MVP discussion: Chad Pennington and Peyton Manning

Kerry Byrne at Cold, Hard Football Facts calls Chad Pennington MVP, citing in particular the Dolphins turnaround.

But let's point out a few big differences between the 2007 Dolphins and the 2008 Dolphins that had little or nothing to do with Pennington:

--The '07 Fins gave up 27.3 points per game, ranking 30th in the league; the '08 Fins improved to 19.8 points per game, 9th in the league.  That is an improvement of 7.5 points per game.

--The '07 Fins got 8 combined games out of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams; the '08 Fins got 32 combined games out of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.

--The '08 Fins added the 1st pick in the draft, offensive tackle Jake Long.

--The '07 Fins were coached by Cam Cameron; the '08 Fins were coached by Tony Sparano.

Certainly Chad Pennington was a major reason for the Dolphins amazing improvement.  But these are four significant reasons for a turnaround that have little to do with Pennington:

--a new coach (a change in head coach is the biggest change a team can make, even bigger than a change in quarterback)

--the top available college prospect

--important offensive players avoiding injuries

--a defense that allowed more than a touchdown fewer points per game than the year before (the offense improved 4.9 points per game)

It takes many, many factors for a team to improve from 1-15 to 11-5.  I would in particular highlight the Dolphins' defensive improvement, which can't be credited much at all to Pennington.  Pennington deserves a great deal of credit, but I do not think his role in the Dolphins' turnaround makes him MVP.

We can also use one of Byrne's arguments against him. Byrne dismisses the '08 RB MVP candidates by noting that

"But their seasons pale in comparison to those of the most recent ball carriers to earn MVP honors. LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), Shaun Alexander (2005) and Marshall Faulk (2000) all set TD-scoring records on Super Bowl contenders."

If the numbers for Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, and DeAngelo Williams "pale in comparison" to recent RB MVPs, how do Chad Pennigton's numbers compare to some recent QB MVPs? Pennington threw for 3,653 yards and 19 touchdown passes. '07 MVP Tom Brady threw for 4,806 yards and 50 TDs. '04 MVP Peyton Manning threw for 4,557 yards and 49 TDs. Keep going, and you'll see that all recent QB MVPs had far superior numbers to Chad Pennington. In fact, the last QB to win MVP with fewer than 24 TD passes was John Elway in 1987 (19 TD passes).

If you're going to compare RBs to recent RB MVPs and find their stats lacking, it's hard not to compare Pennington to recent QB MVPs, where you will also find his numbers lacking.

(Let's make two more points here.  First, Byrne claims that none of the RB candidates were the "singular forces" in a team turnaround that Pennington was.  But as I've suggested, Pennington wasn't a "singular force" in a turnaround, and furthermore, one RB candidate, Michael Turner, was a major factor in a team's improvement from 4-12 to 11-5.  Second, the comparison of an MVP candidate from one year to MVPs of previous years is relatively irrelevant.  Byrne himself says this year features a "lack of great competitors" for MVP, that it is a "down year for MVP candidates."  While comparisons to previous MVPs have some use, this year's RBs aren't running against previous MVPs; they're running against the available field this season).

I still think Peyton Manning was more valuable to the Colts than Chad Pennington was to the Dolphins.  Byrne compares Pennington to Manning, and says:

"But Pennington outclassed Manning this year in every major efficiency category, including completion percentage (67.4 to 66.8), yards per attempt (7.7 to 7.2), TD:INT ratio (2.7 to 1 vs. 2.3 to 1) and passer rating (97.4 to 95.0)."

As you can see, however, Pennington was not significantly superior to Manning in any of these categories.  Byrne further notes the team turnaround:

"Additionally, Manning did not spark any kind of improvement in his team. [...] Pennington, meanwhile, sparked a dramatic turnaround in his team’s fortunes and enters the playoffs as division champ."

Of course, one reason Manning did not need to spark "any kind of improvement in his team" was because Manning was on the Colts last year.  Manning was largely responsible for the '07 Colts' success; it strikes me as an odd argument, then, to say that Manning shouldn't be given too much credit for the '08 Colts' success because the '07 Colts were good too.  Of course we don't know, but I'm guessing if the Colts didn't have Manning in '07 and had him in '08, the '08 Colts would have improved greatly, too.  

I think Byrne is fetishizing a year-to-year turnaround more than assessing performance in the 2008 season.  When Byrne dismisses the candidacies of Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, he also notes their respective teams' record difference between '07 and '08.  But I'm not sure why that matters so much: though the MVP award is hazily and diversely defined, I don't think a team's change in record from one year to the next should be the deciding factor that Byrne makes it.

I think a case could be made that Manning is more directly responsible for the Colts' 12-4 record than Pennington is for the Dolphins' 11-5 record.  The 2008 Colts were 8-1 in games decided by seven or fewer points.  It was Manning who keyed the comeback win over the Vikings,  threw the game-winning touchdown against the Texans, threw the game-winning touchdown against the Steelers, led the quick drive for a game-winning field goal against the Chargers, and keyed the comeback win over the Jaguars.  To be fair, at least three of the Colts' close wins featured late defensive scores by the Colts.  But without Manning, I don't see the Colts winning half the games they did.

Manning was also great despite a lack of a running game.  The Colts rushed for merely 1,274 yards (31st in the league) and just 3.4 yards per attempt (32nd in the league).  Whatever offensive success the Colts had relied on their elite passing attack.  The Dolphins were much more solid running the ball, going for 1,897 yards (11th) and 4.2 yards per attempt (15th).  So in the running game, the Dolphins gained an additional 0.8 yards per attempt over the Colts.  You could argue that offensively, Manning had to do more with less than Pennington, since the Dolphins were solid running the ball, and the Colts were terrible.  If we're going to look at team context (which Byrne does in citing the Dolphin turnaround), we can observe that Manning carried his offense despite no running game, and Pennington didn't have to do that.

There's also a statistical argument for Manning over Pennington.  In Football Outsiders' statistical analysis, Manning tops Pennington significantly (36.0% to 25.6% in DVOA, 1,702 to 1,152 in DYAR).  By Football Outsiders' advanced metric, Manning was both more efficient and more productive.  And in cumulative season numbers, Peyton Manning's 4,002 yards and 27 TDs tops Chad Pennington's 3,653 yards and 19 TDs.

Chad Pennington is certainly a legitimate MVP candidate, and Cold, Hard Football Facts is quite reasonable to propose him as a candidate.  But I find some of Byrne's arguments lacking, and find that Peyton Manning is a more deserving MVP than Pennington.

Disappointment and Attendence

I decided not to attend the Viking-Giant game this past weekend (I didn't have tickets, but like Walter in The Big Lebowski can get you a toe, Viking tickets aren't hard to get). Whether I attended the game or not, I was going to be devastated if the Vikings lost; however, if I made the effort to go to the game and had to walk out of the Metrodome after a loss, I knew I'd be dead inside. And frankly, the Vikings have so frequently disappointed our expectations, that it was fair to believe the Vikings would lose the game and miss the playoffs.

So I'm not surprised the Vikings are struggling to sell out this week's playoff game against the Eagles. Viking fans have been repeatedly disappointed by this team. Going to the game is an act of faith that a lot of Viking fans can't muster anymore. Isn't it fair to expect to be disappointed? Isn't a "wait and see" approach reasonable?

I may go to the playoff game on Sunday (if the game gets blacked out, I'll certainly go). But I'm guessing a lot of Viking fans feel right now like I felt last week. We expect to be disappointed, and don't want to give the money, time, and effort to go be disappointed in person.

Perhaps it's like the Seinfeld episode when George's girlfriend says they need to talk; he knows she's going to break up with him, so he leaves, then spends a big part of the episode just trying to avoid her. We want to avoid the in-person breakup. No, it's not like that: we can't avoid it, because whether it happens on TV or in person (or any other way), the breakup is going to happen. So let's create a different analogy:

You know your significant other is about to break up with you. He/she is willing to do it over the phone; it might take a while, but you don't have to exert money or effort to receive the phone call. Or, he/she is willing to break up with you in person, but you'll have to deal with traffic getting to his/her place, pay for a parking space, pay the doorman $30-160 just to get in the door, sit around waiting, then proceed to get brutally dumped in person for three hours, with three minute breaks every ten minutes for you to just think about the awful things this person is making you feel, and when it's all over, you can leave the place and deal with traffic trying to get home while you just feel terrible about everything.

Wouldn't you take the over-the-phone breakup?

I'm guessing that's how a lot of Viking fans are feeling now. Viking fans expect the breakup, and will take it as cheaply and easily as they can. That's what comes from rooting for a team that brutally crushes us at every moment it gives us the most hope. And I don't even have to recite the litany of those crushing moments--they were so memorably heart-breaking, you won't ever forget them.

Repeatedly Disappointed Expectations Begets Apathy

The Vikings still have a lot of tickets to sell for a playoff game (Star Tribune).

Week 17 Blizzard

Luck

Sports are a lot about luck and timing. The '76 Vikings got to the Super Bowl, where they got blown out by the juggernaut Oakland Raiders. The '77 Vikings didn't get to the Super Bowl, where they would have blown out the Denver Broncos. Swap those years, and I'm 6% less neurotic.

Some seasons an 8-8 team makes the playoffs, and some seasons a 10-6 team misses the playoffs. Sometimes a 9-7 record will win you a division title, and sometimes a 12-4 record will earn you a Wild Card.

I believe pretty strongly in the power of Hazard, but even I'm appalled that an 11-5 team isn't making the playoffs but an 8-8 team in the same conference in the same year is.

Waiting

The Vikings-Eagles game is the last game of Wild Card weekend, at 3:30 Sunday.

Drew Brees and Dan Marino

I'm glad Brees didn't break Marino's yardage record of 5,084 yards, but I'm even disappointed Brees became the second QB to break 5,000 yards.

Dan Marino's 1984 season was better than Drew Brees' 2008 season in every conceivable way. Not only did Marino throw 48 TD passes that season (14 more than Brees threw this season), but Marino threw for 5,084 yards while leading the Dolphins to a 14-2 record--that's six more wins than Brees' Saints. Marino averaged 9.0 yards per attempt and had a 108.9 rating. Drew Brees averaged 8.0 yards per attempt (very good, but a full yard under Marino) and had a 96.2 rating. Marino is better than Drew Brees in every way, and his 1984 season was better than any season Drew Brees will ever have.

Colts and Chargers

Here's the difference between the 8-8 San Diego Chargers and the 12-4 Indianapolis Colts: the Colts won close games. The Chargers were 2-7 in games decided by seven or less, and the Colts were 8-1 in games decided by seven or less. I don't think the quality of these two teams is very different. Certainly the Colts were luckier. Maybe Peyton Manning is a clutch QB (at the very least, he's an elite passer and he remains an elite passer when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter). But this should be a good playoff matchup.

2008 Stat Notes

Adrian Peterson wins the rushing title with 1,760 yards.

Peyton Manning threw for 4,002 yards and 27 TD passes. It was his ninth 4,000 yard season, and in each of his 11 seasons he's thrown for 26+ TDs.

Brett Favre led the league in interceptions for the third time; it was his sixth season with 20+ interceptions.

Ed Reed led the league with nine interceptions; it was his second time leading the league and his sixth time in the top-10 in interceptions.

Kurt Warner has now had three seasons with 4,000 yards and 30 TDs.

"No, they weren't all happy days."

Some reasonable complaints about Brad Childress at Grant's Tomb.

"The call is from heroism. Do you accept the charges?"

Pat Williams returns?

Playoffs

It feels like a successful season: 10 wins, a division title, and a home playoff game, all for the first time since 2000. But let us remember the 11-5 1992 Vikings, and the 10-6 1994 Vikings: they each got blown out in home playoff games. Feelings can turn sour quickly. The Vikes have won a bunch of division titles, but those division titles don't keep me warm in the cold, dark night.

Playoff Game Against the Eagles

The Eagles are a very good football team; going into week 17, they ranked #2 in Football Outsiders' DVOA (they're probably back to #1 now).

But they're also capable of terrible duds: if their tie against the Bengals and blowout loss to the Ravens seem too long ago, look no further than their week 16 10-3 loss to Washington.

Playoff football is often about the team on a hot streak; games from earlier in the season don't matter as much as how the team is playing recently.  The Eagles look hot after their 44-6 week 17 win over Dallas, but that Washington game was just a week earlier.

The Eagles have struggled in close games this season: they're 1-5-1 in games decided by seven or less.  Andy Reid has been criticized for some of his decisions in close games; if the Vikes keep it close, the Eagles could choke it (but then everybody else relies on the Vikes to choke when it matters, so don't get too excited).

It will be a tough game for the Vikings to win, and they could get blown out by a very talented Eagle team.  But in Thunderdome (hopefully the crowd is energized for the first home playoff game since the 2000 season), it's a winnable game against an up and down team.

History

2008 is the Vikings' 17th division title.

Adrian Peterson has likely clinched his first rushing title with 1,760 yards; he is the first Viking to ever lead the league in rushing yards.

NFC NORTH CHAMPS!

10-6.  Division Title.  Hosting a playoff game.

I watch close Viking games with a knot in my stomach.  When Longwell's field goal went through, I had a physical sensation of warm happiness slowing descending upon me from above as I couldn't stop smiling.

Now, who would be a better matchup for the Vikes: the Cowboys or the Eagles?  I watch this Dallas-Philadelphia game not knowing whom to root against.

Overkill

Sports Illustrated's recent issue proclaims 2008 "Best Sports Year Ever."  Surely, then, the cover would feature one of 2008's exciting sports stories: highlights of the Olympics (Michael Phelps?  The U.S.A. Basketball team?), or maybe the Giants' Super Bowl upset of the Patriots, or maybe even a Celtics-Lakers NBA Finals.

Nope.

The cover photo and feature was about what's happened to Michael Vick's dogs.

The Michael Vick dog-fighting story was primarily a 2007 story, yet a December 2008 SI cover proclaiming 2008 the "Best Sports Year Ever" features Michael Vick's dogs.

I'm left with two reactions.  First, that sports coverage overkills the negative.  The SI story is supposed to be a positive story about how the dogs are doing well now, but it is another chance to talk about a very negative story (and how does it justify a cover?).

Second, the excessive coverage of the Michael Vick dogfighting story continues to appear to me as scapegoating.  I'm a freaking member of PETA, so I don't think I'm making light of dogfighting when I say this.  But in a society that mostly doesn't care how animals are treated, that continues to eat historically high amounts of meat, that calls killing animals by hunting "sport," the lengthy coverage of a very visible, public, and egregious mistreatment of animals seems to me a psychological distraction.

Interceptions and Success

Advanced NFL Stats notes that interceptions are part of the game, and you can go too far trying to avoid them:

"While a lack of turnovers certainly helps win games, if it becomes a passer's primary goal it could be harmful.

"Interceptions are a part of the bargain, a natural consequence to throwing the ball. You can guarantee zero interceptions by playing in an extremely conservative way, tossing short passes, taking sacks, or throwing the ball away anytime a defender is in the same zip code as the receiver. You can minimize interceptions, but you'll lose every game doing it."

Which suggests to me that an extremely low INT rate isn't the sure sign of an elite QB.  Furthermore, as Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders pointed out in warning fantasy footballers about David Garrard, a low INT rate is often lucky, and will likely fluctuate the next season.  This means if you rank QBs by their ability to avoid turnovers, you'll have a lot of fluctuation from year to year (suggesting further it's not the best way to evaluate the quality of the QB).  For example, this season Chad Pennington is #1 and David Garrard is #19 on Dave Berri's ranking, which heavily punishes turnovers.  Last season at the same time, David Garrard ranked #5 and Chad Pennington ranked #23.  Pennington's INT rate flipped from 3.5% to 1.6%; Garrard's INT rate flipped from o.9% to 2.2%.    If your system puts QBs who avoid turnovers at the top, it will fluctuate a great deal, for as Barnwell points out, a excessively low INT total is usually followed by a "major correction."  Berri's system may accurately assess a QB's performance (his existence), but I don't think it gets at the QB's inherent quality (his essense).  Football Outsiders is probably better at that (though in my opinion, Football Outsiders' statistical analysis is better at assessing team quality than individual player quality).

On winning 10 games

The 2003 Vikings and 2005 Vikings each went 9-7 and didn't even make the playoffs.  So if the Vikings win the division at 9-7, we can be happy, but it's not a special accomplishment--it would make this Viking team no better than other Viking teams this decade.  It would be nice to see the Vikes not only win their first division title since 2000, but have their first 10+ win season since 2000, too.

And I never like it if a team wins 10 games because a better team rests its starters in week 17.  I've never felt good about the 1994 Vikings clinching a 10-6 record and the division against the 49er B-squad in week 17 (it might be easier to feel good about if the Bears hadn't kicked the Vikings' ass in the Metrodome in the playoff game).  But that doesn't mean there would be anything to apologize for.  The 2003 Vikings blew the division themselves (losing four games to the league's 4-12 games, the Charles Tillman disaster, and the Nate Poole disaster game), but they also lost the division because the Packers blew out the Denver Bronco B-squad in week 17.  I've yet to have any Packer fan express any sheepishness about that to me.  So the Vikings should get their 10 wins and division title any way they can get it (and the Vikings have been tough at home this season--I think they'd have a chance to beat the Giants at full strength in Thunderdome, if given the chance.  It's not the Vikings' fault if they don't get that chance).

Viking Collapses

Pioneer Press takes a look at recent late season Viking collapses to prepare us for this season's potential collapse.

Last night I dreamed that the Vikings beat the Giants: they clinched the win when Erin Henderson sacked Eli Manning on 4th and 15 at the end of the game (this dream was rather specific).  In the dream, I then came on to blog about the Vikings winning the division.  Then I woke up, and realized it was days until the game and the Vikes hadn't clinched anything.

Measuring Wide Receivers

Defensive Indifference on why receiving yards is the most important stat for WRs.

Turnovers and Success

A good post at pro-football-reference.com on fumbles, Adrian Peterson, and offensive success.

National Fun League, week 17

The two NFC North games that matter

Vikings v. Giants (in Thunderdome)

If the Metrodome ever mattered, it will be Sunday. If the Vikings win, then there will be a playoff game in the Metrodome the very next week.

This is a game when the Vikes could miss Pat Williams badly; Giants RB Derrick Ward has 948 yards (5.7 per carry), Brandon Jacobs has 1,089 (5.0 per carry), and Ahmad Bradshaw has 347 (5.7 per carry).

Eli Manning has been terrible against the Vikings, throwing four interceptions in a 2007 game and four interceptions in a 2005 game.  

Bears @ Texans

The triumvirate of Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Steve Slaton may be able to break the Chicago defense apart.  Or balls could bounce off punt returners' feet, the Bears could block field goals, and a Kyle Orton led team could win its 10th game.

The Residents of the state of Texas are 5-2 at home; the Bears are 3-4 on the road.

The other games with playoff implications

Dolphins @ Jets

Chad Sexington gets to try beat his former team. This, you've heard from every person who writes about football. Except the part about calling him Chad Sexington.

Cowboys @ Eagles
Holy Crap, does this game look good. Hopefully on Sunday the Vikings have already clinched the division, and we can relax and watch this game.

Broncos @ Chargers
I'm slightly intrigued because I wonder which team will have a better chance of upsetting Indianapolis in the Wild Card playoff game. The Chargers are a better team and can play the Colts close (evidence), but the Broncos play in Denver and could have a snowy, cold game, which could trouble the Colts.

Patriots @ Bills
Have I missed the "Tom Brady is a system quarterback and 2008 proves it" discussions? I assume they are happening on message boards and such.

Jaguars @ Ravens
The Jags just don't look like they have a spoiler game in them.

Oakland @ Tampa Bay
My wild guess is the Bucs make the playoffs.

MVP (is AP the most valuable Viking?)
I really think Peyton Manning will win MVP now: his numbers are good, his team is in the playoffs, and he's getting a lot of praise for gutting the Colts to some close wins. Adrian Peterson just fumbles too much--he could come back into MVP contention with a domination Week 17 game in a Viking win, but I don't think it will be enough.

And in my opinion, Manning deserves it more than AP. Peterson has had some spectacular games in some important Viking wins, but the Vikings are a defensive football team: they've won because the defense has controlled the game (in fact the Vikes have lost some games despite great defensive efforts because of offensive turnovers or offensive insufficiency). I don't think Peterson is more valuable to the Vikings than Manning is to the Colts. In fact if I had to pick one Viking player, I might even say Jared Allen is more important to the Vikes than AP. The Vikings have a lot of good defensive players (Kevin Williams, Pat Williams, and Antoine Winfield rightly join Allen in the Pro Bowl), but it is the addition of Allen that has made the Vikings a fierce pass-rushing team (tied for 4th in sacks) and a complete defense. Chester Taylor is a good running back that can competently replace AP when needed, but the Vikings don't have a DE that can have anywhere near the impact Allen can. I might even say AP is the third most important player on the team, behind Allen and Kevin Williams, a dominant force in the middle that stuffs the run, rushes the passer, and generally disrupts offensive plays.

I love AP (except the fumbling); I just think the defense has been more important than the offense, and that some individual defensive players like Jared Allen and Kevin Williams have been more important to the Vikings' success than AP.

Did you see the Viking episode of How I Met Your Mother?

In the episode, Marshall (a Minnesota native) takes Robin to a Minnesota bar, where everybody wears Viking clothing and complains about the '99 NFC Championship game.  Here's a clip.  It's silly but it was enjoyable to see all the Viking clothing and such.

Links
Robert Smith's advice to AP about fumbles (Pioneer Press).

Ray Edwards and Gary Larsen (Pat Reusse). This is one example of the advantage of having a sportswriter cover the same team for decades.

The Tarvaris Revolution continues (Star Tribune).

What's Marvin Harrison without Peyton Manning (pro-football-reference.com)?

T-Jack starts (Access Vikings, Viking Update).

TNABACG is also having flashbacks.

So it was Esera Tuaolo's fault (Out Sports).

Adrian Peterson has a healthy lead for the rushing title.

Week

An early National Fun League post again, for another unpredictable week: there may or may not be more posts this week.

Happy Festivus!

It will come to week 17

It was hard enough convincing my soul that I wasn't rooting for Green Bay, but rooting against Chicago.  And then the Packers piss the game away anyway (I'd be interested to see if the Bears are capable of winning a game without fluky special teams plays).

Now the Vikings need to either win against the Giants, or have the Bears lose to the Texans.  If you're having flashbacks to week 17 of the 2003 season, you're not alone.

The Vikings will either host a playoff game or not make the playoffs.

Coming off the ledge: Falcons 24, Vikings 17

Fumble!

National Friday League, week 16 (2)

National Fun League, week 16 (1)

Tarvaris Jackson and the Playoffs
Tarvaris Jackson starts this Sunday (Star Tribune).

If the Vikings are going to win the Super Bowl this season, there will be three primary reasons:

1. The defense will dominate.
2. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will stay hot.
3. The team will get some lucky breaks.

And I'm starting to think that to contribute to those three causes, Tarvaris Jackson will be a better quarterback for the Vikings at this point than Gus Frerotte.

For one thing, Frerotte throws a lot of interceptions: even if the defense dominates, Frerotte often gave opponents direct points or a short field. Frerotte is also immobile: Jackson forces defenses to account for another element to the offense, and he can make positive plays in other ways. But Frerotte has also peaked. Tarvaris Jackson might just add a fourth reason the Vikings could win the Super Bowl: a young quarterback gets surprisingly hot. That alone wouldn't do it, but a productive Tarvaris Jackson, supporting a dominant defense, dominant running backs, and getting some lucky breaks, could push the Vikings far.

Yes, I'm probably delusional anyway, but what of it? Just maybe Tarvaris Jackson has improved, that Tavaris Jackson right now is much better than Tarvaris Jackson of weeks 1 and 2, and of 2007. And what else do I have but my hope? I'm walking around having unsought fantasies about a major Viking playoff push. My imagination is conjuring a Super Bowl, so I may as well try rationalize my imaginative wanderings somehow.

Brad Childress
Is it just that the Vikings have been winning that the railing against Childress has tempered down? Yes, probably. But let's posit another thought: just as players can improve, coaches can improve.

Brad Childress today should be a better coach than Brad Childress in 2006 or 2007 or even early 2008. I think we have a tendency to view coaches as static, but in any field, experience usually brings improvement. Coaches too can change and improve.

Peyton Manning
One thing that makes Manning so spectacular is his downfield accuracy; he often hits receivers in precise spots 20 or 30 yards downfield. Last night he had some passes that he drilled right into gaps, right to the receiver's hands. I like watching him because he does take those mid-range shots regularly, and hits them consistently. Last night he had completions nine completions of 15+ yards: 41, 29, 23, 21, 33, 15, 18, 15, 21. That makes football fun to watch.

Word Choice in Headlines
USA Today has a blog post titled "Gus angry about Vikes' move to Tarvaris." And maybe Frerotte really is angry, and reporters could perceive that anger in their reporting. But in the quote provided, Frerotte says ""Obviously, I'm not happy about it." To me, being angry about something, and not being happy about something, are not the same thing.

A minor quibble, but attention to word choice is important--the English language has a big vocabulary, and a lot of words that seem similar but have nuanced differences.

Links
Sammy Baugh (fuh- baw, Cold, Hard Football Facts, I Dislike Your Favorite Team).

Adrian Peterson and MVP (Star Tribune, Pioneer Press).

The Falcons rank #24 in CHFF's Hog Index (the Vikes rank #4).

Manning and MVP (Jason Cole, Mark Craig).

Adrian Peterson #1 on MVP ranks (Bucky Brooks).

Philip Rivers should have been a Pro Bowler (MJD).

Grant's Tomb on the Viking-Falcon game, Pat Williams, and Brad Childress.

National Fun League, week 16

Vikings-Falcons Preview
Fear the Falcons?
I haven't watched the 2008 Falcons since week one, and haven't followed their box scores terribly closely, so I wanted to look closely at the stats on pro-football-reference.com to learn about this team. And here's what I think:

The Vikings can destroy this team.

I've heard worries raised that the Falcons are #1 in the league in rushing offense, and they could exploit the Vikings without Pat Williams. But the Falcons rank #15 in rush yards per attempt (in other words, average), and Pat Williams wasn't the entire run defense. Kevin Williams will still line up in the middle, and the linebackers and even defensive backs are good run tacklers. I don't think the Falcons are going to come in and run all over the Vikes in Thunderdome (though there may be room for them to break off some longer runs).

The Vikings can exploit the Falcon defense: they rank #24 in yards allowed, #22 in rushing yards allowed, #22 in rush touchdowns allowed, and (this is key) #29 in rush yards per attempt allowed. And their pass defense is basically average (#15 in net yards per attempt).

The 9-5 Falcons are a surprise story, but they are 3-4 on the road, while the Vikings are 5-1 at home. And the Viking pass rush has been ferocious at home: Matt Ryan could get knocked around.

But here's some snow in your shoes, too. Last week I pointed out the Cardinals bad record outside its own terrible division. It's worth noting, then, that the Falcons are 6-2 outside of their excellent division (inside their division they have a home-and-home split with everybody). The Falcons are a good football team.

I'll trust Thunderdome.

MVP
Adrian Peterson: MVP is usually a quarterback's award, but in a season when with no clear QB candidate, a running back can claim it. He leads the league in yards rushing and yards from scrimmage, and his nine 100 yard games have been a major factor pushing the Vikings toward a division title. In the history of the AP MVP, most MVP RBs won the rushing title their MVP year (exceptions: Marshall Faulk, Thurman Thomas, Larry Brown, and Paul Hornung. Thomas, and Brown led the league in yards per scrimmage, Faulk had a record 26 TDs--which looked more impressive at the time; it's now been broken three times--and Paul Hornung is just an overrated running back--he wins MVP with 742 yards from scrimmage because he also kicks, and Jim Brown had 1,867 yards from scrimmage in the same year. Let's be clear on that: Jim Brown had 1,125 more yards from scrimmage than the NFL MVP in 1961. Nobody's ever going to convince me that Paul Hornung lived up to the Golden Boy image. Wikipedia also notes that Hornung "is the only player from a losing team (his University of Notre Dame team finished 2-8 that year) ever to win the [Heisman]trophy." There's a lot of things that don't make sense to me about Hornung's place in football history. But this parenthetical is out of hand even for me, so let's just move on).

Peyton Manning: Manning's numbers are low by his extraordinary standards, and the Colts look shakier than they've looked in years, yet Manning could claim his second-and-a-half MVP (when a player wins co-MVP, I only think we should give credit for half an MVP). I perceive commentators to be giving Manning more credit for the intangible stuff than they have in the past: leadership, willing a limping team to victory, making clutch plays. According to Football Outsiders' stats, he's still one of the top statistical QBs.

DeMarcus Ware: He now has 19 sacks, and it is Dallas' defense that keys the Cowboys now (holding opponents to 10 or less in four of the last seven games). It's an outside possibility.

James Harrison: The stat-filler for a dominant defense and possible #1 seed. I think he'll probably still win Defensive Player of the Year, but the third defensive player to win MVP (after Alan Page and Lawrence Taylor) will probably be a bigger name than Harrison.

Week 16 Games
Games of note:

Colts-Jaguars: only because I've been looking forward to it for weeks. I've been stuck in grim isolation grading end-of-the-semester work. It's to the point I'm talking to the papers while I grade them: my wife overhears me and worries she's now the wife in A Beautiful Mind. And I've known that if I finish all my work, I get to relax and watch Peyton Manning with a peaceful mind.

Cowboys-Ravens: It doesn't seem we get a game like this often: December gives us a lot of intense, important games between playoff contenders, but an AFC-NFC matchup featuring 9-5 Wild Card contenders that could miss the playoffs? That's different.

Steelers-Titans: That Steeler defense scares me; they're pretty much the best at everything. It's the one thing I can barely work into my walking fantasies--but I still manage (see below).

Bills-Broncos: I always root for a division winner to have at least nine wins so I don't have to feel ridiculous watching them host a home playoff game. Go Broncos.

Cardinals-Patriots: See above.

Panthers-Giants: In many of my walking fantasies, the Vikings pull it off with a two-seed (see below). This game could be relevant to that.

Packers-Bears. In week 17, 2003, the Seahawks played the 49ers on Saturday; if they lost, the Vikings were guaranteed to make the playoffs. I watched the game relatively indifferently: I just badly wanted the Vikings to win Sunday to win the division outright. You may remember the rest (IT HAUNTS MY DREAMS!). In week 17, 2004, the Vikings lost a chance to clinch a playoff spot and were 8-8. I followed the other games relatively indifferently: I've always felt like an 8-8 team doesn't really deserve to make the playoffs and is just lucky if it does, so I somehow didn't care whether tie-breaking scenarios gave the Vikes a playoff game. You may remember what happened the next week after they made the playoffs (IT DAZZLES MY DREAMS!). So I've learned my lesson: I don't care how, I just want the Vikings to make the playoffs.

"Shine out, fair sun, till I have bought a glass/ That I may see my shadow as I pass"

Lately, while I'm walking around, I catch myself having deluded fantasies about the Vikings winning the Super Bowl. I try to convince myself to stop, I'm just hurting myself, but my imagination keeps creating wild scenarios in which I'm celebrating a Viking Super Bowl win. I try not to do it, but I start thinking about who to call that night, about which Viking shirt to wear to work the next day, about how big my smile will be. It's brutal.

Fantasy Narcissism
Bernard Berrian and Anthony Gonzalez have been my regular starting wide receivers for a long time, and I'm in 3rd place in the Hazelweird League, with a (very far) outside chance of winning the thing. This still makes no sense to me.

Links
Viking injuries (PFT).

The Williamses could win this legal dispute (Star Tribune).

Tarvaris Jackson (Pioneer Press).

Some Vikings are good fellows (Pioneer Press).

Cedric Griffin (Star Tribune).

Adrian Peterson for MVP (Vikings.com).

Football Outsiders' Ned Macey look at the Vikings-Cardinals game at ESPN (via The Ragnarok, which is once again in action).

Sammy Baugh died (Sports Illustrated).

MVP contenders (USA Today).

Peyton Manning for MVP (Fox Sports).

The Steeler defense (Cold, Hard Football Facts).

Brett Favre in the Pro Bowl (Advanced NFL Stats).

Methodology for ranking defenses (Pro-football-reference.com).

The commercial life
A while back Moderately Cerebral Bias wrote about the religious imagery and language in Nike's LeBron James ads. The new commercial with the rosin continues that vein, in my opinion. When LeBron claps his hands, a mystical cloud explodes from his hands, a powerful burst of air and energy, and it spreads like a spiritual energy (or the Holy Spirit) to all sorts of people he encounters. I just get a religious feel from the commercial.

Whom would you throw a shoe at?
A reasonable question: what person in the world of sports would you most like to throw a shoe at? Well, I don't think I'd throw a shoe at anybody (pacifism and all). So let me adjust: what sports figure would you most want to see react to getting a shoe thrown at him/her during a press conference?

For me, it's obviously Kevin McHale. The man is a disaster, and can't be disentangled from the Timberwolves soon enough. It would slightly amuse me to see him ducking a flung shoe.

Weekend
Descartes speculated that all reality was an illusion created by an evil genius; sometimes I think an evil genius has devised ways for me to miss Viking games. On Sunday, I will be spending time with family for Christmas, and I don't know if there will be a TV on during the festivities.

But do you think George Bailey ever fretted missing a football game for family time? And he's the richest man in town! Well, I guess he did spend much of his life fretting missing world travel. Maybe an incompetent angel will visit me and show me what the Christmas party would be like if I went to the Viking game instead. I think it would be exactly the same, except there would be more wine left for others.

Have a pleasant week and weekend, everybody.

Viking Pro Bowlers

Notably Antoine Winfield (Star Tribune).

Alack the day

It wasn't all clouds of heaven. Alas, Pat Williams is hurt.

This is bad news, of course. But Kevin Williams has become a dominating player in every way, and I think he'll do a stout job holding the middle. In 2005 and 2006, I thought PW was the team's best defensive player; now it is KW.