Monday, June 11, 2007

Fantasy Preview: the New England Patriots

These previews are going to go team by team in random order. The premise is simple. I'm going to talk about which players on each team you should feel confident about starting week one. Anybody else should not start for you week one; in fact, if you are starting any other players on the team week one, you should throw up.

I'd like to give you more information: sleepers, game-by-game stats, rigid analysis, etc. I'm doing all that, but I'm in a competitive league myself, and most members of my league read this blog. We don't play for money: we play for the Hazelweird and A.P. Trophies. The point is I have all sorts of fantasy ideas that I'm not putting on this blog, because I don't want anybody in my league to know my real secrets.

Is this a stupid use of this blog? Without a doubt Is this a horrible waste of my summer? Most definitely. Are you a lesser person for bothering to read it? Quite possibly. But last summer I was on technology hiatus; this is my first summer blogging full-time, and since we've never written about baseball, there's not much else to cover. Writing individual fantasy previews for every team in the league seems like a fair use of the summer.

The New England Patriots
2006 stats at NFL.com and Pro-football-reference.com

There are four players/positions on the Patriot roster worth starting on your fantasy team at the start of the season. Here they are.

Tom Brady (QB): Brady is one of the most consistent fantasy QBs. Since becoming New England‘s starter, he hasn't missed a start. He’s led the league in both TD passes and passing yards. From 2002-2006, he averaged 25.8 TD passes (low of 23, high of 28) and 3,743 yards (low of 3,620, high of 4,110). That’s consistency. With additions like Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker, Brady should at least match his average, and could set career highs in every category.

Laurence Maroney (RB): Last season Corey Dillon had 199 carries and 13 TDs. This season Maroney is the feature back. He’ll be a second-round pick in most of your drafts, so he should be a week one starter.

Stephen Gostkowski (K): as long as I’ve played fantasy football, it’s never been a bad thing to have the Patriot kicker.

The Defense (D): as long as I’ve played fantasy football, it’s never been a bad thing to have the Patriot defense.

If you are starting any other Patriot players on your fantasy team week one, you should throw up. Randy Moss is too questionable--he might score 20 TDs this season, but since he left the Vikings, he’s fully capable of dive-bombing your fantasy football. It’s never fun to start a Patriot WR or TE, since they spread the ball around to so many different people. It's worth having some of them on your roster (Moss, Stallworth, Watson), but there's no reason to start any Patriot WR or TE week one. Well, there are three reasons:
1. You took the risk on Randy.
2. You spent your high picks/money on other more important players, and therefore these are the weakest positions on your team.
3. Your team sucks.

Start Brady, Maroney, the kicker, and the defense with confidence. Nobody else on the Patriots is worth starting week one. You can take your chances with Randy Moss, but he will probably make you cry.

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