Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Fantasy Preview: the Tennessee Titans

The premise is simple: I'll tell you what players you can confidently start the season with, and what players should cause your stomach to wobble if you have to start them.

Tennessee Titans
2006 stats at NFL.com and pro-football-reference.com

Vince Young (QB): Here’s what I wrote about Vince Young a few days before the Titans re-signed RB Chris Brown:

“In your head, list off all the current Titan WRs, TEs, and RBs. How many did you get to? And did you name a single viable fantasy starter? No. That’s why Vince Young is a risk, and that’s why you should vomit into the bathtub and crawl in with it if you are starting any other Titans. If Young had some other skill position players around him to throw to, he’d be an expensive fantasy pick. As it is, he’ll still be an expensive fantasy pick, and probably a worthy starter, but also a disappointment.”

Chris Brown changes things for the Titans, but it doesn’t really change much about Vince Young’s fantasy status going into the season. Chris Brown may have an effect on Young’s numbers, but I can’t predict that effect in any way that changes how I feel about Vince Young right now. He's a risky high-potential starter that you should let somebody else in your league draft. If somehow he ends up on your team, start him and hope for good tidings.

But now Vince Young isn't the only valid Titan fantasy starter, because I like

Chris Brown (RB): Chris Brown can be a very productive fantasy RB. In 2004, he was a wonderful fantasy player--when healthy. That’s the problem: he was a good fantasy starter in 11 games. He was less productive on a bad 2005 Titan team, and only played in 5 games in 2006. Brown is a weak starter going into 2007, but still a starter. Will he be a decent start by week 4, week 8, week 12? I don’t know. But he’d be a cheap player (he should go very late in any draft) and a reasonable week one starter.

3 comments:

  1. jetsgrumbler6:31 PM

    you forgot cotchery in your jets post. his stats were nearly identical to coles, and they are headed in oppositte directions. he had over 80/900 and 6 tds. i think 85/1,000 and 8 tds are pretty safe bets. that's solid for #2 reciever, right?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm just not as high on Cotchery as I know others are, and I like Coles. It's possible Cotchery had the best season he's ever going to have last season, whereas Coles has been pretty good for a while. Coles also isn't that old--he's 29 right now, and for comparison sake, Marvin Harrison is still one of the best WRs in the league at 35. I'll still take Coles over Cotchery easily because I like guys that have proven themselves more than guys that have potential. Cotchery could be on his way up, while he might not--I wouldn't want to start him week one. Coles has been a decent WR for a long time--I wouldn't be thrilled to start him, but if I had to I wouldn't panic.

    There are a lot of fantasy owners that love drafting guys like Cotchery that haven't actually produced much but seem to be on the rise; I'm a fantasy owner that loves to draft guys that have proven they're good. That's the main reason I'm not high on Cotchery and I wouldn't mind Coles.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Here's another way to look at it:

    In his best season, Cotchery had 962 yards. He could develop into a very good statistical WR, but he also might not.

    Coles has averaged 942 yards per season in his 7 year career (1,038 in the last 6 seasons). He's proven that this is the type of WR he is: he doesn't have a high ceiling, but he's consistently as good as Cotchery was in his one good year.

    Meanwhile, Cotchery has a higher ceiling because he's young and 2006 could have been a sign he's on the rise--but he also hasn't produced enough in a short time or at all over a longer span for me to be excited about him.

    So I'm not excited about Cotchery. When I look at my own charts, I see nearly 20 WRs I'd rather start over Cotchery. So he might be a valid starter if you're strong at other positions, but to me, he's a weak starter.

    ReplyDelete