Saturday, November 07, 2009
"It's not fair! It's not fair!"
Last night I dreamed that the 2009 Vikings won the Super Bowl. The dream even featured the next day's aftermath. I was just as giddy and euphoric as I've ever been and probably ever will be. It had finally happened. Everything had changed. At some point I woke up and realized I was in bed. We were just through week eight. The Vikings have never won a Super Bowl.
Thursday, November 05, 2009
NATIONAL FRIDAY LEAGUE (week nine)
2009 Vikings: first half
2009 Minnesota Vikings
7-1, including four wins road wins, 5-0 in the conference and 3-0 in the division, and five home games remaining. It's hard to be in much better shape right now. Let's look at some things that happened in the first half and how it might be relevant to the second half.
Good Surprises
Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin: Rice is on pace for 1,000 yards, and has started to fulfill the potential he flashed two years ago. I thought Harvin would make a handful of important plays per game, but I didn't expect him to be this dynamic.
Brett Favre: I'm still worried about whether he can be this effective in January, but I didn't expect him to be this dominant.
Adrian Peterson's workload: He's currently on pace for 326 carries: a manageable load far short of his 363 carries last season. If the Vikes can win without wearing Peterson down, all the better.
Special Teams: the return coverage has greatly improved, Percy Harvin has been a spectacular kick returner, and Darius Reynaud and Jaymar Johnson have been effective as punt returners. Add in Ryan Longwell's kicking, and the Viking special teams have been very good.
Pass Protection: it was a mess during the first two or three weeks, and since then has been really terrific.
Disappointments
Tyrell Johnson and Madieu Williams: the safeties aren't making enough plays, and they're also a reason the Vikes are vulnerable. Pass defense as a whole has been pretty bad when the Vikes get a lead.
Bernard Berrian: I'm really hoping for an explosive second half of the season from Berrian. Injuries have hampered him in a lot of ways so far, but he's good enough to be better than he has been.
Chester Taylor: 2.7 yards per rush is pretty lousy, and his dropped pass on a screen play was a big factor in the Vikes' one defeat.
Antoine Winfield's injury: Not only because it really affects the entire defense, but because he's so fun to watch play.
The consistency of the running game: whether it's AP's style,struggles on the offensive line, of the defense's focus, I feel far too many of the running plays get stuffed at the line.
Jared Allen: 10.5 sacks is on pace for 21, which would be short of the NFL single-season record. Allen should be doing more.*
*of course I'm joking. But Allen's spectacular play is not a surprise, and as he's arguably the best defensive player in the league right now and in position to win Defensive Player of the Year (essentially an MVP award for defenders, since only QBs and RBs are eligible for MVP), I have to mention him in my mid-way assessment. While we're at it, the versatile dominance of Kevin Williams needs to be once again appreciated, though it is completely unsurprising.
Why I'll continue to fear the Packers
In 2008, the Colts beat the Chargers in the regular season, but lost to them in the postseason. The Eagles beat the Cardinals in the regular season, but lost to them in the postseason. The Titans beat the Ravens in the regular season, but lost to them in the postseason.
In 2007, three of the Giants' four playoff victories were against teams that defeated them during the regular season (the Cowboys had beaten them twice).
During those years, there were also teams that defeated the same opponent in both the regular season and the postseason (the '07 Jags beat the Steelers twice, the '07 Chargers beat the Colts twice, the '08 Ravens beat the Dolphins twice, the '08 Steelers beat the Chargers twice and the Ravens thrice). But if I looked at recent history, I'm not sure I could be confident that a regular season outcome will predict a postseason outcome.
I'll fear the Packers until there's no possibility they could face the Vikings in the playoffs.
Special Teams
Grant's Tomb points out the subtle importance of some special teams play:
"Some of the ways the special teams helped the Vikings were subtle – like punt returner Jaymar Johnson’s refusal to call for fair catches or not catch them at all and let the ball hit the Lambeau Field turf and roll deep into Viking territory on Packer punts. [...] his fearlessness (and sure-handedness) in catching and returning punts shaved a few extra yards off the total the Vikings offence had to gain to get into scoring position."
I remember hearing Bill Parcells (don't ask me when, where, or why) talk about a playoff game between his Giants and the Washington team. According to Parcells, the Giants' punt returner consistently called fair catches, while the Washington punt returner let the ball bounce. Parcells estimated that the difference accounted for around 100 yards of field position. Johnson saves yards by catching the ball in traffic rather than letting it bounce (even when he does fair catch it), and that contribution shouldn't be underestimated.
One reason the Vikings' offense has been so successful at scoring points is because they've consistently had good field position. In '09, Percy Harvin is averaging 30.7 yards per kickoff return and the Viking punt returners are averaging a collective 10.7 yards per return. And, as DC points out, Johnson is willing to field the ball to save the Vikes the yardage a punt hitting the ground could cost them.
The field position helps the Vikes score points and limits some of the wear and tear key players like Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson might have to endure if they were forced to drive the bulk of the field every drive.
Links
Brett Favre had the best quarterbacking day of Week 8 (Football Outsiders).
Jason Cole talks to a scout that is impressed with the Vikings; don't read this if you don't like getting your hopes up (Yahoo!).
Don Banks provides some more optimism going forward (Sports Illustrated).
Mark Craig asks the question that I can't help thinking about every day: what if the Vikings and Saints meet in the playoffs (Star Tribune)?
Comparing Adrian Peterson 2008 to Adrian Peterson 2009 (Access Vikings).
Fantasy Box
Week 8 was my first week of lineup regret in 2009: Joseph Addai and Austin Collie were in, Pierre Thomas and Bernard Berrian were out. Lineup regret is my least favorite part of fantasy football.
Intriguing Games
Week Nine Matchups
The bye means relaxing football to follow, and we've got a lot of good games to follow.
Cardinals/Bears: are these teams playoff contenders? Do these teams suck? Depends on the week.
Ravens/Bengals: the three-way race for the AFC North is interesting.
Packers/Buccaneers: during the Vikes' bye, we know we won't get to see the Vikings win. We still can hope to see the Packers lose.
Dolphins/Patriots: after they beat up on Tennesse and Tampa, then took a week off, aren't we anxious to see if they keep rolling? This week I finally partook of the annual tradition of adding Laurence Maroney to my Hazelweird fantasy team.
Texans/Colts: if you depend on Matt Schaub or Andre Johnson for your fantasy prospects, take note: the 2008 Colts allowed six passing touchdowns, a total so low I'm grammatically required to spell out the number. Through seven games the 2009 Colts have allowed three touchdown passes. While they can be run on, the Colts just don't give up passing touchdowns. I'm pretty enthused to be riding the Manning-Wayne combo.
Panthers/Saints: First down, DeAngelo Williams. Second down, Jonathan Stewart. Third down, DeAngelo Williams. Maybe mix in an end-around to Steve Smith. Just do it: run down the Saints' throat, knock them down a peg, help me find another cliche, and resurrect your season to go to .500.
Titans/49ers: another contest of dueling running backs: Chris Johnson and Frank Gore try to top each other.
Chargers/Giants: fantasy matchup of the week? Lots of starters here.
Cowboys/Eagles: Another rich fantasy matchup.
Ramblings on Sacks and Rating
At the Star Tribune, Mark Craig points out that Aaron Rodgers leads the league in passer rating, and also takes a high number of sacks:
"Rodgers' lofty passer rating and his ridiculously high sack total are one of the stranger contrasts in the league at the halfway point this season."
But the contrast isn't really related: sacks and lost yardage from sacks have no impact on a quarterback's rating. It's a problem with using passer rating: throwing the ball away hurts your rating, while taking a sack has no impact. Losing a down and yardage from a sack really hurts a QB's team, yet passer rating doesn't account for it. But the point is that it's not any "strange contrast" to see a high sack total with a high passer rating.
Craig then compares Rodgers' sack total to the sack totals of the #2 and #3 ranked QBs in passer rating:
"Peyton Manning is No. 2 in passer rating (109.3). He's been sacked five times. Drew Brees is No. 3 in passer rating (107.6). He's been sacked 11 times."
Stopping the comparison with the #2 and #3 passers is a bit deceiving: look further at the league leaders in passer rating and you'll see that among the league leaders in sacks, nobody is close to Rodgers, but several have a lot more sacks than Manning or Brees do. Rodgers actually reminds me of Ben Roethlisberger. Each holds the ball a long time, and while sometimes that results in a sack, sometimes that also results in a big play. Either way, the sack total has no impact on either QB's passer rating.
There's another problem here: passer rating is an efficiency stat, while sacks are a total stat. I'd like it better if the comparison were between two efficiency stats: passer rating and sack rate (sack rate is a better number to look at than sacks anyway). Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 12.1% of the time, an extremely high rate. But his rate isn't that far ahead of Ben Roethlisberger's rate in 2006: that year Roethlisberger was sacked 10.4% of the time, and still managed to post a 104.1 rating. If you want a comparison to this season, Donovan McNabb has a passer rating of 103.2, but is getting sacked 9.5% of the time.
If there is any correlation between a high passer rating and a low sack total, it is that an elite QB is likely to have both. But that's not always the case either.
Free advertising on a little-read niche blog.
Community is my favorite show on network TV right now. You should watch it.
This has been free advertising on a little-read niche blog. If Joel McHale would like to send me a "The Soup" coffee mug, I wouldn't turn it down.
Weekend
The Vikings have a bye this week; I've chosen this weekend to take my family out of town to visit my parents. I used a semicolon to link these two independent clauses to show that they are related. The semicolon is my favorite punctuation mark; it is perfect for combining two independent clauses into the same sentence.
Have a good weekend, everybody. Except Packer, Bear, and Saint fans.
2009 Minnesota Vikings
7-1, including four wins road wins, 5-0 in the conference and 3-0 in the division, and five home games remaining. It's hard to be in much better shape right now. Let's look at some things that happened in the first half and how it might be relevant to the second half.
Good Surprises
Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin: Rice is on pace for 1,000 yards, and has started to fulfill the potential he flashed two years ago. I thought Harvin would make a handful of important plays per game, but I didn't expect him to be this dynamic.
Brett Favre: I'm still worried about whether he can be this effective in January, but I didn't expect him to be this dominant.
Adrian Peterson's workload: He's currently on pace for 326 carries: a manageable load far short of his 363 carries last season. If the Vikes can win without wearing Peterson down, all the better.
Special Teams: the return coverage has greatly improved, Percy Harvin has been a spectacular kick returner, and Darius Reynaud and Jaymar Johnson have been effective as punt returners. Add in Ryan Longwell's kicking, and the Viking special teams have been very good.
Pass Protection: it was a mess during the first two or three weeks, and since then has been really terrific.
Disappointments
Tyrell Johnson and Madieu Williams: the safeties aren't making enough plays, and they're also a reason the Vikes are vulnerable. Pass defense as a whole has been pretty bad when the Vikes get a lead.
Bernard Berrian: I'm really hoping for an explosive second half of the season from Berrian. Injuries have hampered him in a lot of ways so far, but he's good enough to be better than he has been.
Chester Taylor: 2.7 yards per rush is pretty lousy, and his dropped pass on a screen play was a big factor in the Vikes' one defeat.
Antoine Winfield's injury: Not only because it really affects the entire defense, but because he's so fun to watch play.
The consistency of the running game: whether it's AP's style,struggles on the offensive line, of the defense's focus, I feel far too many of the running plays get stuffed at the line.
Jared Allen: 10.5 sacks is on pace for 21, which would be short of the NFL single-season record. Allen should be doing more.*
*of course I'm joking. But Allen's spectacular play is not a surprise, and as he's arguably the best defensive player in the league right now and in position to win Defensive Player of the Year (essentially an MVP award for defenders, since only QBs and RBs are eligible for MVP), I have to mention him in my mid-way assessment. While we're at it, the versatile dominance of Kevin Williams needs to be once again appreciated, though it is completely unsurprising.
Why I'll continue to fear the Packers
In 2008, the Colts beat the Chargers in the regular season, but lost to them in the postseason. The Eagles beat the Cardinals in the regular season, but lost to them in the postseason. The Titans beat the Ravens in the regular season, but lost to them in the postseason.
In 2007, three of the Giants' four playoff victories were against teams that defeated them during the regular season (the Cowboys had beaten them twice).
During those years, there were also teams that defeated the same opponent in both the regular season and the postseason (the '07 Jags beat the Steelers twice, the '07 Chargers beat the Colts twice, the '08 Ravens beat the Dolphins twice, the '08 Steelers beat the Chargers twice and the Ravens thrice). But if I looked at recent history, I'm not sure I could be confident that a regular season outcome will predict a postseason outcome.
I'll fear the Packers until there's no possibility they could face the Vikings in the playoffs.
Special Teams
Grant's Tomb points out the subtle importance of some special teams play:
"Some of the ways the special teams helped the Vikings were subtle – like punt returner Jaymar Johnson’s refusal to call for fair catches or not catch them at all and let the ball hit the Lambeau Field turf and roll deep into Viking territory on Packer punts. [...] his fearlessness (and sure-handedness) in catching and returning punts shaved a few extra yards off the total the Vikings offence had to gain to get into scoring position."
I remember hearing Bill Parcells (don't ask me when, where, or why) talk about a playoff game between his Giants and the Washington team. According to Parcells, the Giants' punt returner consistently called fair catches, while the Washington punt returner let the ball bounce. Parcells estimated that the difference accounted for around 100 yards of field position. Johnson saves yards by catching the ball in traffic rather than letting it bounce (even when he does fair catch it), and that contribution shouldn't be underestimated.
One reason the Vikings' offense has been so successful at scoring points is because they've consistently had good field position. In '09, Percy Harvin is averaging 30.7 yards per kickoff return and the Viking punt returners are averaging a collective 10.7 yards per return. And, as DC points out, Johnson is willing to field the ball to save the Vikes the yardage a punt hitting the ground could cost them.
The field position helps the Vikes score points and limits some of the wear and tear key players like Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson might have to endure if they were forced to drive the bulk of the field every drive.
Links
Brett Favre had the best quarterbacking day of Week 8 (Football Outsiders).
Jason Cole talks to a scout that is impressed with the Vikings; don't read this if you don't like getting your hopes up (Yahoo!).
Don Banks provides some more optimism going forward (Sports Illustrated).
Mark Craig asks the question that I can't help thinking about every day: what if the Vikings and Saints meet in the playoffs (Star Tribune)?
Comparing Adrian Peterson 2008 to Adrian Peterson 2009 (Access Vikings).
Fantasy Box
Week 8 was my first week of lineup regret in 2009: Joseph Addai and Austin Collie were in, Pierre Thomas and Bernard Berrian were out. Lineup regret is my least favorite part of fantasy football.
Intriguing Games
Week Nine Matchups
The bye means relaxing football to follow, and we've got a lot of good games to follow.
Cardinals/Bears: are these teams playoff contenders? Do these teams suck? Depends on the week.
Ravens/Bengals: the three-way race for the AFC North is interesting.
Packers/Buccaneers: during the Vikes' bye, we know we won't get to see the Vikings win. We still can hope to see the Packers lose.
Dolphins/Patriots: after they beat up on Tennesse and Tampa, then took a week off, aren't we anxious to see if they keep rolling? This week I finally partook of the annual tradition of adding Laurence Maroney to my Hazelweird fantasy team.
Texans/Colts: if you depend on Matt Schaub or Andre Johnson for your fantasy prospects, take note: the 2008 Colts allowed six passing touchdowns, a total so low I'm grammatically required to spell out the number. Through seven games the 2009 Colts have allowed three touchdown passes. While they can be run on, the Colts just don't give up passing touchdowns. I'm pretty enthused to be riding the Manning-Wayne combo.
Panthers/Saints: First down, DeAngelo Williams. Second down, Jonathan Stewart. Third down, DeAngelo Williams. Maybe mix in an end-around to Steve Smith. Just do it: run down the Saints' throat, knock them down a peg, help me find another cliche, and resurrect your season to go to .500.
Titans/49ers: another contest of dueling running backs: Chris Johnson and Frank Gore try to top each other.
Chargers/Giants: fantasy matchup of the week? Lots of starters here.
Cowboys/Eagles: Another rich fantasy matchup.
Ramblings on Sacks and Rating
At the Star Tribune, Mark Craig points out that Aaron Rodgers leads the league in passer rating, and also takes a high number of sacks:
"Rodgers' lofty passer rating and his ridiculously high sack total are one of the stranger contrasts in the league at the halfway point this season."
But the contrast isn't really related: sacks and lost yardage from sacks have no impact on a quarterback's rating. It's a problem with using passer rating: throwing the ball away hurts your rating, while taking a sack has no impact. Losing a down and yardage from a sack really hurts a QB's team, yet passer rating doesn't account for it. But the point is that it's not any "strange contrast" to see a high sack total with a high passer rating.
Craig then compares Rodgers' sack total to the sack totals of the #2 and #3 ranked QBs in passer rating:
"Peyton Manning is No. 2 in passer rating (109.3). He's been sacked five times. Drew Brees is No. 3 in passer rating (107.6). He's been sacked 11 times."
Stopping the comparison with the #2 and #3 passers is a bit deceiving: look further at the league leaders in passer rating and you'll see that among the league leaders in sacks, nobody is close to Rodgers, but several have a lot more sacks than Manning or Brees do. Rodgers actually reminds me of Ben Roethlisberger. Each holds the ball a long time, and while sometimes that results in a sack, sometimes that also results in a big play. Either way, the sack total has no impact on either QB's passer rating.
There's another problem here: passer rating is an efficiency stat, while sacks are a total stat. I'd like it better if the comparison were between two efficiency stats: passer rating and sack rate (sack rate is a better number to look at than sacks anyway). Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 12.1% of the time, an extremely high rate. But his rate isn't that far ahead of Ben Roethlisberger's rate in 2006: that year Roethlisberger was sacked 10.4% of the time, and still managed to post a 104.1 rating. If you want a comparison to this season, Donovan McNabb has a passer rating of 103.2, but is getting sacked 9.5% of the time.
If there is any correlation between a high passer rating and a low sack total, it is that an elite QB is likely to have both. But that's not always the case either.
Free advertising on a little-read niche blog.
Community is my favorite show on network TV right now. You should watch it.
This has been free advertising on a little-read niche blog. If Joel McHale would like to send me a "The Soup" coffee mug, I wouldn't turn it down.
Weekend
The Vikings have a bye this week; I've chosen this weekend to take my family out of town to visit my parents. I used a semicolon to link these two independent clauses to show that they are related. The semicolon is my favorite punctuation mark; it is perfect for combining two independent clauses into the same sentence.
Have a good weekend, everybody. Except Packer, Bear, and Saint fans.
Sunday, November 01, 2009
Trailing Clouds of Heaven: Vikings 38, Packers 26
Vikings 38, Packers 26 (ESPN Box Score)
The Vikings scored their first win at Lambeau Field since 2005, and also their first season sweep of the Packers since 2005.
It's hard to question that this game meant more to Packer fans than to Viking fans. Obviously Viking fans always want to see the Vikes beat the Packers, but be honest: at a personal level, how much does Favre's Reveng On The Packers do for you? If Favre were the Bears' QB returning to Lambeau, I'd be rooting for a 2-0 Bears' victory. It's obvious that this game meant a great deal to Packer fans (and to Favre fans who took their loyalties with the individual player).
But for Viking fans, it's still a sweet, sweet victory. Victories at Lambeau are rare for the Vikes, and season sweeps of the Packers are even rarer. The way the victory came--dominating the game to a 24-3 lead in the 3rd quarter, committing silly mistakes and playing bad defense to let the Packers back in the game, but coming back offensively to never let the Packers take the lead back and finally sealing the game with a fifth touchdown--leaves a feeling of both exuberance and relief. The victory really hampers the Packers' chances of winning the division (but they still have the talent to finish the year well; I really don't want to have to face them as a Wild Card opponent in the playoffs), and it pushes the Vikes to 3-0 in the division and 5-0 in the conference.
Percy Harvin trips the light fantastic
5-84-1 receiving, 5-175 returning kicks: it's hard to define how many points Harvin helps put on the board for the Vikings. His 51 yard touchdown reception was his best offensive play of the season, but he's been constantly dangerous as a kick returner, frequently giving the Vikings excellent starting field position (in addition to his two touchdown returns).
The Vikings have been remarkably successful in the draft during the Childress era: their four first round picks have netted them Chad Greenway, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen (via trade), and Percy Harvin. Greenway is a very good starting linebacker, Peterson and Allen are superstar performers, and Harvin is a dynamic, playmaking force.
Whatever else happens, the Vikes will have a good wide receiving trio of Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, and Bernard Berrian for years to come. They are a good group because while physically each has different skills and can excel at different types of things, all three are also capable of big plays. Favre has brought out the most from them, but I believe they'll bring the most out of whatever quarterback succeeds Favre.
Brett Favre sings the body electric
He's been playing so well this season that a four touchdown, zero interception game, while superb, was not out of the ordinary.
Jared Allen
The Vikings had six sacks, and the Viking defensive linemen deflected four passes. Allen was once again the star, getting three sacks plus another tackle for loss. Many of us were ecstatic when the Vikings aquired Allen in April 2008, but if we had known just how dominant he'd be, especially against the Packers, we'd probably have started floating off the ground.
Ray Edwards
Edwards had two sacks and two pass deflections, and he was credited with four quarterback hits. He's had a couple outstanding games this year. He's overshadowed on the line by Allen, Kevin Williams, and Pat Williams, but he's held his own joining them on (let's say it) the best defensive line in the league.
Adrian Peterson
And let's not forget AP's 141 yards from scrimmage plus a touchdown run on fourth and goal. The yards haven't been easy for Peterson this year: teams are stuffing him around the line a lot. But he runs hard and when he breaks out it's a joy to watch.
Playcalling
I'd like to praise a few decisions by the Viking coaching staff. Twice in the red zone the Vikings went for it on 4th and short: once they were successful, and once they were not. But the combined attempts made for a success: they got seven points instead of the maximum six that two field goal attempts would have netted, plus the failed attempt still left the Packers in bad field position.
When Mason Crosby missed a field goal late to give the Vikings the ball with a five point lead, I thought the Vikings played it perfectly. The first play was a screen pass to Adrian Peterson, a safe play that's not likely to stop the clock but gets the ball to your best offensive player: Peterson took the ball for a devastating 44 yards, setting the Vikes up for at least a field goal to go up eight. After two unsuccessful runs (that drained the Packers' timeouts), it looked like the Vikes might again play too safe as they did against Baltimore. But they called a pass play that was both aggressive and safe, a quick pass over the middle that Bernard Berrian was able to get to the end zone for the clinching touchdown.
Overall the Vikes were aggressive offensively, coming out and trying to put the game away. We question Brad Childress's decisions a lot (since I have a parentheses, why not: I think they called runs on first down too much today), but I think he can be praised for this game.
Does Aaron Rodgers look dead inside?
I don't want to try too hard to read the facial expressions of athletes. But when I see Rodgers against the Vikings, the expression on his face makes him look empty inside. Whether facing Favre has gotten to him, or (more likely) facing the Viking pass rushers has him on edge, he looks like a hollow man that doesn't want to be there and doesn't know how to rise to the moment.
That doesn't mean I wasn't terrified that he was in the process of leading a comeback, and he showed real moxie (it's a fun word: just embrace it) in the second half evading pass rushers and hitting receivers downfield. But he just looked empty.
The Vikings' Weakness
I think the Viking pass defense is solid overall, because the pass rush is so threatening: they rush throws, tip passes, and sack the passer, putting the offense in bad spots. Their dominance against the run helps, because when teams attempt offensive balance, they end up in must-throw situations. However, the Vikings have trouble holding a lead because of the weakness of the secondary. When teams go into all-throw mode, it's hard to sustain a pass rush every down, and teams are willing to take more risks against the rush and throwing downfield. As a result, we've seen teams move the ball on the Vikings successfully when they are down.
It's a dangerous weakness, especially if the Vikes are facing a team like the Saints in the playoffs. It might be a less glaring weakness when Antoine Winfield returns.
But the Vikes are good
Two sort of flukish plays made this score closer than it might have been: John Sullivan's early snap not only got recovered by the Packers, but it bounced around and flew backward to give the Packers better field position with it. And when the Packers had to setttle for a field goal after a nice drive to leave the score at 24-6, the Packers squib kicked and Brian Robison conjured the spirit of Mel Gray and tried to run and then fumbled--instead of giving the Vikes good field position to score a dagger touchdown, the Packers had good field position and used it to cut the score to 24-13.
I'm not just saying this game could have been a blowout but for those flukish plays. I'm saying in the past, those flukish plays probably would have begun a Viking collapse resulting in a loss. But they didn't, because the Vikes have the talent to overcome those things.
The Packers also had a lot of penalties that helped the Vikings, but the Packers are among the league leaders in penalties and penalty yards: that's a feature of their team, not an abberation that only aided the Vikings today.
2009's first half
So far, it would be hard for 2009 to have gone any better. The Vikes are 7-1, including 4-1 on the road. Their only loss was to an AFC team, and they've already swept one of their rivals competing for the division title.
Looking ahead
So much emotional energy went into this game against the Packers (and not just because of Favre), it might have been easy to overlook the reality that after the win, the Vikings are now 7-1, and they still have five remaining home games.
The Vikings come out of the bye with three straight home games: against the Lions, against the Seahawks, and against the Bears. It's hard to envision the Vikings not being 9-1 when they host Chicago (if they play really lousy, they could lose to Seattle, but they should win at home). They get a bye right in the middle of the season, and hopefully an injured Antoine Winfield and a hampered Bernard Berrian get the chance to recover and play well in the second half of the season.
The Vikes can throw and run. They can stop the run and they can rush the passer. Their special teams have been generally good to outstanding. Things are looking good.
Enjoy the bye week, folks. Skol.
The Vikings scored their first win at Lambeau Field since 2005, and also their first season sweep of the Packers since 2005.
It's hard to question that this game meant more to Packer fans than to Viking fans. Obviously Viking fans always want to see the Vikes beat the Packers, but be honest: at a personal level, how much does Favre's Reveng On The Packers do for you? If Favre were the Bears' QB returning to Lambeau, I'd be rooting for a 2-0 Bears' victory. It's obvious that this game meant a great deal to Packer fans (and to Favre fans who took their loyalties with the individual player).
But for Viking fans, it's still a sweet, sweet victory. Victories at Lambeau are rare for the Vikes, and season sweeps of the Packers are even rarer. The way the victory came--dominating the game to a 24-3 lead in the 3rd quarter, committing silly mistakes and playing bad defense to let the Packers back in the game, but coming back offensively to never let the Packers take the lead back and finally sealing the game with a fifth touchdown--leaves a feeling of both exuberance and relief. The victory really hampers the Packers' chances of winning the division (but they still have the talent to finish the year well; I really don't want to have to face them as a Wild Card opponent in the playoffs), and it pushes the Vikes to 3-0 in the division and 5-0 in the conference.
Percy Harvin trips the light fantastic
5-84-1 receiving, 5-175 returning kicks: it's hard to define how many points Harvin helps put on the board for the Vikings. His 51 yard touchdown reception was his best offensive play of the season, but he's been constantly dangerous as a kick returner, frequently giving the Vikings excellent starting field position (in addition to his two touchdown returns).
The Vikings have been remarkably successful in the draft during the Childress era: their four first round picks have netted them Chad Greenway, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen (via trade), and Percy Harvin. Greenway is a very good starting linebacker, Peterson and Allen are superstar performers, and Harvin is a dynamic, playmaking force.
Whatever else happens, the Vikes will have a good wide receiving trio of Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, and Bernard Berrian for years to come. They are a good group because while physically each has different skills and can excel at different types of things, all three are also capable of big plays. Favre has brought out the most from them, but I believe they'll bring the most out of whatever quarterback succeeds Favre.
Brett Favre sings the body electric
He's been playing so well this season that a four touchdown, zero interception game, while superb, was not out of the ordinary.
Jared Allen
The Vikings had six sacks, and the Viking defensive linemen deflected four passes. Allen was once again the star, getting three sacks plus another tackle for loss. Many of us were ecstatic when the Vikings aquired Allen in April 2008, but if we had known just how dominant he'd be, especially against the Packers, we'd probably have started floating off the ground.
Ray Edwards
Edwards had two sacks and two pass deflections, and he was credited with four quarterback hits. He's had a couple outstanding games this year. He's overshadowed on the line by Allen, Kevin Williams, and Pat Williams, but he's held his own joining them on (let's say it) the best defensive line in the league.
Adrian Peterson
And let's not forget AP's 141 yards from scrimmage plus a touchdown run on fourth and goal. The yards haven't been easy for Peterson this year: teams are stuffing him around the line a lot. But he runs hard and when he breaks out it's a joy to watch.
Playcalling
I'd like to praise a few decisions by the Viking coaching staff. Twice in the red zone the Vikings went for it on 4th and short: once they were successful, and once they were not. But the combined attempts made for a success: they got seven points instead of the maximum six that two field goal attempts would have netted, plus the failed attempt still left the Packers in bad field position.
When Mason Crosby missed a field goal late to give the Vikings the ball with a five point lead, I thought the Vikings played it perfectly. The first play was a screen pass to Adrian Peterson, a safe play that's not likely to stop the clock but gets the ball to your best offensive player: Peterson took the ball for a devastating 44 yards, setting the Vikes up for at least a field goal to go up eight. After two unsuccessful runs (that drained the Packers' timeouts), it looked like the Vikes might again play too safe as they did against Baltimore. But they called a pass play that was both aggressive and safe, a quick pass over the middle that Bernard Berrian was able to get to the end zone for the clinching touchdown.
Overall the Vikes were aggressive offensively, coming out and trying to put the game away. We question Brad Childress's decisions a lot (since I have a parentheses, why not: I think they called runs on first down too much today), but I think he can be praised for this game.
Does Aaron Rodgers look dead inside?
I don't want to try too hard to read the facial expressions of athletes. But when I see Rodgers against the Vikings, the expression on his face makes him look empty inside. Whether facing Favre has gotten to him, or (more likely) facing the Viking pass rushers has him on edge, he looks like a hollow man that doesn't want to be there and doesn't know how to rise to the moment.
That doesn't mean I wasn't terrified that he was in the process of leading a comeback, and he showed real moxie (it's a fun word: just embrace it) in the second half evading pass rushers and hitting receivers downfield. But he just looked empty.
The Vikings' Weakness
I think the Viking pass defense is solid overall, because the pass rush is so threatening: they rush throws, tip passes, and sack the passer, putting the offense in bad spots. Their dominance against the run helps, because when teams attempt offensive balance, they end up in must-throw situations. However, the Vikings have trouble holding a lead because of the weakness of the secondary. When teams go into all-throw mode, it's hard to sustain a pass rush every down, and teams are willing to take more risks against the rush and throwing downfield. As a result, we've seen teams move the ball on the Vikings successfully when they are down.
It's a dangerous weakness, especially if the Vikes are facing a team like the Saints in the playoffs. It might be a less glaring weakness when Antoine Winfield returns.
But the Vikes are good
Two sort of flukish plays made this score closer than it might have been: John Sullivan's early snap not only got recovered by the Packers, but it bounced around and flew backward to give the Packers better field position with it. And when the Packers had to setttle for a field goal after a nice drive to leave the score at 24-6, the Packers squib kicked and Brian Robison conjured the spirit of Mel Gray and tried to run and then fumbled--instead of giving the Vikes good field position to score a dagger touchdown, the Packers had good field position and used it to cut the score to 24-13.
I'm not just saying this game could have been a blowout but for those flukish plays. I'm saying in the past, those flukish plays probably would have begun a Viking collapse resulting in a loss. But they didn't, because the Vikes have the talent to overcome those things.
The Packers also had a lot of penalties that helped the Vikings, but the Packers are among the league leaders in penalties and penalty yards: that's a feature of their team, not an abberation that only aided the Vikings today.
2009's first half
So far, it would be hard for 2009 to have gone any better. The Vikes are 7-1, including 4-1 on the road. Their only loss was to an AFC team, and they've already swept one of their rivals competing for the division title.
Looking ahead
So much emotional energy went into this game against the Packers (and not just because of Favre), it might have been easy to overlook the reality that after the win, the Vikings are now 7-1, and they still have five remaining home games.
The Vikings come out of the bye with three straight home games: against the Lions, against the Seahawks, and against the Bears. It's hard to envision the Vikings not being 9-1 when they host Chicago (if they play really lousy, they could lose to Seattle, but they should win at home). They get a bye right in the middle of the season, and hopefully an injured Antoine Winfield and a hampered Bernard Berrian get the chance to recover and play well in the second half of the season.
The Vikes can throw and run. They can stop the run and they can rush the passer. Their special teams have been generally good to outstanding. Things are looking good.
Enjoy the bye week, folks. Skol.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
NATIONAL FRIDAY LEAGUE (week 8)
Vikings-Packers Preview
Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
Last Matchup: Vikings 30, Packers 23
The first matchup between these teams featured some defensive performances on both sides that will be difficult to repeat. The Packers held Adrian Peterson to 2.2 yards per rush attempt, and stripped the ball from him, returning it for a touchdown: I don’t believe they can stop him so effectively twice in one season. The Vikings sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times, including a forced fumble and one for a safety, and harried him all game long: though the Viking pass rush has been consistently good this season, it’s hard to envision that sort of success again.
The anomalies in this matchup go further. In their previous three games against the Packers, the Vikes have allowed four non-offensive touchdowns (a punt return, an interception return and a punt return, and fumble recovery return). It’s improbable for the Packers to keep that sort of run going, too, and the Viking defense has been successful at limiting the Packers’ offensive points. If the Vikings can avoid turnovers and cover punt returns well, they have a good chance at controlling the game.
The Packer offense seems successful at connecting on long passes: Rodgers averages 14.1 yards per completion, and Donald Driver (17.7) and Greg Jennings (16.2) each have high yards per reception. The Viking safeties Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson have struggled, but the Cover-2 scheme seems designed to prevent long passing plays. I think if the Vikes prevent the big play and force the Packers to try sustain long drives, they’ll be successful at stopping drives.
It’s pretty rare for the Vikes to sweep the Packers, and it is usually under special circumstances. They did it in ’98, when they were particularly awesome, and they did it in ’05, when the Packers were particularly terrible.
It’s a critical game, obviously. A win puts the Vikes 2.5 games ahead of the Packers with a season sweep; a loss puts the Vikes .5 games ahead with a season split. Either way, it’s worth noting that after the bye, the Vikes play three straight games in Thunderdome, against the Lions, Seahawks, and Bears. This is a big rivalry game, but the game won’t make or break the season for us.
Good or Bad?
Naufahu Tahi and Jim Kleinsasser have combined for 11 receptions this season. I scream into the abyss every time I see a pass targeted to either of these players—neither is a playmaker of any sort. On the other hand, the fact that they catch some passes might be an indicator that Brett Favre has been willing to check down rather than force something deep. Neither are generally a first option on any passing play, and a pass directed toward either usually amounts to slightly better than throwing it away. So maybe every time Favre throws to Tahi or Kleinsasser, we should be recognizing that it was NOT a pass he threw into double-coverage.
George Costanza and Me
(cross-posted at That’s how we do it in the T.C.)
In one episode of Seinfeld, George is on the verge of success, which fills him with anxiety and dread. He frets to his therapist, “God would never let me be successful. He’ll kill me first. He’ll never let me be happy.” “I thought you didn’t believe in God,” the therapist says. “I do for the bad things!” George replies.
I feel personally connected to the Minnesota Vikings. Their shortcomings are my shortcomings. When they fail, I feel I have failed, that I have opened myself up personally to the ridicule of the masses. When they win, I feel euphoric joy, but I don’t feel pride, exactly. I don’t think their strengths are my strengths, nor their successes my successes.
When people insult the Vikings, I feel they are insulting me personally. But that doesn’t mean that I consider praise for the Vikings praise for me. George Costanza believes in God only for the bad things. The Vikings are me, but only when they lose.
Other Week Eight Games of Note
Week Eight Schedule
Broncos-Ravens. The Ravens are a better football team. I think.
49ers-Colts. In the Hazelweird Fantasy League, I start Manning, Wayne, Addai, the Colt Defense, plus Frank Gore (and if Bernard Berrian is out, add Austin Collie). I think I ought to pay attention.
Giants-Eagles. The NFC East looks like a three-team race, so these head-to-head matchups between those three teams are really interesting.
Falcons-Saints. I spend an awful lot of my time thinking about the Saints and rooting for them to fail.
Sportswriting
Sports Illustrated’s Andrew Perloff has been irritating me. His “Against the Grain” columns claim they’re going to go “in the opposite direction of your average pro football analysis.” It sounds like he’s going to be counterintuitive for the sake of being counterintuitive, but the columns aren’t even that useful: the commentary is usually pretty mundane. I find that he primarily makes claims, but that he doesn’t offer much analysis or evidence in support of those claims (which makes his work rather like “your average pro football analysis”).
My least favorite column this season was his post debunking myths about wide receivers: he presents a series of unsourced straw man propositions, then proceeds to debunk these easily debunkable propositions. It’s not just that the straw man propositions are easily debunkable; I’m also doubtful that some of these propositions are widely circulated or believed.
In the same column, Perloff also invents a claim that apparently “everyone said,” then proceeds to disagree with it (his argument of disagreement is extremely oversimplified and, in my opinion, mostly wrong, but I won’t get into that now). Generalizations are often a sign of shoddy writing: attributing a view to “everyone” is usually a mistake, and disagreeing with a fantasy “everyone” is sometimes a sign of a writer who thinks he’s some edgy voice crying in the wilderness, when usually he’s just not working hard.
I may be too hard on Perloff: during a semester I get accustomed to evaluating student writing, so I read very critically. But I also think it’s Perloff’s “against the grain” tone that gets to me, as if he’s saying “Hey, look at me! I’m saying something different!”
An annual reminder
We're all just Linus waiting for our Great Pumpkin.
Links
Peyton Manning, in his prime (pro-football-reference.com). By the way, my primarily Viking-focused readers: I appreciate the patience with which you tolerate my constant praise for Peyton Manning.
Football Outsiders’ DVOA: Packers #4, Vikings #8
How the lousy teams are inflating opponents’ passing numbers (18 to 88).
Mike Tanier reads Monday Night Jihad so you don't have to (FO).
I thought about linking to this Onion article, because it was sports-related and funny. But then I thought this Onion article was funnier. And then I thought this Onion article was truth-through-satire and is more important. So I'm linking to them all.
Timberwolves, suckers!
You may know me as a neurotic and obsessive Viking blogger, but when I was growing up, I thought about basketball mostly all the time, and so I’ve watched a lot of very awful Minnesota Timberwolves teams. I’ll follow any Wolves team. This year I’ll be going to a bunch of Wolves games; I kind of like the Target Center and the area around it, and I fell into a bunch of free tickets for the season. So, Jonny Flynn, suckers!
Weekend
I’m renaming months what they are. October is now called “Candy.” It is always around, and I am powerless to resist it.
Have a good Halloween weekend, everybody. Except Packer, Bear, and Saint fans.
Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
Last Matchup: Vikings 30, Packers 23
The first matchup between these teams featured some defensive performances on both sides that will be difficult to repeat. The Packers held Adrian Peterson to 2.2 yards per rush attempt, and stripped the ball from him, returning it for a touchdown: I don’t believe they can stop him so effectively twice in one season. The Vikings sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times, including a forced fumble and one for a safety, and harried him all game long: though the Viking pass rush has been consistently good this season, it’s hard to envision that sort of success again.
The anomalies in this matchup go further. In their previous three games against the Packers, the Vikes have allowed four non-offensive touchdowns (a punt return, an interception return and a punt return, and fumble recovery return). It’s improbable for the Packers to keep that sort of run going, too, and the Viking defense has been successful at limiting the Packers’ offensive points. If the Vikings can avoid turnovers and cover punt returns well, they have a good chance at controlling the game.
The Packer offense seems successful at connecting on long passes: Rodgers averages 14.1 yards per completion, and Donald Driver (17.7) and Greg Jennings (16.2) each have high yards per reception. The Viking safeties Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson have struggled, but the Cover-2 scheme seems designed to prevent long passing plays. I think if the Vikes prevent the big play and force the Packers to try sustain long drives, they’ll be successful at stopping drives.
It’s pretty rare for the Vikes to sweep the Packers, and it is usually under special circumstances. They did it in ’98, when they were particularly awesome, and they did it in ’05, when the Packers were particularly terrible.
It’s a critical game, obviously. A win puts the Vikes 2.5 games ahead of the Packers with a season sweep; a loss puts the Vikes .5 games ahead with a season split. Either way, it’s worth noting that after the bye, the Vikes play three straight games in Thunderdome, against the Lions, Seahawks, and Bears. This is a big rivalry game, but the game won’t make or break the season for us.
Good or Bad?
Naufahu Tahi and Jim Kleinsasser have combined for 11 receptions this season. I scream into the abyss every time I see a pass targeted to either of these players—neither is a playmaker of any sort. On the other hand, the fact that they catch some passes might be an indicator that Brett Favre has been willing to check down rather than force something deep. Neither are generally a first option on any passing play, and a pass directed toward either usually amounts to slightly better than throwing it away. So maybe every time Favre throws to Tahi or Kleinsasser, we should be recognizing that it was NOT a pass he threw into double-coverage.
George Costanza and Me
(cross-posted at That’s how we do it in the T.C.)
In one episode of Seinfeld, George is on the verge of success, which fills him with anxiety and dread. He frets to his therapist, “God would never let me be successful. He’ll kill me first. He’ll never let me be happy.” “I thought you didn’t believe in God,” the therapist says. “I do for the bad things!” George replies.
I feel personally connected to the Minnesota Vikings. Their shortcomings are my shortcomings. When they fail, I feel I have failed, that I have opened myself up personally to the ridicule of the masses. When they win, I feel euphoric joy, but I don’t feel pride, exactly. I don’t think their strengths are my strengths, nor their successes my successes.
When people insult the Vikings, I feel they are insulting me personally. But that doesn’t mean that I consider praise for the Vikings praise for me. George Costanza believes in God only for the bad things. The Vikings are me, but only when they lose.
Other Week Eight Games of Note
Week Eight Schedule
Broncos-Ravens. The Ravens are a better football team. I think.
49ers-Colts. In the Hazelweird Fantasy League, I start Manning, Wayne, Addai, the Colt Defense, plus Frank Gore (and if Bernard Berrian is out, add Austin Collie). I think I ought to pay attention.
Giants-Eagles. The NFC East looks like a three-team race, so these head-to-head matchups between those three teams are really interesting.
Falcons-Saints. I spend an awful lot of my time thinking about the Saints and rooting for them to fail.
Sportswriting
Sports Illustrated’s Andrew Perloff has been irritating me. His “Against the Grain” columns claim they’re going to go “in the opposite direction of your average pro football analysis.” It sounds like he’s going to be counterintuitive for the sake of being counterintuitive, but the columns aren’t even that useful: the commentary is usually pretty mundane. I find that he primarily makes claims, but that he doesn’t offer much analysis or evidence in support of those claims (which makes his work rather like “your average pro football analysis”).
My least favorite column this season was his post debunking myths about wide receivers: he presents a series of unsourced straw man propositions, then proceeds to debunk these easily debunkable propositions. It’s not just that the straw man propositions are easily debunkable; I’m also doubtful that some of these propositions are widely circulated or believed.
In the same column, Perloff also invents a claim that apparently “everyone said,” then proceeds to disagree with it (his argument of disagreement is extremely oversimplified and, in my opinion, mostly wrong, but I won’t get into that now). Generalizations are often a sign of shoddy writing: attributing a view to “everyone” is usually a mistake, and disagreeing with a fantasy “everyone” is sometimes a sign of a writer who thinks he’s some edgy voice crying in the wilderness, when usually he’s just not working hard.
I may be too hard on Perloff: during a semester I get accustomed to evaluating student writing, so I read very critically. But I also think it’s Perloff’s “against the grain” tone that gets to me, as if he’s saying “Hey, look at me! I’m saying something different!”
An annual reminder
We're all just Linus waiting for our Great Pumpkin.
Links
Peyton Manning, in his prime (pro-football-reference.com). By the way, my primarily Viking-focused readers: I appreciate the patience with which you tolerate my constant praise for Peyton Manning.
Football Outsiders’ DVOA: Packers #4, Vikings #8
How the lousy teams are inflating opponents’ passing numbers (18 to 88).
Mike Tanier reads Monday Night Jihad so you don't have to (FO).
I thought about linking to this Onion article, because it was sports-related and funny. But then I thought this Onion article was funnier. And then I thought this Onion article was truth-through-satire and is more important. So I'm linking to them all.
Timberwolves, suckers!
You may know me as a neurotic and obsessive Viking blogger, but when I was growing up, I thought about basketball mostly all the time, and so I’ve watched a lot of very awful Minnesota Timberwolves teams. I’ll follow any Wolves team. This year I’ll be going to a bunch of Wolves games; I kind of like the Target Center and the area around it, and I fell into a bunch of free tickets for the season. So, Jonny Flynn, suckers!
Weekend
I’m renaming months what they are. October is now called “Candy.” It is always around, and I am powerless to resist it.
Have a good Halloween weekend, everybody. Except Packer, Bear, and Saint fans.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Coming Off the Ledge: Steelers 27, Vikings 17
As a fan, this week went just as I expected it to. All week long, I just assumed the Vikings were going to lose to the Steelers. I was doing pre-emptive consolation (at 6-1 they're still in great shape, if you're going to lose a game it's the AFC road games you can most afford), looking forward to the game but not optimistic. And yet I knew that whatever assumptions I brought into the game, once it started I'd be fully invested, and if they end up losing, I'll be emotionally deflated. I'll mull too much on how a few particular plays could have changed the outcome (like a terrible--TERRIBLE!--call by the officials that negated what would have been a go-ahead touchdown, or an interception on a screen play that bounced off Chester Taylor's hands when the team was already in range for a game-tying field goal attempt). I'll be encouraged about some things that went well (the defense played much, MUCH better than anticipated: the pass rush was effective and the secondary played as well as they could under the circumstances, really. Since the impression that stuck from the previous week was the defense being destroyed in the fourth quarter against Baltimore, it was good to be reminded that our defense is actually good), but mostly I'll be frustrated and empty-feeling.
Hence a lousy week. No clouds of heaven trailing our steps, but anxious frustration, disappointed sadness, and impatience for the next game.
Hence a lousy week. No clouds of heaven trailing our steps, but anxious frustration, disappointed sadness, and impatience for the next game.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
NATIONAL FRIDAY LEAGUE (week 7)
It has already been a thrilling season. Goodness, think about it. The Vikings won a game on a 32 yard touchdown pass and catch with seconds remaining on the clock. They beat the Ravens 33-31 on a game of runs that ended with an opponent's missed field goal. And the Vikings have already beaten the Green Bay Packers once, meaning there's at least that satisfaction from 2009. There are 10 more games left, plus playoffs? The Vikings have already given me loads of visceral thrills.
Vikings-Steelers Preview
The Pittsburgh Steelers
The Minnesota Vikings
I think this is the toughest game on the Vikings’ schedule. A team with serious Super Bowl aspirations shouldn’t consider any game unwinnable, but this is the game that even in the offseason I could most easily see the Vikings struggling in (am I so damaged I’ll never trust the Vikes in an outdoor road game?), and Antoine Winfield’s injury only makes it more difficult. But let’s think positive. What things can the Vikings do to defeat the Steelers?
Tackle Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger has a career 9% sack rate, a very high rate. The Vikes have been rushing the passer well, so they could disrupt Steelers’ drives by sacking Roethlisberger. But just as Roethlisberger takes too many sacks because he holds onto the ball a long time, so to does he often hold the ball long enough for receivers to get open downfield. I’m fairly confident the Vikings’ defensive linemen will pressure Roethlisberger; however, it’s also highly possible that Roethlisberger will evade the rush and complete devastating passes downfield. They’ll need to make sure when they rush him, they’re able to corner him and tackle him. It would also help if they could strip the ball from him.
Protect Brett Favre
For three weeks, the Viking pass protection looked like a mess. For the last three weeks, it looked superb. I don’t know if that is the strength of the opponents, improving play of new OL starters John Sullivan and Phil Loadholt, or Favre’s comfort with the team making his reads better. The Steelers have some ferocious pass rushers and an aggressive defensive coordinator, so it won’t be easy. However, the Vikings have faced several 3-4ish defenses this season, so they should at least be in practice for how to face the Steelers' 3-4.
Make big plays on offense
I think it will be hard to sustain very many long, dink-and-dunk drives against the Steeler defense this week. However, the Vikings have playmakers in the passing game and running game to make 20+ yard plays, and those are the types of plays that can lead the Vikes to points against Pittsburgh.
It needs to be said: I love Brett Favre
When I think of my life as a sports fan, I now realize Favre has been the dominating presence. Always. I started watching football regularly around ’92 or ’93, when Favre first really emerged. I was watching football heavily when the Packers rose to the top of the league. When I went to college in Wisconsin, my Viking fandom got bolstered by hatred of the Packers. I think this all peaked around ’03 and ’04, when the Vikings and Packers were tightly competitive for a division title, and each year the Vikes lost the division in unmatchably dramatic fashion.
It seems this is the only way this could all end: watching Favre quarterback the Vikings, rooting for him, starting to love him. I really now see him as a Viking. The game winning drive against the 49ers made that happen; the excellent game against the Packers confirmed it. This is how reconciliation happens. And in my wildest fantasies, I hope this is how the Vikings will finally win a Super Bowl.
Favre gives me the faith that the Vikings won’t underachieve on the road against bad opponents. I watch the games slightly more relaxed than I used to: I feel the Vikes now have a little bigger margin of error.
For her birthday, I bought my wife a pink Brett Favre Vikings jersey. When my toddler plays with a toy telephone, I ask whom he is calling; “Brett Favre,” he says, and I do nothing to discourage this. I can now enjoy Favre highlights, can appreciate his statistics, and I even like Brett Favre football cards again.
I now bristle at the criticism against Favre, dismissing the critics, believing they don't quite get what he's doing or what makes him great or why he's going to make it all season long.
It's happened. Brett Favre is a Viking, and I embrace him as a Viking. I don't only root for him to do well, but I love watching him play.
And on the rational level
Most of my doubts about Favre have now been proven wrong. There were a lot of things I underestimated when considering how he’d perform as the Vikes’ QB—the main one being how fast he gets rid of the ball. He reads the defense extremely quickly, making a fast decision and throwing the ball with a very sharp release. The speed with which he acts after the snap sets him apart. He's been very good on third down, he's shown a lot of arm strength, he offers the Vikings a legitimate passing threat in the red zone to make sure they finish drives, and he's very effective in a two-minute offense when the team needs to move the ball quickly. He's been taking aggressive shots downfield, and in particular he's helped Sidney Rice elevate his game.
My bigger doubts, however, were about how his body would hold up in December, and whether he’d treat us to a disappointing performance in the playoffs. While those doubts haven’t been proven wrong yet, after seeing him play, I’m much less worried about those things than I was before.
My Viking Dreams
Me: Last night I dreamed that the Vikings won the NFC Championship game and I was jumping around like crazy celebrating.
My Wife: So even in your dreams, the Vikings don’t win the Super Bowl.
Me: Well, there was that dream when I was carried away to another plane of existence where time didn’t pass for me but it passed for everybody else, and I found out that while I was gone the Vikings won the Super Bowl.
Thinking End Game
Are you already following the NFC thinking playoffs? I’m looking at NFC teams to see who could be a threat in January (there are a handful of teams the Vikings are capable of defeating or losing to at that point), and I follow the standings hoping the Vikes can secure a first-round bye and get as many games as they can in Thunderdome.
And I feel a bit of desperation for this year's playoffs, since it certainly feels like if the Vikes are going to win the Super Bowl, it's this season they need to do it.
On Talking About Favre
As the all-time leader in both touchdown passes and interceptions, one could argue that Favre has made more positive plays than any quarterback in NFL history, and that Favre has made more negative plays than any quarterback in NFL history. His defenders, I think, often go too far to downplay, excuse, or ignore the negative plays. His detractors, I think, sometimes exaggerate the negative plays. And this occurs in a media environment where for years many in the (especially television) media heaped irrational gushing on Favre, so that a large and loud backlash against Favre and the media coverage of him developed (especially on the internet), with critics feeling justified in exaggerating the criticism because of all the irrational gushing, to the extent that today the criticism might be more overblown that the praise.
It’s extremely difficult to have a reasonable, objective discussion about Favre. There are statistical metrics that can try place Favre in his proper place, of course, but we also must decide how to interpret and use statistical facts. With Favre, it’s always going to be subjective, with the debaters focusing on (and finding) the available data they need to prove (mostly to themselves) the point they already believed before starting the debate. Discussions on Favre become subjective talk-past sessions, with the debaters using different standards and language and even worldviews to prove their points.
Players I’ve been enjoying
Sidney Rice
How thrilling is it to see Sidney Rice develop into a starting WR? He showed promise as a rookie and was slowed by injury in his second year. Now he’s versatile in the routes he can run, very athletic, a reliable playmaker. Whatever happens at quarterback in the future, it looks like we'll have a trio of Rice, Percy Harvin, and Bernard Berrian for a while, so that should be fun.
Jared Allen
How lucky are we? Allen is one of the most dominant pass rushers in the league, just a terror when he gets on. He uses quickness, speed, strength, and technique to constantly harass quarterbacks. His burst off the line is so quick, and his ability to disrupt an offense requires offenses to scheme around him (with a lot of screen passes, with a lot of double teams). It’s interesting to watch how an offense game plans to avoid a dominant, disruptive player.
Antoine Winfield
Winfield has been making giant defensive plays for the Vikes since 2004, and it becomes easy to take his brilliance for granted. Watching Karl Paymah against the Ravens reminds us not to do so.
Kevin Williams
Dominant force, and has been for years.
Brett Favre
Just keep it up. Just keep everything up, right on through February.
Fantasy Box
I spent all summer excited about Steven Jackson, and he was my most expensive pick in the Hazelweird auction. However, it took me all of one week to realize it would be wise to accept a trade offer of Peyton Manning for Jackson (with a few other particulars). The Rams looked so bad that I thought even if I’m right about Jackson’s yards, he won’t have many TD opportunities; Drew Brees’ six touchdown day made me suspect that it will take an elite QB to contend for a fantasy title this season. Obviously I'm happy with this trade.
In the summer we are all privy to the same information and analysis, but your fantasy success can depend largely on in-season roster moves. Flexibility, insight, timing, luck, and a little bit of guts during the season might matter as much as your draft preparation.
By the way, in both my leagues I'm now starting the Indianapolis Colts Defense. If I'm going to be in leagues with other Viking fans, I won't be able to construct an all-Viking lineup; I'm compensating by saturating my rosters with as many Colts as is reasonable.
Packer fans
Michael Rosenberg of SI and Bill Simmons of ESPN offer sympathy for Packer fans for being forced to see their one-time icon lighting them up for the hated rival.
As somebody who has entirely changed his attitude toward Favre because of my own team loyalty, I do understand Packer fans that turn on Favre. However, Favre gave Packer fans a massive amount of pleasure over the years. He gave them so many big moments and so many wins, including two NFC championships and one Super Bowl victory. Do they really want to abandon all that because Favre is playing for the Vikings for one year? They got to see their favorite team win a championship in large part due to Favre. If you root for a sports team, what else can you possibly want other than to see that team win a championship? Isn't that the most wonderful thing you can experience? And wouldn't that, along with 16 years of effort and success, be enough credit to make up for the debit of going over to the rival?
I can assure you, if a quarterback ever leads the Vikings to a Super Bowl win, he'll have to do a lot more to the Vikings and Viking fans than Favre has done to the Packers and Packer fans to make me turn on him.
Viking fans
Is it just me, or do network cameras (particularly ESPN and CBS, who don't cover too many Viking games) show more camera shots of Viking fans than they do for most teams? I always enjoy seeing fans decked out in purple paint and all varieties of Viking horns. I always smirk. "We're an odd bunch," I think. And then I feel guilty for not donning horns and face paint when I'm sitting in my living room watching the game.
“Luck” and Competition
In reaction to the Vikings’ victory over the Ravens, some reaction has suggested the Vikings were “lucky.” After all, they won because the opponent missed a game winning field goal. But let’s explore this concept of luck.
The outcome of any competition features the positive plays made by the winner, and the negative plays made by the loser. The Vikings-Ravens game featured many positive plays from both teams, and many negative plays from both teams. When you assess the game from beginning to end, the result is a very close contest that could go either way. The Ravens made a mistake of execution at the end, which gave the victory to the Vikings. But any close game could go either way dependent on a few plays at any given time. Do the negative plays made by the losing team make any closely contested game a “lucky” win for the winner? I don’t think so.
One problem is that many football fans, I think, view the kicking game as peripheral, if not external, to actual football. We spend most of our time talking about offenses and defenses, and sure we acknowledge the importance of special teams. But we tend to think of the kickers as something else, not quite a part of our assessment of the team’s quality. But of course that’s ridiculous: kicking is an important part of the game. In the Vikings-Ravens game, the Viking kicking game was good. Ryan Longwell made four out of four field goal attempts; in other words, the Vikings made positive plays in the kicking game. Steven Hauschka missed a 44 yard field goal as time expired; in other words, the Ravens made a negative play in the kicking game. I’d compare it to basketball: we understand that free throws, while uncontested, are a natural, essential part of the game of basketball. Well aren’t field goal attempts (which actually are contested) a natural, essential part of the game of football?
If the Ravens miss a field goal in the first quarter, it doesn’t make the Vikings’ win appear lucky. If another Raven player—a running back, a quarterback, a linebacker, an offensive lineman, anyone—makes an error at the end, it might not make the Vikings’ win appear lucky. I mean, really, have you ever heard anybody say something like “The team was lucky to win because the opponent’s linebacker missed that tackle at the end”? The Raven kicker failed to execute an important kick at the end of the game. That is a reasonable event of a competition.
But did the Ravens make such an egregious, unlikely error that it taints the Vikings’ victory? Not necessarily. Thus far in 2009, NFL kickers are 68 for 97 on field goal attempts from 40-49 yards (scroll down), roughly 70%. That’s a high percentage, but it’s not a gimme. Certainly an NFL kicker should make that field goal, but it’s not an outlandish outcome for him to miss it.
And let’s spin it the other way. Do you consider the Ravens “unlucky” to have lost? When a team loses because its field goal kicker misses the game winner, I don’t usually consider that team unlucky. They had a weakness on their team, and it cost them the game. It’s a close loss, one that has to hurt, but it’s a loss based on their own failure of execution. I think we generally understand that the Raven defense struggled most of the game, and the Raven offense struggled until the fourth quarter (just as the Viking offense played well most of the game, and the defense played pretty well until the fourth quarter—and furthermore, if anything we could consider the Ravens lucky because Antoine Winfield and Benny Sapp were injured and they got to throw a bunch of passes Karl Paymah’s way).
So were the Vikings “lucky”? That depends on what you mean by luck. Certainly at the very end of the game, the outcome was determined not primarily by the Vikings, but by the opponent: if you rely on something outside yourself for your own success, you are lucky if you win. And if you consider beating the odds of probability “luck,” then the final field goal made the Vikings lucky: the probability of an NFL kicker missing that kick is approximately 30%. But if by “lucky” you mean “fluky,” or “undeserved,” or “unearned,” or “tainted,” I think you’d be wrong.
Luck is a part of competition, but so too is execution and failure of execution a part of competition.
Links
During the last month, I whittled down my consistent football reading to a few key sites: Football Outsiders (the most extensive and detailed football analysis source, with a combination of detailed analysis and close observation of the games), Sports Illustrated NFL page (great football coverage, though some mediocre writers that continue to annoy me), Pro Football Talk Rumor Mill (I don't care for the commentary, but it's a quick place to check for any big news), pro-football-reference.com blog (good statistical analysis that offers historical perspective), the Star Tribune Viking page (the new format annoys me, but I still check it), and Bill Simmons' Friday picks column (guaranteed to irritate me at least once per column--is it just me or is he openly sexist?--but still an entertaining article I look forward to reading). There are other good sites that I would check periodically (being away from blogging about the team, I actually avoided reading Viking blogs, fearing getting sucked into spirited debates that I couldn't spare the energy for), but these are now the sites I consider my essential football reading.
I know where the wild things are: they live in the shadow of the end zone (PFT).
One thing academics do is what I call the hippo in the doorway. If you really need to get a hippo through the doorway but it doesn't quite fit, you can just jam it on in, even if things get distorted. Academics sometimes take the theories and methods of their particular field of expertise, attempt to apply those theories and methods to some aspect of society outside their field, and claim to have found insight through the process. Sometimes this process works and provides insights into both the subject of inquiry and the theories and methods applied. And sometimes, the process feels like jamming a hippo through a doorway. Kenny Smith's religious interpretation of football at Religion Dispatches sometimes feels like the hippo in the door--yet his analysis is based on specific, concrete fan behavior at games, and thus I think his interpretation offers insight. Certainly I feel something like emotional transcendence at various points throughout the football season.
Weekend
My toddler has been housebound for a month in a cast that went from belly to toe. On his first weekend of liberation, we'll do our best to spend most of the weekend out and about. We'll make it back to the house by noon on Sunday, of course.
Have a good weekend, everybody. Except Steeler, Packer, Bear, and Saint fans. Yep, I've added Saint fans: they're not the only NFC competition, but they're the strongest.
Vikings-Steelers Preview
The Pittsburgh Steelers
The Minnesota Vikings
I think this is the toughest game on the Vikings’ schedule. A team with serious Super Bowl aspirations shouldn’t consider any game unwinnable, but this is the game that even in the offseason I could most easily see the Vikings struggling in (am I so damaged I’ll never trust the Vikes in an outdoor road game?), and Antoine Winfield’s injury only makes it more difficult. But let’s think positive. What things can the Vikings do to defeat the Steelers?
Tackle Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger has a career 9% sack rate, a very high rate. The Vikes have been rushing the passer well, so they could disrupt Steelers’ drives by sacking Roethlisberger. But just as Roethlisberger takes too many sacks because he holds onto the ball a long time, so to does he often hold the ball long enough for receivers to get open downfield. I’m fairly confident the Vikings’ defensive linemen will pressure Roethlisberger; however, it’s also highly possible that Roethlisberger will evade the rush and complete devastating passes downfield. They’ll need to make sure when they rush him, they’re able to corner him and tackle him. It would also help if they could strip the ball from him.
Protect Brett Favre
For three weeks, the Viking pass protection looked like a mess. For the last three weeks, it looked superb. I don’t know if that is the strength of the opponents, improving play of new OL starters John Sullivan and Phil Loadholt, or Favre’s comfort with the team making his reads better. The Steelers have some ferocious pass rushers and an aggressive defensive coordinator, so it won’t be easy. However, the Vikings have faced several 3-4ish defenses this season, so they should at least be in practice for how to face the Steelers' 3-4.
Make big plays on offense
I think it will be hard to sustain very many long, dink-and-dunk drives against the Steeler defense this week. However, the Vikings have playmakers in the passing game and running game to make 20+ yard plays, and those are the types of plays that can lead the Vikes to points against Pittsburgh.
It needs to be said: I love Brett Favre
When I think of my life as a sports fan, I now realize Favre has been the dominating presence. Always. I started watching football regularly around ’92 or ’93, when Favre first really emerged. I was watching football heavily when the Packers rose to the top of the league. When I went to college in Wisconsin, my Viking fandom got bolstered by hatred of the Packers. I think this all peaked around ’03 and ’04, when the Vikings and Packers were tightly competitive for a division title, and each year the Vikes lost the division in unmatchably dramatic fashion.
It seems this is the only way this could all end: watching Favre quarterback the Vikings, rooting for him, starting to love him. I really now see him as a Viking. The game winning drive against the 49ers made that happen; the excellent game against the Packers confirmed it. This is how reconciliation happens. And in my wildest fantasies, I hope this is how the Vikings will finally win a Super Bowl.
Favre gives me the faith that the Vikings won’t underachieve on the road against bad opponents. I watch the games slightly more relaxed than I used to: I feel the Vikes now have a little bigger margin of error.
For her birthday, I bought my wife a pink Brett Favre Vikings jersey. When my toddler plays with a toy telephone, I ask whom he is calling; “Brett Favre,” he says, and I do nothing to discourage this. I can now enjoy Favre highlights, can appreciate his statistics, and I even like Brett Favre football cards again.
I now bristle at the criticism against Favre, dismissing the critics, believing they don't quite get what he's doing or what makes him great or why he's going to make it all season long.
It's happened. Brett Favre is a Viking, and I embrace him as a Viking. I don't only root for him to do well, but I love watching him play.
And on the rational level
Most of my doubts about Favre have now been proven wrong. There were a lot of things I underestimated when considering how he’d perform as the Vikes’ QB—the main one being how fast he gets rid of the ball. He reads the defense extremely quickly, making a fast decision and throwing the ball with a very sharp release. The speed with which he acts after the snap sets him apart. He's been very good on third down, he's shown a lot of arm strength, he offers the Vikings a legitimate passing threat in the red zone to make sure they finish drives, and he's very effective in a two-minute offense when the team needs to move the ball quickly. He's been taking aggressive shots downfield, and in particular he's helped Sidney Rice elevate his game.
My bigger doubts, however, were about how his body would hold up in December, and whether he’d treat us to a disappointing performance in the playoffs. While those doubts haven’t been proven wrong yet, after seeing him play, I’m much less worried about those things than I was before.
My Viking Dreams
Me: Last night I dreamed that the Vikings won the NFC Championship game and I was jumping around like crazy celebrating.
My Wife: So even in your dreams, the Vikings don’t win the Super Bowl.
Me: Well, there was that dream when I was carried away to another plane of existence where time didn’t pass for me but it passed for everybody else, and I found out that while I was gone the Vikings won the Super Bowl.
Thinking End Game
Are you already following the NFC thinking playoffs? I’m looking at NFC teams to see who could be a threat in January (there are a handful of teams the Vikings are capable of defeating or losing to at that point), and I follow the standings hoping the Vikes can secure a first-round bye and get as many games as they can in Thunderdome.
And I feel a bit of desperation for this year's playoffs, since it certainly feels like if the Vikes are going to win the Super Bowl, it's this season they need to do it.
On Talking About Favre
As the all-time leader in both touchdown passes and interceptions, one could argue that Favre has made more positive plays than any quarterback in NFL history, and that Favre has made more negative plays than any quarterback in NFL history. His defenders, I think, often go too far to downplay, excuse, or ignore the negative plays. His detractors, I think, sometimes exaggerate the negative plays. And this occurs in a media environment where for years many in the (especially television) media heaped irrational gushing on Favre, so that a large and loud backlash against Favre and the media coverage of him developed (especially on the internet), with critics feeling justified in exaggerating the criticism because of all the irrational gushing, to the extent that today the criticism might be more overblown that the praise.
It’s extremely difficult to have a reasonable, objective discussion about Favre. There are statistical metrics that can try place Favre in his proper place, of course, but we also must decide how to interpret and use statistical facts. With Favre, it’s always going to be subjective, with the debaters focusing on (and finding) the available data they need to prove (mostly to themselves) the point they already believed before starting the debate. Discussions on Favre become subjective talk-past sessions, with the debaters using different standards and language and even worldviews to prove their points.
Players I’ve been enjoying
Sidney Rice
How thrilling is it to see Sidney Rice develop into a starting WR? He showed promise as a rookie and was slowed by injury in his second year. Now he’s versatile in the routes he can run, very athletic, a reliable playmaker. Whatever happens at quarterback in the future, it looks like we'll have a trio of Rice, Percy Harvin, and Bernard Berrian for a while, so that should be fun.
Jared Allen
How lucky are we? Allen is one of the most dominant pass rushers in the league, just a terror when he gets on. He uses quickness, speed, strength, and technique to constantly harass quarterbacks. His burst off the line is so quick, and his ability to disrupt an offense requires offenses to scheme around him (with a lot of screen passes, with a lot of double teams). It’s interesting to watch how an offense game plans to avoid a dominant, disruptive player.
Antoine Winfield
Winfield has been making giant defensive plays for the Vikes since 2004, and it becomes easy to take his brilliance for granted. Watching Karl Paymah against the Ravens reminds us not to do so.
Kevin Williams
Dominant force, and has been for years.
Brett Favre
Just keep it up. Just keep everything up, right on through February.
Fantasy Box
I spent all summer excited about Steven Jackson, and he was my most expensive pick in the Hazelweird auction. However, it took me all of one week to realize it would be wise to accept a trade offer of Peyton Manning for Jackson (with a few other particulars). The Rams looked so bad that I thought even if I’m right about Jackson’s yards, he won’t have many TD opportunities; Drew Brees’ six touchdown day made me suspect that it will take an elite QB to contend for a fantasy title this season. Obviously I'm happy with this trade.
In the summer we are all privy to the same information and analysis, but your fantasy success can depend largely on in-season roster moves. Flexibility, insight, timing, luck, and a little bit of guts during the season might matter as much as your draft preparation.
By the way, in both my leagues I'm now starting the Indianapolis Colts Defense. If I'm going to be in leagues with other Viking fans, I won't be able to construct an all-Viking lineup; I'm compensating by saturating my rosters with as many Colts as is reasonable.
Packer fans
Michael Rosenberg of SI and Bill Simmons of ESPN offer sympathy for Packer fans for being forced to see their one-time icon lighting them up for the hated rival.
As somebody who has entirely changed his attitude toward Favre because of my own team loyalty, I do understand Packer fans that turn on Favre. However, Favre gave Packer fans a massive amount of pleasure over the years. He gave them so many big moments and so many wins, including two NFC championships and one Super Bowl victory. Do they really want to abandon all that because Favre is playing for the Vikings for one year? They got to see their favorite team win a championship in large part due to Favre. If you root for a sports team, what else can you possibly want other than to see that team win a championship? Isn't that the most wonderful thing you can experience? And wouldn't that, along with 16 years of effort and success, be enough credit to make up for the debit of going over to the rival?
I can assure you, if a quarterback ever leads the Vikings to a Super Bowl win, he'll have to do a lot more to the Vikings and Viking fans than Favre has done to the Packers and Packer fans to make me turn on him.
Viking fans
Is it just me, or do network cameras (particularly ESPN and CBS, who don't cover too many Viking games) show more camera shots of Viking fans than they do for most teams? I always enjoy seeing fans decked out in purple paint and all varieties of Viking horns. I always smirk. "We're an odd bunch," I think. And then I feel guilty for not donning horns and face paint when I'm sitting in my living room watching the game.
“Luck” and Competition
In reaction to the Vikings’ victory over the Ravens, some reaction has suggested the Vikings were “lucky.” After all, they won because the opponent missed a game winning field goal. But let’s explore this concept of luck.
The outcome of any competition features the positive plays made by the winner, and the negative plays made by the loser. The Vikings-Ravens game featured many positive plays from both teams, and many negative plays from both teams. When you assess the game from beginning to end, the result is a very close contest that could go either way. The Ravens made a mistake of execution at the end, which gave the victory to the Vikings. But any close game could go either way dependent on a few plays at any given time. Do the negative plays made by the losing team make any closely contested game a “lucky” win for the winner? I don’t think so.
One problem is that many football fans, I think, view the kicking game as peripheral, if not external, to actual football. We spend most of our time talking about offenses and defenses, and sure we acknowledge the importance of special teams. But we tend to think of the kickers as something else, not quite a part of our assessment of the team’s quality. But of course that’s ridiculous: kicking is an important part of the game. In the Vikings-Ravens game, the Viking kicking game was good. Ryan Longwell made four out of four field goal attempts; in other words, the Vikings made positive plays in the kicking game. Steven Hauschka missed a 44 yard field goal as time expired; in other words, the Ravens made a negative play in the kicking game. I’d compare it to basketball: we understand that free throws, while uncontested, are a natural, essential part of the game of basketball. Well aren’t field goal attempts (which actually are contested) a natural, essential part of the game of football?
If the Ravens miss a field goal in the first quarter, it doesn’t make the Vikings’ win appear lucky. If another Raven player—a running back, a quarterback, a linebacker, an offensive lineman, anyone—makes an error at the end, it might not make the Vikings’ win appear lucky. I mean, really, have you ever heard anybody say something like “The team was lucky to win because the opponent’s linebacker missed that tackle at the end”? The Raven kicker failed to execute an important kick at the end of the game. That is a reasonable event of a competition.
But did the Ravens make such an egregious, unlikely error that it taints the Vikings’ victory? Not necessarily. Thus far in 2009, NFL kickers are 68 for 97 on field goal attempts from 40-49 yards (scroll down), roughly 70%. That’s a high percentage, but it’s not a gimme. Certainly an NFL kicker should make that field goal, but it’s not an outlandish outcome for him to miss it.
And let’s spin it the other way. Do you consider the Ravens “unlucky” to have lost? When a team loses because its field goal kicker misses the game winner, I don’t usually consider that team unlucky. They had a weakness on their team, and it cost them the game. It’s a close loss, one that has to hurt, but it’s a loss based on their own failure of execution. I think we generally understand that the Raven defense struggled most of the game, and the Raven offense struggled until the fourth quarter (just as the Viking offense played well most of the game, and the defense played pretty well until the fourth quarter—and furthermore, if anything we could consider the Ravens lucky because Antoine Winfield and Benny Sapp were injured and they got to throw a bunch of passes Karl Paymah’s way).
So were the Vikings “lucky”? That depends on what you mean by luck. Certainly at the very end of the game, the outcome was determined not primarily by the Vikings, but by the opponent: if you rely on something outside yourself for your own success, you are lucky if you win. And if you consider beating the odds of probability “luck,” then the final field goal made the Vikings lucky: the probability of an NFL kicker missing that kick is approximately 30%. But if by “lucky” you mean “fluky,” or “undeserved,” or “unearned,” or “tainted,” I think you’d be wrong.
Luck is a part of competition, but so too is execution and failure of execution a part of competition.
Links
During the last month, I whittled down my consistent football reading to a few key sites: Football Outsiders (the most extensive and detailed football analysis source, with a combination of detailed analysis and close observation of the games), Sports Illustrated NFL page (great football coverage, though some mediocre writers that continue to annoy me), Pro Football Talk Rumor Mill (I don't care for the commentary, but it's a quick place to check for any big news), pro-football-reference.com blog (good statistical analysis that offers historical perspective), the Star Tribune Viking page (the new format annoys me, but I still check it), and Bill Simmons' Friday picks column (guaranteed to irritate me at least once per column--is it just me or is he openly sexist?--but still an entertaining article I look forward to reading). There are other good sites that I would check periodically (being away from blogging about the team, I actually avoided reading Viking blogs, fearing getting sucked into spirited debates that I couldn't spare the energy for), but these are now the sites I consider my essential football reading.
I know where the wild things are: they live in the shadow of the end zone (PFT).
One thing academics do is what I call the hippo in the doorway. If you really need to get a hippo through the doorway but it doesn't quite fit, you can just jam it on in, even if things get distorted. Academics sometimes take the theories and methods of their particular field of expertise, attempt to apply those theories and methods to some aspect of society outside their field, and claim to have found insight through the process. Sometimes this process works and provides insights into both the subject of inquiry and the theories and methods applied. And sometimes, the process feels like jamming a hippo through a doorway. Kenny Smith's religious interpretation of football at Religion Dispatches sometimes feels like the hippo in the door--yet his analysis is based on specific, concrete fan behavior at games, and thus I think his interpretation offers insight. Certainly I feel something like emotional transcendence at various points throughout the football season.
Weekend
My toddler has been housebound for a month in a cast that went from belly to toe. On his first weekend of liberation, we'll do our best to spend most of the weekend out and about. We'll make it back to the house by noon on Sunday, of course.
Have a good weekend, everybody. Except Steeler, Packer, Bear, and Saint fans. Yep, I've added Saint fans: they're not the only NFC competition, but they're the strongest.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Ochocinco vs. MN Secondary
I was stuck in Missouri over the weekend and missed the game, but I did see this interesting exchange on Twitter today when I got back.
Chad sent this proposal to Bryant McKinnie on Twitter, and McKinnie replied with this.
I think the rest of America will be cheering for Minnesota's secondary on December 13th. But I'm guessing Chad will pull a 50 Cent on us and not stick with his promise.
Oh, and Kansas City fans were happy with their overtime loss to the Cowboys last week. It feels good to be 6-0, doesn't it?
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