The premise is simple: I'll tell you what players you can confidently start the season with, and what players should cause your stomach to wobble if you have to start them.
2006 stats at NFL.com and pro-football-reference.com
Travis Henry (RB): Denver running back, big contract, feature back. Even with Shanahanigans running the team, you have to figure Henry's floor is 1,200 yards and 10 TDs, right? With no conceivable ceiling?
Javon Walker (WR): Walker was one of the best WRs in the NFL last season. You may not find 1,084 yards receiving and 8 TDs (and 123 yards rushing and 1 TD) terribly exciting for fantasy purposes, but keep a few things in mind:
a) The 2006 Broncos ranked 26th in passing attempts, 30th in completions, and 27th in passing yards. Javon Walker put up his very good production on an offense that wasn't throwing the ball a lot.
b) His receiving yardage numbers were double the second best yardage numbers on the team (Rod Smith's 512).
c) The team featured the erratic Jake Plummer (55.2%) quarterbacking for 11 games and rookie Jay Cutler for the last 5 games.
So here's my thinking in 2007: Javon Walker is just as good an individual player as he was in 2006, he's still that much better than any other WR on his team, the Broncos are likely to throw more passes in 2007, and second-year Jay Cutler will be a better quarterback in 2007 than the combination of erratic Jake Plummer and rookie Jay Cutler in 2006.
Jason Elam (K): Elam has been a reliable fantasy kicker for a long, long time.
Defense: Why not? They were solid last season, they've done a lot to try improve the pass rush (their first two draft picks were defensive ends), they've got players capable of forcing turnovers, and they hold opponents to very few points (8th in '06, 4th in '05). It's a solid fantasy unit.