Monday, October 15, 2007

Keep Adrian Peterson Fresh

The Vikings are frustrating some fans with their insistence on using Chester Taylor a lot instead of giving primary carries to Adrian Peterson. But it's the right move. Adrian Peterson should be this team's dominant football player for the next decade, and the Vikings must not use him up.

Consider Earl Campbell. Campbell was one of the greatest running backs to ever play football, yet the Houston Oilers got just three great and two good seasons from Campbell. Consecutive seasons of 368, 373, and 361 carries just wore him down.

Consider Terrell Davis. Davis, too, might be one of the greatest running backs to ever play football, yet the Denver Broncos got just three great and one good seasons from Davis. In the Broncos' two-year run of winning Super Bowls, Davis carried the ball an incredible 951 times in regular and post-season games, and the rest of his career was destroyed with injuries. Davis and the Broncos might argue that it was worth it to win Super Bowls, but had the Broncos mixed it up more, Davis might have had a long, dominant career in Denver.

Football Outsiders has found convincing data showing that overusing running backs diminishes their effectiveness. We want Adrian Peterson running wild for the Vikings for the next ten seasons. That means that in the game against the Bears when Peterson was going bananas breaking off long runs, it's just fine that Chester Taylor got 22 carries and Adrian Peterson got 20. The Vikings shouldn't use up Adrian Peterson so that by 2011 he's effectively finished; they should use Peterson effectively so that by 2016 he's still a great football player.

It will be good for the Vikings in 2007, too. Mixing it up with Taylor and Peterson means that Peterson will be fresh and running hard in the fourth quarter. It also means that Peterson can be fresh and running hard in November and December.

I love Adrian Peterson, and I want to see him get the ball a lot; it's a joyous experience watching him break long, spectacular runs with quickness, cutbacks, moves, and speed. But I also want to see him get the ball a lot in a long, dominant Viking career.

14 comments:

  1. Anonymous11:29 AM

    Preach it, Brother PV! I'm getting one of his jerseys soon. Home purple or road white? Is it too early to start considering "Adrian" for my first born? Do you think number 28 is going to get any of my 29 letters I wrote to him yesterday? I want to wear his skin as my pajammas!

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  2. Anonymous11:59 AM

    Hopefully APeterson doesn't do so well that he saves Chilli's neck....

    FIRE CHILDRESS NOW !!!!!!!!

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  3. Fire Childress Now guy, you've basically now admitted that you want the Vikings to lose.

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  4. Anonymous1:52 PM

    PV - No I don't - They are my team.... I would love to say something like "Extended Chilli's contract now" or something like that... Just being a smart ass... It's just that AP is going to make Chilli look like he is a better coach than he actually is.. He had to make notes to himself to make sure he got the ball to AP at least 25 times.. Are you kidding me? Is he that stupid that he can't remember to get the ball to the BEST player on the team??

    FIRE CHILDRESS NOW !!!!!!

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  5. Anonymous2:53 PM

    PV, your analysis is right on, but good luck convincing Viking Nation of it. And of course, if Chilli gives him 30 carries next week and then he pulls a hammy and is out for 4-6 weeks, everyone will just as quickly go "I told you so!"

    All-Day was a beast yesterday, but one of the reasons for that was the O-line opened holes and dominated the line, Chester Taylor was effective pounding the ball, and T-Jack made them fear the long ball a little. You know the Bears D was telling themselves "thank god Rice/Williamson dropped that slant, 'cause we were burned."

    The open field work was all Peterson, but getting him past the line clean? Good blocking makes a big difference.

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  6. Anonymous4:09 PM

    Sometimes "good blocking" is created by the RB... seeing the positions of the D players, how their hips are turned, pursuit and then cutting it up/back.... Not arguing that the line didn't block well but sometimes a Superstar ...well you know makes everybody look better than they actually are..

    AP is a horse....

    FIRE CHILDRESS NOW !!!!!!

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  7. Figures I had to face both A. Peterson & Tom Brady in Fantasy this weekend...sux 2 be Shorty right now...

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  8. I agree with this, I think that Chilly is doing a good job to keep AP fresh. We do not want to overuse a good thing.

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  9. Anonymous5:02 PM

    I'm still not convinced Chili is trying to win. What was that three and out late in the game, killing the clock with passes? What defense were we in when Hester scored the long TD? AP won that game in spite of the coaching.

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  10. Well said. I was thinking at first WHY do they keep putting Chester in there when he keeps getting stopped after 1 or 2 yards. Don't wanna see AD turn into another Terrell Davis and have his career cut short. In the end they got the WIN and I guess that's all that matters.

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  11. Anonymous11:39 PM

    Having Adrian Peterson on the fantasy team takes the sting out of that loss a little bit.

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  12. Well said, PV. While I would like to see Peterson touch it a little more and Taylor a little less, Taylor absolutely has to have a large part in the offense like he did this week. You are 100% correct.

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  13. Anonymous7:33 AM

    i'm convinced it's more about how the running back is hit than how many times they run. this is why people are concerned about peterson's running style. still, it may be a little forward thinking to project 5 to 8 years in the future when jobs are on the line now.

    rk

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  14. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2004/07/25/ramblings/stat-analysis/236/

    Pretty convincing that the number of carries diminishes effectiveness.

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