Sunday, June 17, 2007

Fantasy Preview: the Cincinnati Bengals

The premise is simple: I'll tell you what players you can confidently start the season with, and what players should cause your stomach to wobble if you have to start them.

Cincinnati Bengals
2006 stats at NFL.com and pro-football-reference.com

The Cincinnati Bengals have joined teams like the Colts and the Rams as fantasy juggernauts: the offense is so potent and versatile that you want as many of their offensive starters on your fantasy team as is reasonable. That may be an exaggeration, but not by much: you should be happy to start the QB, the K, the RB, and either the #1 WR or the #2 WR. Those aren't mediocre reaches on a bad fantasy team; they are very good to great fantasy starters that can help you win a championship. Be happy to start:

The kicker, whose name is evidently Shayne Graham.

Carson Palmer, the fantasy QB second only to Peyton Manning

Chad Johnson, the #1 WR that was inconsistent last season but that many consider the best wideout in the game.

T.J. Houshmandzedah, the #2 WR that started putting up #1 production last season (I’d still only want him as my #2 fantasy WR).

Rudi Johnson, the absurdly consistent RB (2004: 1454-12, 2005: 1,458-12, 2006: 1,309-12).

That’s a deep fantasy squad.

And while we're at it, let's throw out the ridiculous question: could you try draft all five of these players and start them all (not possible in a snake draft, plausible in an auction), and would it benefit your fantasy team?

I'm not sure. With the exception of a few bad weeks, you're going to get good points every week, because you're going to get almost all of Cincinnati's points and yards credited to your fantasy score (some of those yards twice). You might not have as many monster weeks, because it's going to be hard for a bunch of players in your lineup to score multiple TDs.

I think you could do better in an 8 or 10 team league spreading your starters around from different teams. However, in a 12 team league, you could do pretty well starting Palmer-Johnson-Johnson-Houshmandzedah-Graham, or Manning-Addai-Harrison-Wayne-Vinatieri.

The easier move is to look for QB-RB combos on good offenses. Palmer-Johnson, Bulger-Jackson, Rivers-Tomlinson, Manning-Addai, even Hasselbeck-Alexander: these combos are out there. With the great QB-RB combos, you should score big and consistently: you'll have all the passing yards and TDs and the majority of the rushing yards and TDs for a great offense credited to your fantasy team.

So make a courageous move: draft Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson, and Shayne Graham, and you won't miss out on many of the Bengals' points. Considering the team was 8th in points and 8th in yards last season, that's a solid anchor to your team. You'll still have to support their points with other good starters, but you've got a good core.

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