Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Projecting Brett Favre's 2010 Stats

I have a crazy simple idea for projecting Brett Favre's 2010 statistics. I'm just going to take take the average of his 2008 and 2009 numbers and predict his 2010 numbers to roughly match that average. I think at his age, in this pass-friendly league, these are the numbers to expect.

Brett Favre's 2008-2009 average:

353-526.5 (67%), 3,837 yards, 27.5 TDs, 14.5 INTs

It's stupidly simple, but if you come back to read this blog post in January (and why on earth wouldn't you?), I think you'll see Brett Favre's numbers pretty close to the line above. Interestingly, this is almost identical to Favre's 2007 season (356-535, 66.5%, 4,155 yards, 28 TDs, 15 INTs).

Given the potential of the Vikings' running game, defense, and special teams, I would be ecstatic with those numbers. If Favre produces like that, the Vikings win 10+ games and compete for the Super Bowl.


Back at practice (

At the front page of, you can watch a neat little highlight video of Favre from 2009 (which also serves as a reminder how good some of the Viking WRs are).


  1. WHY average 2009 with 2008 when he was on a different team with a very different offensive philosophy, less offensive talent and, oh yeah, a hurt shoulder? Unless you're predicting an injury, he'll be closer to 2009 than 2008.

  2. The averaging is a little arbitrary, I know. However, Favre had career highs in some key categories at the age of 39/40. I wouldn't expect him to be able to match a career year at 40/41; there's going to be some regression toward the mean (for example, as Football Outsiders often points out, any QB with an extremely low INT % one year usually regresses the next year). I just thought it might be a way to think about how he might regress toward the mean: take an average of two straight seasons: a sub-par season and a spectacular season. The fact that his average of '08 and '09 actually matches the '07 numbers suggests to me that it might be accurate. I think at this stage of Favre's career, playing in the league's current pass-friendly atmosphere, this is the player Favre is.

    You're right on one thing: the Vikings' skill position players are far more talented than the '08 Jets' skill position players, or the '07 Packers' skill position players. The greatness of AP and the diversity/versatility of the Viking receivers should really help Favre be productive (as he'll help them be productive). But I'd still expect some regression, and the average seasons idea was just an admittedly clunky way to guess what that regression might look like.

  3. oh in my opinion you did exactly what I would have done in order to project Brett Favre's 2010 statistics, so I think you did a pretty good job! peace bro!