Blizzard

John Clayton thinks Brad Childress has handled Tarvaris Jackson just fine.

Alan Page (pro-football-reference).

Tyrell Johnson (Star Tribune).

Familiar scenario: Sid Hartman talks to an optimistic local sports owner (Star Tribune).

Chase Stuart talks about the Jets, Favre, and Super Bowl champs with new players (pro-football-reference).

"The NFL Network reported that if New York turns around and trade him to Minnesota, the Jets would have to give Green Bay three first-round picks" (Pioneer Press).

Chad Pennington
I have not been bothered that the Vikings committed to Tarvaris Jackson as the starting quarterback for 2008. I've gone from vexed to infuriated that the team hasn't done more to provide an adequate backup plan in case Jackson struggles. Right now it's all or nothing: if Jackson is successful, great, but if Jackson struggles, the season is probably lost. If the team had a solid veteran quarterback on the roster (and I don't believe in Gus Frerotte), then if Jackson struggles through four games or so, then the team could turn to the veteran to perhaps save the season and guide the team to the playoffs. It's just a reasonable backup plan: commit to Jackson, but be prepared to succeed even if he struggles. But the Vikes haven't done that.

I'd be thrilled if the Vikings could get Pennington. A month may not be enough to acclimate him to the offense, but if he's the backup option, then it would really be more like two months before the team would need him. He's a veteran, accurate in the short passing game, and generally makes good decisions. I'm not imploring the Vikes to get Pennington and install him as starter. I would love for them to get Pennington, continue to prepare for the Tarvaris Jackson Experience, and then ask Pennington to rescue the season if Jackson really isn't good.

A personal note
I've mentioned on this blog that I don't get ESPN at home. That all changes this week: I'll be getting both ESPN and the NFL Network, so that my life can be completely inundated with televised football.

Mediocrity

Good. And maybe the Jets will trade us Chad Pennington--I'd rather have him anyway.

Hazelweird Draft Results

For those who have expressed interest here is a link to go and see the hazelweird fantasy league draft results....we now return to your regularly scheduled programming.

SI at Viking Camp

Jim Trotter provides Sports Illustrated's postcard from Viking training camp.

Fantasy Football Discussion: Running Backs

Important Assessment: Yards Per Attempt
Few fantasy football leagues reward or punish a player for his yards per attempt, so when you prepare for a season, you may overlook a running back's rushing yards per attempt. This is, in my opinion, a mistake: I look to yards per carry as a major tool in assessing running backs.

A running back with high yards per attempt has explosive ability. You're trying to project who will be good in the coming year, and so past yards per attempt can tell you who has the potential to be elite. It's not a total number: a running back with few carries could have great yards per carry (small sample size, beneficial situations), but in general, a running back with great yards per carry on 200+ carries is probably great.

I'm scared of running backs who, in a particular season, have a lot of yards and touchdowns but poor yards per attempt. Such a running back needs too much to go his way to repeat such a season: lots of carries, lots of goal-line attempts, consistent help from his team's passing game to pick up first downs, and help from the team overall to build leads or at least keep games close.

Monster Running Backs
You don't win the Hazelweird Trophy without a Monster Season running back on your roster. You need to have a running back that's going to consistently score your team points from week to week, and who will also explode for multi-touchdown games.

There are five running backs from whom anything less than a Monster Season would be a disappointment: Ladanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, and Joseph Addai. You draft one of those players expecting a Monster Season, and if you don't get it, you're probably going to have a lousy year. But there are some other running backs that I expect a Monster Season from.

Marion Barber
It strikes me how similar Barber is to Joseph Addai. They are both young, explosive running backs in very good pass-first offenses. They will each have a ton of scoring opportunities (20 TDs is a distinct possibility), and while neither will rush for 1,500 yards, you should expect at least 1,500 yards from scrimmage. Barber was my first pick (#10) in the Hazelweird League.

Frank Gore
I'm not sure there is a ceiling on Gore's total yards: I expect Gore to have 2,000+ yards from scrimmage. But his career high for touchdowns is nine, and he plays in a lousy offense. If you draft Gore, you should hope for well over 2,000 total yards, but you should be ecstatic if you get as many as 12 touchdowns.

Laurence Maroney
He's a running back on a great team with an easy schedule. The Patriots are still going to have an amazing offense, but I expect a major balancing out between passing and rushing touchdowns. Last year the Pats passed for 50 TDs and rushed for 17. They ranked #1 in the league in passing yards, and #13 in rushing yards. And Maroney was dealing with injuries last season, and had a lot of good running games in the latter part of the year. My only concern is how the Patriots will use him. Will they give somebody else goal-line carries? Will he still be a non-factor as a receiver? But Maroney definitely has the potential for a Monster Season.

Disappointments in Waiting
Here are some running backs that I see disappointing owners hoping for a Monster Season.

Marshawn Lynch
For some reason I can't get Cadillac Williams out of my mind. He has solid though not spectacular rookie year production, which pushes him into the top two rounds of the next year's draft. And we know how that story ended.

Clinton Portis
I should like everything about him. But here's what I can't get over: in four years in Washington, Portis has averaged 3.97 yards per carry in the regular season and post-season. That's just around average. It wouldn't make me think Portis is ready for a Monster Season, and it makes me think he'll be dependent on his team's success for production. Of course, even with that average and with an up and down team, Portis has produced, so he will not be a complete dud. He just won't have a Monster Season.

Larry Johnson
I think it's over. I could be wrong, but I'm not going to be the one to risk using a high pick on him: 416 carries in 2007 may have destroyed him. It was a fun couple of years, though. On this prediction, though, I think if I'm wrong, I'll be very, very wrong.

Value
These guys aren't sleepers by any means, but I'll call them "Monster Season Sleepers." People think well enough to draft them as starters, but they probably don't expect a Monster Season. I think it's possible.

Brandon Jacobs
Two key facts excite me about Jacobs. First, last season he averaged 91.7 yards rushing per game (Adrian Peterson led the league with 95.8 yards per game). Second, he has been a goal-line back in the past. He also averaged 5.0 yards per attempt in the regular season, and plays in an offensive system that has been very beneficial to running backs (under Tom Coughlin, the Giants have ranked 11th, 6th, 7th, and 4th in rushing yards). I picked him with the first pick of the fourth round in the Hazelweird League.

Willis McGahee
Fantasy owners have probably gotten a little weary of McGahee, and see him as an "He is what he is" sort of player. I think he has one Monster Season in him. It could be this season, with Cam Cameron as the Ravens' offensive coordinator.

Conclusion
I didn't want to just provide position rankings here--I thought I'd provide my thoughts on particular running backs and some points for discussion. Now it's your turn: do you have any feelings (good or bad) about any fantasy running backs this season?

Pat Williams

Pat Williams has been one of my favorite Vikings for the past three seasons. When he's on his game, he's just exploding through the offensive line busting up plays, and it's a joy to watch.

In the Pioneer Press, Pat Williams talks about the team.

Patrick Reusse grows on me

Reusse says that "Fuss about Favre is nuts on both sides."

Tarvaris Jackson

We've been reading about Tarvaris Jackson's performance in Viking training camp, about how he's been up and down. He'll complete some nice passes, but he'll also throw the occasional interception. We tend to forget that many of us expect the Viking defense to be among the NFL's elite defenses this season, and so Jackson is practicing against what we hope is an elite unit. And the Pioneer Press notes Jackson looked good against the Chiefs in a practice scrimmage.

The focus is rightly on Jackson. But that's primarily because we expect the defense to be good, which makes us forget the standard of competition Jackson is facing in practice.

Favre

OK, think about it this way. Quarterback X has won MVPs, has set passing records, has won a lot of games, and is still playing at a very high level. Your favorite team is really good at every position except quarterback, perhaps dominant if they get a competent veteran quarterback. Would you want Quarterback X to join the team?

Me too.

Says Kevin Seiftert: "It is almost common knowledge that Favre wants to play for the Vikings."

I have a weird feeling this is happening. Favre is stubborn, and in this situation he does have some leverage. If he wants to force the issue to end up on the team he wants to, he just might.

My soul is twisting around, ready to snap in two.

Little Blizzard

Links
Thomas Tapeh (Star Tribune).

Madieu Williams and Darren Sharper (Pioneer Press).

Adrian Peterson (Pioneer Press).

Tarvaris Jackson and Bernard Berrian (Viking Update).

Tarvaris Jackson's practice (Star Tribune).

Just tell me how I'm supposed to feel (Access Vikings). Addendum: yes, just tell me how to feel (ESPN).

I'm really tired of the report card format for any type of team evaluation. For one thing, it's totally played. For another, it doesn't really make a lot of sense. Summer report cards? Report cards generally come after a course is completed, to evaluate the work already completed. But for what it's worth, USA Today gives the Vikings an A.

A different view on running back overuse (Advanced NFL Stats).

Playoff success since re-alignment (Cold, Hard Football Facts).

Narcissism
The Hazelweird Fantasy Draft is on Sunday. Afterward I will likely share some sincere fantasy football thoughts about players I like and dislike. Afterward I will also be recovering from drinking gin (a common enough occurrence), smoking cigars (an extremely rare occurrence), and eating a whole lot of cheese (I'm mostly vegan, but make cheese exceptions for social and special occasions--I've been fantasizing about pizza for days). This year I have no plans for wearing a headband (but I might--why not?) or growing a moustache.

So what sorts of things to you do for and during a fantasy draft?

Vikings in the Hall of Fame

Part Two of Football Outsiders' look at Hall of Fame respect by franchise covers the Vikings.

It's somebody else's turn to get infatuated with Troy Williamson's speed

Jason Cole at Yahoo! talks about Troy Williamson in Jacksonville.

There's also more talk about his past problems with dropped passes, with hope that it's in the past. Some other team's fans can get false hope from articles about how Williamson's dropped passes became a mental problem and he's really moved past it (though I've seen little discussed on another of Williamson's problems as a receiver: while he's fast enough to get open downfield, in his pro career he has always shown major problems adjusting to a ball in the air).

Williamson also talks about his bad relationship with Brad Childress, which is interesting.

Maybe we don't know what the Vikings are going to get in Bernard Berrian or Sidney Rice. And maybe Troy Williamson will really develop into an effective player. But I'm happier about the team's WRs this summer than I was last summer.

(so much so, Hazelweirders, that I'm thinking about using the 10th and 11th picks in Sunday's draft on Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice. But don't hold me to that).

Fill your head with fantasies of Jackson to Berrian

According to the Pioneer Press, Tarvaris Jackson and Bernard Berrian have been spending a lot of time working on football together.

I'm starting to believe. There's no reason for people to have great faith that Tarvaris Jackson will star this season--but I also see no reason to have firm belief that he'll suck, either.

And as Michael Lombardi writes, "I can't think of one player who will control the won/loss record of any team in the NFL more than Tarvaris Jackson."

This is why I'm having such trouble making a prediction on the Vikings' record. If Jackson struggles, I think the Vikes will go 7-9 (whether or not he gets benched). If Jackson plays competent football, I think the Vikes could win as many as 12 games. 10-6 or even 11-5 seems like a pretty reasonable prediction, but it really depends on Jackson's ability to consistently make plays and make good decisions.

Weekend Blizzard

It wouldn't be a professional sports league unless a team that has clearly not been disrespected didn't claim to be disrespected. Don Banks on the New York Giants.

A Star Tribune article on Bernard Berrian.

Sid Hartman talks about QB controversies in Viking history. For some reason, it amuses me to reflect on a Fran Tarkenton-Tommy Kramer QB controversy.

Zygi Wilf is out fielding punts and stuff (Pioneer Press).

I'm juiced about Laurence Maroney as a fantasy running back (or am I?). Now the Pats also have Lamont Jordan (Yahoo!). Is Lamont Jordan worth a late fantasy pick? No.

Should you pay any attention to Strength of Schedule for fantasy football analysis? Scott Pianowski says you shouldn't. The other thing I've been mulling over: should you pay attention to a team's new offensive coordinator?

Marvin Harrison practiced (USA Today).

An amusing enough fantasy mailbag with Michael Fabiano.

Football Outsiders examines Hall of Fame love by franchise. This is just part one--part two will include the Vikings.

Viking Training Camp

The Star Tribune lists five things to watch for in Viking training camp.

In my mind, there's only one thing to watch for: Brad Childress' goatee. Why is it? How long will it exist? Will it grow fuller? Are goatees now ruined forever? Did Childress go away this offseason to a hermitage and come back a new, enlightened man? Is Childress choosing a new identity? See, I don't think I could really be an NFL reporter. I would repeatedly ask questions about the interview subject's hair and facial hair.

Fantasy Vikings

At Pancake Blocks, Gregg Rosenthal makes some interesting fantasy predictions about the Minnesota Vikings.

I'm out of order, you're out of order, the whole SYSTEM is out of order!

If the Packers gave Brett Favre a cell phone, and Brett Favre then called the Vikings, then maybe Brett Favre should be punished for tampering with the Vikings! It was all a setup! A conspiracy! The next X-Files movie should check this out!

Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten

Jason Witten seems to be highly regarded among fantasy football enthusiasts for 2008. For example, Brandon Funston at Yahoo! has Jason Witten ranked 43rd overall, the top tight end on the list. He did have 96 receptions for 1,145 yards and seven touchdowns last season, so he should be highly regarded.

Funston has Tony Gonzalez ranked 54th overall, the fourth tight end on the list. But last year, Gonzalez' numbers were very comparable to Witten's: 99 receptions, 1,172 yards, and five touchdowns.

It was Gonzalez's seventh season in the last eight with 900+ yards. He's consistently produced at the tight end position. Why shouldn't Gonzalez be ranked ahead of Witten?

Witten does have better team context for support: he's got a good quarterback and a high scoring offense, while Gonzalez has neither. But Gonzalez has been a great tight end for a decade, with all sorts of good, bad, and mediocre quarterbacks--I'm not sure there's significant data to suggest Gonzalez will struggle to put up numbers with a lesser QB. Witten will get more help from his teammates, but that doesn't mean his numbers will significantly outpace Gonzalez's.

Witten did have more touchdowns than Gonzalez in 2007. But in the last four seasons, Witten has 20 TDs, Gonzalez 19. That's not a significant difference to suggest Witten will score more TDs than Gonzalez in 2008. After all, in his career, Gonzalez has matched or betterd Witten's career high of seven touchdowns in a season five times (furthermore, Witten played most of 2006 with Tony Romo, and only had one touchdown).

Jason Witten has established himself as a good fantasy tight end over the past four seasons, certainly. But the current perception values Witten, while people seem to have grown bored with Gonzalez' consistently high production. That makes Gonzalez the better fantasy pick--I would rank them very close together, but Witten will likely go a round or two before Gonzalez. While somebody else is drafting Witten, you can draft a quality RB, WR, or QB, and try get somebody like Gonzalez a bit later. Witten is good, but are you that confident he'll have a better year than Gonzalez? Than Antonio Gates? Than Kellen Winslow Jr.? Than Chris Cooley? So is it really worth selecting him before any other tight ends have been picked?

I never like taking a TE early in a snake draft--it requires you to pass on a potential starter at one of the more critical positions (RB, WR, QB). And I always like drafting those players that are so consistent over a long period of time that other fantasy football drafters have started taking them for granted.

(The standard caveat applies: Hazelweirders must speculate whether I actually believe any of this).

Blizzard

In ESPN's Training Camp power rankings, the Vikes are 11th.

Cold, Hard Football Facts provides some fun stat stuff for 2008.

Antonio Gates or Jason Witten? Yahoo! discusses it.

According to USA Today, Adrian Peterson is the second best current running back.

Peter Schrager of Fox Sports looks at the NFC North.

In USA Today's quarterback rankings, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning tie for #1. I'm glad. A lot of people rank Brady ahead of Manning after the 2007 season, but if this poll were done last summer, Manning would come out #1. What really strikes me is what happens from #3 on. There's no debate about the top two, but starting at #3, you could shift those rankings all around.

At Football Outsiders, Mike Tanier provides personality profiles based on your fantasy football drafting style. Take note, Hazelweirders: according to Tanier, the sort of person that picks WRs with his or her first two picks is a self-righteous vegan hippie.

Viking All-Time Team

Pro-Football-Reference.com has used Approximate Value "to come up with a post-merger all-franchise team for each franchise." Check out the NFC North.

I'm a bit surprised that Daunte Culpepper comes in ahead of Fran Tarkenton, and Matt Birk comes in ahead of Mick Tinglehoff.

According to this standard, the three greatest Vikings are three of the team's Hall of Famers: Alan Page, Ron Yary, and Carl Eller, who each have over 100. The other 90+ players are Cris Carter, Randall McDaniel, John Randle, and Chris Doleman.

If you really defined the Viking franchise's greatness over the years, you'd probably start at defensive line. There were the Purple People Eaters (Alan Page, Carl Eller, Jim Marshall, Gary Larsen), and later players like Chris Doleman, Keith Millard, John Randle, Henry Thomas, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and now Jared Allen.