost--almost--saved by the one good decision this horrible executive ever made, drafting this superstar. Whatever. I'll probably never see the Timberwolves win a championship. Whatever. You don't know. Who cares if I cheer for a basketball team that will always fail? I do what I want. Who cares if the best player in that franchise's history goes to another city to bring a franchise its 17th championship and its city a sixth championship parade this decade? I don't care. I do what I want.

Whatever.

Fuck You, Kevin McHale

Dear Kevin McHale,

I've never met you. For all I know, you are a nice person. But as I am watching game 6 of the NBA Finals, all I can think about is how much I fucking hate you.

Yours,
wwtb?

P.S. I wish the Timberwolves didn't even exist. Without a pro franchise in the Twin Cities, I doubtless would have grown up a Celtic fan, and I would be happy right now. I also would not hate you.

Blizzard

A couple Viking links
Judd Zulgad writes that "Peterson has worked on his pass catching and blocking this offseason and the feeling is this should make him more prepared to play in a variety of situations in his second season" (Access Vikings).

Pro-football-reference brings some serious analysis to John David Booty.

Another Link
Bucky Brooks wonders why nobody is signing Daunte Culpepper or Byron Leftwich (Sports Illustrated).

And an argument
O.K., Cold, Hard Football Facts: I get why the Packers would be ranked #1 all-time, and the Giants and Bears would be in the top four. But it also highlights why such a ranking is difficult--these teams are getting the benefit of longevity. They won a lot of titles back when it was a small league (and thus statistically easier to win championships--consider differences of odds like 1/10 v. 1/30, or even 1/14 v. 1/26), titles won before about two thirds of today's teams even existed (and thus they don't really have a chance to compete).

Though I respect old school history, I'd still make an argument for the Cowboys as the #1 franchise of all-time. Here it goes. The Packers have 12 championships in 87 years. Three of those championships came before there were even championship games. Nine of those championships came when the NFL had 9-14 teams. They won in a smaller league, when an individual team had a much better chance to win a title.

The Cowboys have won 5 championships in 48 years of existence. They won their championships in a league with 26-30 teams, meaning it was much more difficult to win championships during this era. They've been to eight Super Bowls, and among all franchises, only the Bears (.580) and Dolphins (.580) have a better winning percentage than the Cowboys (.578), and the Cowboys have a better percentage than the Packers (.558).

Certainly the Packers have an elite all-time franchise, and one can choose to reward the Packers for what they've done in their 87 years. I believe, however, that what the Cowboys have done in their 48 seasons is more impressive than what the Packers have done in their 87 seasons.

Sid Hartman is what he is (or, "Where can I read quotes from Viking coaches praising Viking players?")

I've always thought those who criticize the Minnesota sports media as too positive are rather narrow in their view. Sure, there are a lot of homers in the Minnesota media, but there are also a lot of figures who are frequently very critical, cynical, and negative, and there are a whole host of Twin Cities media members that are somewhere in between. I think the "Minnesota media are too positive and homerish" argument has been used too often for critical media members to present themselves as bastions of martyred truth in a sea of positive spin.

But the critics of a homer media can always point to Sid Hartman. If you're a fan of a Minnesota sports fan that just wants to be optimistic, just wants to believe your favorite teams will be good, just wants to believe in the competence of ownership, management, coaching, and players, then you should really only read Sid Hartman. If like Fox Mulder, you just want to believe, Sid's your guy. And if a Minnesota coach says something good about a Minnesota player, it's very likely Sid Hartman will print it without criticism.

If at the end of the 2007 season, you were worried that the Viking wide receivers weren't very good, you didn't need to worry: Sid Hartman talked to the Viking wide receiver coach in February, and he thought those receivers would be good (right here--George Stewart even praised Troy Williamson. One of my favorite stupid sentences ever: "Stewart said he believes that it's unfair to judge Williamson and what he can do in the NFL, because he never has had the same position coach two years in a row." Somehow Williamson's ability to catch two passes in a row is dependent on having the same position coach two years in a row). For some reason, the Vikes still decided to sign a big free agent wide receiver (oddly, when the Vikes signed Bernard Berrian, Hartman wrote about it but didn't say anything like "Wait a minute, wait a minute: George Stewart told me the receivers they already had were good. Why are they wasting their money on Berrian?" No, Hartman used the opportunity to praise ownership).

And now in June, if you have some concerns about the Viking quarterback position, don't worry: Sid Hartman will talk to some Viking coach, and you will read about how good those quarterbacks look (like here).

So the optimistic, full-fledged purple-tinted glasses Viking fans can always turn to Sid Hartman to fuel their wildest hopes. If you want to to hear Darrell Bevell saying good things about Tarvaris Jackson, just go here and read Sid Hartman reporting it.

To be honest, I really don't mind that Sid Hartman does this: he is what he is, and at this point, we all know it. What actually bothers me is when some people cite Hartman as the proof of the overly positive Minnesota media, and therefore justify their own negative cynicism. Sure, point to Hartman. But don't also forget to point out prominent members of the Twin Cities sports media like Pat Reusse, Tom Powers, Jim Souhan, Dan Barreiro, or Dan Cole that are frequently critical, negative, and/or cynical. If you just say something like "the Minnesota media is full of homers, just look at Sid Hartman!" you're engaging in inductive fallacies like exclusion and hasty generalization (of course, as long as we're on logical fallacies, you can go ahead and accuse me of a Straw Man fallacy in this very sentence).

"We had a pact!"

PV, Holy Hitter, and brother of PV have made a pact. If the Timberwolves draft Brook Lopez this year, we will no longer be Timberwolves fans (until Kevin McHale is no longer running the team). That will be the last step. And if Lopez ends up a superstar, it still won't matter: we've made a pact.

Blizzard

Retirees: Jonathan Ogden and Michael Strahan. Both seem like Hall of Famers, don't they? Odgen was an 11-time Pro Bowler, 4-time all-pro, a Super Bowl champ, a blocker for a 2,ooo yard rusher. Strahan was a 7-time Pro Bowler, 4-time all-pro, a Super Bowl champ, 2-time league leader in sacks, and he finished up with 141.5* sacks. Throughout their careers, a lot of people always spoke very highly of them as some of the best players at their (very important) positions.

Viking Update talks about the Viking return game of the last decade.

The Ragnarok looks at the top ten passing seasons for Viking quarterbacks.

The Daily Norseman asks which was better: Adrian Peterson's week 6 game at Chicago or his week 9 game against San Diego. Though I witnessed the 296 yard game against the Chargers live (my son better get used to hearing that), I think his game against Chicago was bigger. The Vikes won at Soldier Field for the first time since 2000, and though he deserves a lot of credit for both wins, his great performance in a 3 point road win was more meaningful than his great performance in an 18 point home win.

Chris Simms! Chris Simms!

Cold, Hard Football Facts has been ranking franchises. They ranked the Vikes 15th, the highest ranked team without a championship. They call the Vikings "one of the most infuriating teams to have followed." They also talk about the 1969 team that was excellent, but lost to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. This was over 10 years before I was born, but I'm convinced I would have much fewer hangups in life if they had just won that game.

I've been an inconsistent blogger so far this month--a lot of things pulling me away from internet time (which isn't a bad thing). I haven't even really done much fantasy football analysis yet. I'll try to do better soon. But not too soon. And not too much better.

PV at 10,000 Takes

I talk about what we might expect from Bernard Berrian.

Good, good. I left reason and sense behind long ago: now I'm a Viking fan

Jared Allen in the Star Tribune: "We expect to go to the Super Bowl."

The cynical optimism of Viking fans

This is an essay on my life and view as a Viking fan.

To write of my experiences as a Viking fan, I could start with Herschel Walker, with Anthony Carter, with Gary Anderson, with 41-0, with Nate Poole. All of these things have real life resonance for my life as a Viking fan.

But that’s not quite right; for a Viking fan too young to have seen the team play in the 70s, it is the generation that comes before mine that defines being a Viking fan. Why? Because they’re weird.

It’s a generation that has an amazing level of reverence for Bud Grant and his Viking teams. I heard stories about how Chuck Foreman carried the ball, about how quick off the snap Alan Page was, how adept at blocking kicks Matt Blair was, at what a hard hitter Karl Kassulke was. I heard stories about Carl Eller’s safety in the playoffs. I heard stories about the bravado of Joe Kapp and the crazy scrambling of Fran Tarkenton. I know that Bud Grant did not allow heaters on the sidelines of the old Met stadium because he thought they were a distraction. And I know that in any way disparaging any of these Minnesota legends would get you looks of contempt, shock, and horror.

But this generation with such deep reverence for the Vikings of old is also the generation that watched the Vikings lose--in convincing fashion--four Super Bowls. Along with the glories of those Viking teams, I know that Drew Pearson pushed off Nate Wright to give the Dallas Cowboys an undeserved victory over the Vikings in a 1975 playoff game, that a fan threw a whiskey bottle at the referee’s head, and that everybody in Minnesota nods approvingly when telling or hearing the story because clearly the referee had it coming. I know the raw disappointment that can be heard in the voices of that generation of Viking fans when they talk about those teams.

And that’s why they’re weird--there’s an indescribable combination of deep revering devotion and bitter, empty, heart-breaking disappointment. Viking fans of my generation are raised to love and cherish the Purple. But we’re also raised to expect to be disappointed by the Purple.

And at that level, younger Viking fans share a bond with those older fans: the Vikings always succeed in fulfilling our expectation of being disappointed. Fans who were too young to see the Whiskey Bottle Incident or any of the four Super Bowl losses might be old enough to have seen the ball bounce feebly off Darren Nelson’s hands in ‘87. If we were too young for that, we believed Herschel Walker would transcend the very game of football for the Vikings, only to see all our draft picks help the Cowboys win three Super Bowls. If we’re too young for that, we watched Gary Anderson make every single kick during the regular season, only to see him miss the field goal in the NFC Championship game that would have clinched the Super Bowl. Still a little young? Then we might have seen the Vikings lose to the Giants 41-0 in another NFC Championship game. A really young Viking fan? Then you still might have seen the ‘03 Vikings blow a 17-6 week 17 lead over the awful Arizona Cardinals, and you remember where you were when you saw Josh McCown complete a TD pass to Nate Poole with no time left (the ‘03 Vikings were 9-7, but they were 0-4 against the four teams tied with the worst record in the league that year--they will ALWAYS find new and exciting ways to disappoint us).

But lest you think Viking fans are despairing nihilists, think again: we are bitter, but we are always optimistic. When Gary Anderson missed that clinching kick, I thought, “Well, we can still stop Atlanta from scoring.” When Atlanta tied the score, I thought, “Well, there are 30 some seconds left to try score.” When Dennis Green ordered Randall Cunningham to kneel down, I thought, “Well, we can score in overtime.” When the Vikes went three-and-out in overtime, I thought, “Well, we can still stop Atlanta and get the ball back.” And when Atlanta scored and the Vikings missed the Super Bowl, I thought, “Well, there’s always next year.”

And that’s what I’ve said every year since.

A running back's best skill is being a running back

Dominic Rhodes is a running back. His position is running back. He's also returned 135 kicks in his career, and caught 101 passes. But he's run the ball 625 times in his career because he is a running back (550 going into 2007).

That might be why on the back of Dominic Rhodes' 2007 Bowman football card (#35), the following is listed under "Skills:"

"Running the football is the best part of his game"

If running the football is the best part of Rhodes' game, then I am glad that he became a running back. Can you imagine if it said "playing pass defense is the best part of his game"? What if it said "tackling ball carriers is the best part of his game"?

Julius Jones is also a running back. He's had 885 career carries (721 going into 2007). He's had 84 receptions. He's never returned a kick or a punt. He doesn't make tackles, and he doesn't get interceptions.

And listed under "Skills" on his 2007 Bowman football card (#34):

"At his best when carrying the ball."

That's also good news. If Jones is actually at his best when covering wide receivers, kicking field goals, throwing passes, or blocking defensive tackles, then throughout his career coaches have been badly misusing Jones. Luckily, coaches have realized Jones is at his best when carrying the ball (not kicking off, not tackling ball carriers, not throwing passes, not punting, not running routes), he has played running back.

(Thanks to Holy Hitter for getting these cards and pointing out the amazing scouting reports on the backs).

Blizzard

Lakers-Celtics
It's the former Minnesota NBA Finals! The Lakers won their first five championships as the Minneapolis Lakers, and the Celtics' superstar Kevin Garnett...well, you know that already, don't you?

Obviously the Lakers are going to win--when you leave Minnesota, it takes some time to shake off the playoff choking bug. After leaving Minneapolis, the Los Angeles Lakers lost in the NBA Finals seven times before finally winning a championship in L.A. in 1972. The Patriots lost the Super Bowl largely because Randy Moss wasn't quite far enough removed from Minnesota. And now KG is supposed to win a championship immediately after leaving the land of 10,000 lakes? Not bloody likely!

Still, it's exciting when teams with a combined 30 championships meet in the NBA Finals. You can't help but feel this year's NBA Finals really, really means something. I mean, really, aren't you sort of excited just to see those jerseys? Doesn't the green and white and the purple and gold look great together on the basketball court?

I'll be rooting for the Celtics because my soul is not crusty and pestilent, even though that means rooting for yet another Boston championship.

These are the times that try men's souls
In January, I vowed not to read a column by Tom Powers or Jim Souhan for all of 2008. It means fewer "bad sportswriting" features, but I just wanted to be happy, man.

But now it's summer, and there isn't a lot of hard football news, and a football junkie will look for any article on the Vikings at all for a fix. And Powers and Souhan are writing about the Vikes more frequently, providing a possible fix. But I just know I'm going to be annoyed or insulted if I follow the link, so I keep skipping their columns.

It's time
I'm hoping to get down to my serious fantasy football analysis and preparation this week. Regular fantasy football posts won't show up on this blog until sometime after the NBA Finals. But I've got to get my analysis going--the Hazelweird Draft is approximately two months away! We think. As we go further into adulthood, our adult responsibilities make scheduling a draft date more difficult.

Links
Bryant McKinnie is meeting with Roger Goodell (Star Tribune, Pioneer Press, ProFootballTalk). When they negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement, the players need to demand a system in which player discipline and punishment isn't at the subjective discretion of one person.

Viking Update looks at the Vikes' special teams.

Football Outsiders previews its Kubiak top 25.

My current fantasy baseball hero: Adrian Gonzalez.

ESPN sums up 10 great playoff games between the Celtics and Lakers.

Fire Joe Morgan looks at Jemele Hill's column arguing for a Spurs-Pistons Finals.

Joe Namath turns 65 (Hashmarks). If you're like me, you best know Namath from the slow motion highlights of Super Bowl III, and as a key figure in pro football history (choosing the AFL over the NFL, forcing a merger with the Super Bowl victory), and these things make it seem like Namath must have existed sometime in the 15th century. But no, I'm surprised to learn that he's just 65. Or maybe I've reached the age when 65 doesn't seem that old. I don't know.

Jay Cutler, fantasy prospect (Pancake Blocks). Lately I feel like I keep getting Jay Cutler cards. And every time I open a pack of baseball cards, there's usually an Ichiro card. I sort of like that, actually.

Alright, I've got one more episode from Treasures of the Twilight Zone to go watch. Have good times, people.