Saturday, June 24, 2006

Long Research Project

I believe that too much focus is placed on championships when evaluating individual players. Certainly great players elevate their games in clutch moments, but championships are won by teams. For the sake of narrative simplicity, championships often get personified by an individual or small group. No matter what the causes of the Patriots three Super Bowls, Brady and Belichick will be the figures who leap out as the symbolic faces of those championships. As a result, Brady will get credit for winning the championships. In fact, the Patriots team won the championships (though I am firmly convinced that Brady and Belichick are the primary reasons they won the championships).

I thought I'd go back to 1957 (Bill Russell's rookie season, and in my mind the start of the NBA as we know it) and look at each season's champion. I would pick out the team's best player, then pick out the second best player, and see if there are other notable greats on the team. I can make arguments about why I'd choose a player as the best or second best on the team, but I'll save them for now. Choosing comes from statistical and non-statistical reasoning. The point here is to look at the individual players who personify their teams' championships, and then see what help there was.

I'm collecting the data from basketball-reference.com. For the second best players, I'll list their ppg, rpg, and apg to illustrate their contributions. I'm giving regular season stats, but I'm looking at playoff stats too to determine importance to team.

I'm doing this for two reasons. First, I want to show that most great players that win championships do so because they have other great players around them. Second, I want to see which players we could say really did carry teams to championships; in other words, who won titles with the worst #2? That's hard to say in the cases of teams that are legendary for their team play, but I'll still take Rick Barry in '75 and Hakeem Olajuwon in '94 for winning titles without a great #2 at the time.

1957: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Bill Russell
#2: Bob Cousy (20.6-4.8-7.5)
Others: Bill Sharman

1958: St. Louis Hawks
Best Player: Bob Pettitt
#2: Cliff Hagen (19.9-10.1-2.5)

1959: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Bill Russell
#2: Bob Cousy (20.0-5.5-8.6)
Others: Bill Sharman, Sam Jones

1960: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Bill Russell
#2: Tom Heinsohn (21.7-10.6-2.5)
Others: Bill Sharman, Bob Cousy, Sam Jones

1961: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Bill Russell
#2: Tom Heinsohn (21.3-9.9-1.9)
Others: Bill Sharman, Bob Cousy, Sam Jones

1962: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Bill Russell
#2: Tom Heinsohn (22.1-9.5-2.1)
Others: Bob Cousy, Sam Jones

1963: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Bill Russell
#2: Sam Jones (19.7-5.2-3.2)
Others: Bob Cousy, John Havlicek

1964: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Bill Russell
#2: Sam Jones (19.4-4.6-2.7)
Others: John Havlicek

1965: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Bill Russell
#2: Sam Jones (25.9-5.1-2.8)
Others: John Havlicek

1966: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Bill Russell
#2: Sam Jones (23.2-5.1-3.2)
Others: John Havlicek

1967: Philadelphia 76ers
Best Player: Wilt Chamberlain
#2: Hal Greer (22.1-5.3-3.8)
Others: Chet Walker, Billy Cunningham

1968: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Bill Russell
#2: John Havlicek (20.7-6.7-4.7)
Others: Sam Jones

1969: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Bill Russell
#2: John Havlicek (21.6-7.0-5.4)
Others: Sam Jones

1970: New York Knicks
Best Player: Willis Reed
#2: Walt Frazier (20.9-6.0-8.2)
Others: Dave DeBusschere

1971: Milwaukee Bucks
Best Player: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
#2: Oscar Robertson (19.4-5.7-8.2)

1972: Los Angeles Lakers
Best Player: Wilt Chamberlain
#2: Jerry West (25.8-4.2-9.7)
Others: Gail Goodrich

1973: New York Knicks
Best Player: Walt Frazier
#2: Earl Monroe (15.5-3.3-3.8)
Others: Dave DeBusschere, Willis Reed, Jerry Lucas

1974: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Dave Cowens
#2: John Havlicek (22.6-6.4-5.9)
Others: Jo Jo White

1975: Golden State Warriors
Best Player: Rick Barry
#2: Jamaal Wilkes (14.2-8.2-2.2)

1976: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Dave Cowens
#2: Jo Jo White (18.9-3.8-5.4)
Others: John Havlicek

1977: Portland Trailblazers
Best Player: Bill Walton
#2: Maurice Lucas (20.6-11.4-2.9)

1978: Washington Bullets
Best Player: Elvin Hayes
#2: Wes Unseld (7.6-11.9-4.1)
Others: Bob Dandridge

1979: Seattle Supersonics
Best Player: Gus Williams
#2: Dennis Johnson (15.9-4.7-3.5)
Others: Jack Sikma

1980: LA Lakers
Best Player: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
#2: Magic Johnson (18.0-7.7-7.3)
Others: Jamaal Wilkes, Norm Nixon

1981: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Larry Bird
#2: Robert Parish (18.9-9.5-1.8)
Others: Cedric Maxwell, Tiny Archibald, Kevin McHale

1982: LA Lakers
Best Player: Magic Johnson
#2: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (23.9-8.7-3.0)
Others: Jamaal Wilkes, Norm Nixon

1983: Philadelphia 76ers
Best Player: Moses Malone
#2: Julius Erving (21.4-6.8-3.7)
Others: Andrew Toney

1984: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Larry Bird
#2: Robert Parish (19.0-10.7-1.7)
Others: Kevin McHale, Dennis Johnson

1985: LA Lakers
Best Player: Magic Johnson
#2: Kareem Abdul Jabbar (22.0-7.9-3.2)
Others: James Worthy, Byron Scott

1986: Boston Celtics
Best Player: Larry Bird
#2: Kevin McHale (21.3-8.1-2.7)
Others: Robert Parish, Dennis Johnson, Bill Walton)

1987: LA Lakers
Best Player: Magic Johnson
#2: James Worthy (19.4-5.7-2.8)
Others: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Byron Scott

1988: LA Lakers
Best Player: Magic Johnson
#2: James Worthy (19.7-5.0-3.9)
Others: Byron Scott, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

1989: Detroit Pistons
Best Player: Isiah Thomas
#2: Joe Dumars (17.2-2.5-5.7)
Others: Dennis Rodman

1990: Detroit Pistons
Best Player: Isiah Thomas
#2: Joe Dumars (17.8-2.8-4.9)
Others: Dennis Rodman

1991: Chicago Bulls
Best Player: Michael Jordan
#2: Scottie Pippen (17.8-7.3-6.2)

1992: Chicago Bulls
Best Player: Michael Jordan
#2: Scottie Pippen (21.0-7.7-7.0)

1993: Chicago Bulls
Best Player: Michael Jordan
#2: Scottie Pippen (18.6-7.7-6.3)

1994: Houston Rockets
Best Player: Hakeem Olajuwon
#2: Otis Thorpe (14.0-10.6-3.6)

1995: Houston Rockets
Best Player: Hakeem Olajuwon
#2: Clyde Drexler (21.4-7.0-4.4)

1996: Chicago Bulls
Best Player: Michael Jordan
#2: Scottie Pippen (19.4-6.4-5.9)
Others: Dennis Rodman

1997: Chicago Bulls
Best Player: Michael Jordan
#2: Scottie Pippen (20.2-6.5-5.7)
Others: Dennis Rodman

1998: Chicago Bulls
Best Player: Michael Jordan
#2: Scottie Pippen (19.1-5.2-5.8)
Others: Dennis Rodman

1999: San Antonio Spurs
Best Player: Tim Duncan
#2: David Robinson (15.8-10.0-2.1)

2000: LA Lakers
Best Player: Shaquille O'Neal
#2: Kobe Bryant (22.5-6.3-4.9)
Others: Glen Rice

2001: LA Lakers
Best Player: Shaquille O'Neal
#2: Kobe Bryant (28.5-5.9-5.0)

2002: LA Lakers
Best Player: Shaquille O'Neal
#2: Kobe Bryant (25.2-5.5-5.5)

2003: San Antonio Spurs
Best Player: Tim Duncan
#2: Tony Parker (15.5-2.6-5.3)
Others: David Robinson

2004: Detroit Pistons
Best Player: Ben Wallace
#2: Chauncey Billups (16.9-3.5-5.7)
Others: Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace

2005: San Antonio Spurs
Best Player: Tim Duncan
#2: Manu Ginobli (16.0-3.4-4.4)
Others: Tony Parker

2006: Miami Heat
Best Player: Dwyane Wade
#2: Shaquille O'Neal (20.0-9.2-1.9)

Soon it will be football day...

My favorite day of the year is the opening Sunday of football. Alas, the Vikes don't even play until Monday at 6:00 central. I'll be teaching from 5:00-8:00 (and it's tough to cancel the first day of class), followed by a half-hour commute home. If the antenna and VCR all work together.... This is roughly the 435th time I've whined about this. I will whine about this roughly 678 more times. Anyway, a few football thoughts.

My favorite "what if": The Miami Dolphins
We all know that when the last undefeated team of each season loses, the '72 Dolphins celebrate. But what would happen if the last team to lose is...the Miami Dolphins! I would LOVE to see the Dolphins start out 10-0 sometime and see what the old-timers do. I can't even begin to describe how excited I am that such an occurance COULD happen.

One of the top 32 starting QBs in the NFL
A peeve: how easily and thoughtlessly people throw out things like "he's one of the top 3 players in the league" or "he's one of the top 5 QBs in the league" and all that without actually giving it some thought. Often, when you do think about the comment briefly, you realize the claim is totally outrageous. Now, Peter King does this ALL THE TIME, but I've also read columns in which he explores, for example, how many QBs he'd take over Drew Brees. That's good. Don't be lazy: if you're going to say "he's a top 3 running back" or whatever, give it some thought and make sure there aren't 3 other RBs you'd take over whoever you're talking about. Otherwise we've got 10 "Top 5" players at any given time.

Vikings
All I can really predict for the 2006 Vikings is this: they will go between 5-11 and 11-5. I'm not sure they have more than 11 wins in them, and I'm pretty sure aren't worse than 5 wins. Nothing in between will suprise me. New coach, new offensive system, new defensive system...I have no idea. All I can do is approach every season hoping this is the one where I'll see the beloved Purple win a Super Bowl.

Anxiety
Every year I dread the possibility of seeing the Packers win a Super Bowl. If I had to witness the Packers win a 13th championship before the Vikes win their first...well, that would be difficult to stomach. Plus I despise Favre. I watch Packer playoff games with as much nervousness as I watch any Viking game. This season, I don't fear the Packers winning the Super Bowl. I do fear Favre throwing his 420th and 421st TD pass. But there's also something to be hopeful for: interception number 277 and 278. During the season, each week I will give a Favre tally at this blog. Favre has 396 TDs and 255 INTs--so he's 24 away from the TD record and 22 from the INT record. Which will he break? Both? Then which first? What sort of odds are we looking at here? And should I just start a separate anti-Favre blog to keep the venom off this one?

Thursday, June 22, 2006

Fun Fantasy Football Rules

Some friends and I have been discussing ways to turn our impending fantasy football draft into a drinking game. Here are some other rules I'd like to suggest.

Person to select Brett Favre: take two pills of Vicodin and throw an interception to my kitten.

People who select Randy McMichael or Ahman Green: since real domestic violence is never funny, you just have to create a straw figure of your significant other, then start fighting.

Person to select Peyton Manning: Start really strong and confident, then start wilting anytime anybody looks at you, and come up short with stupid picks repeatedly as the draft comes to a close.

Person to select Ben Roethlisberger: Ride my bike straight into the garage door.

People who select Seattle Seahawks: It's only draft time, but it's not too early to start blaming the refs because you didn't win the championship.

Person to select Reggie Bush: on your next pick, act like you're going to be making an easy, no-brainer pick, then throw a lateral to a slow player running behind you and pick somebody who sucks.

Person to select Terrell Owens: by rule, you automatically receive Donovan McNabb, but you are obligated to spend the season talking about how much better you'd be with Brett Favre.

First person to make a joke about how you'd like to draft Eli Manning, but you're worried he'll refuse to play for your team: everybody present gets to punch you in the throat or in the crotch. It's the puncher's choice.

Person to select Drew Brees: you must smear something onto your face in the shape of his birthmark.

Person to select Randy Moss: when you've decided to make your pick, sit silently doing nothing. As your time winds down and somebody asks you to hurry up and make a pick, shout, "I pick when I want to pick!" If the commissioner threatens to fine you if you don't get your pick in on time, say "straight cash homey." When you finally do select Moss, pretend to take a crap on the floor and then pretend to wipe your ass on the wall (under no circumstances should you ACTUALLY crap on the floor and wipe your ass on the wall).

Person to select Daunte Culpepper: First, start trying to pick up a drink but repeatedly fumble it. Then try throw out a pick but allow it to be easily intercepted. Then send everybody an email telling them how you feel.

Person to select Mewelde Moore: start making the pick, and then act like you got injured trying to do it.

OK, some real drinking game rules.

First to select a QB: take a drink

First to select a TE: take a drink

First to select a D: take a shot

First to select a K: take a shot

First Homer Pick: take a shot

(this includes drafting players on your favorite NFL team OR alumni from your favorite college team. If I draft a UCLA Bruin, I take a shot. If Justin drafts a Duke Blue Devil...ah, hell, my brother at Bemidji State has a better chance of drafting a Beaver than Justin has of selecting a Blue Devil.)

First Reach Pick: take a shot

First Double Pick: take a double shot and remove one article of clothing

(In a snake draft, trying to draft a player who has already been selected is a cardinal sin.)

We need more suggestions: both of the first variety, and the second.

Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Wade's place in NBA history

Here's the question: how many NBA players have won NBA championships within their first three years AS THE BEST PLAYER ON THEIR TEAMS?

It's a short list.

Bill Russell won in his 1st and 3rd year.
Magic Johnson won in his 1st and 3rd year (Kareem was MVP Magic's rookie year, but Magic was Finals MVP, so for the sake of argument, let's consider Magic the team's best player for these two titles).
Larry Bird won in his 2nd year.
Tim Duncan won in his 2nd year.
Dwayne Wade won in his 3rd year.

So Wade is definitely already an all-timer.

However, let's look closer at these players before making assumptions about the meaning of this in all-time greatness.

Russell joined a Celtic team that featured Bob Cousy and Bill Sharman, both voted in '96 to be among the 50 greatest NBA players ever.

Magic joined a team that featured Kareem Abdul-Jabar, who is a legitimate contender for GREATEST PLAYER EVER status.

Larry Legend won his first title in '81 playing alongside three members of the '96 50 Greatest: Robert Parrish, Kevin McHale, and Tiny Archibald.

Tim Duncan joined an aging but still effective David Robinson.

And Wade was on a team that added an aging but still effective Shaquille O'Neal in his second year.

Certainly this is an impressive list of players. But each joined a team that was already loaded with some talent that could compliment them.

(one other comment on Wilt as the greatest athlete ever: I looked at the back of a card and learned that in the 1961-62 season, Wilt played all but 8 possible minutes of the NBA season. Yet you're not going to hear him mentioned with Cal Ripken, Lance Armstrong, or Brett Favre [who actually doesn't even have the record for most consecutive games played, though he gets all sorts of credit--Jim Marshall had the record until a pointless punter broke it. We don't recognize punters here at Pacifist Viking--all hail Jim Marshall] as the paragons of durability and stamina in American sports lore. He should be).

Saturday, June 17, 2006

Wilt

I believe Wilt Chamberlain is the greatest individual athlete in the history of American team sports--and it's not even close.

Let's look at some of his most amusing numbers. These are taken from various sources, such as the back of a '96 Topps Stars card, NBA at 50 edited by Mark Vancil, http://www.basketball-reference.com, Who's Better Who's Best in Basketball? by Elliot Kalb, and whatever is sitting around in my memory from who knows where.

1. In his entire career, he never once fouled out of a game.

Think about that. Think about the body control such a feat requires, particularly for a center.

2. In one season, he averaged 48.5 minutes per game.

You have to look at that number and think about it for a second. Seriously. A legitimate argument could be made that Wilt has more stamina than any athlete on record. He also has the NBA record for career minutes per game (45.8). You could make the argument that Wilt's rebounding and scoring numbers are inflated because he played in a run-and-gun era that had way more team shots attempted per game. But that also means that Wilt averaged more than a complete game during the run-and-gun era, and he set the record for minutes-per-game in a run-and-gun era. And according to NBA at 50, Wilt also had 47 consecutive COMPLETE GAMES.

3. He's the only NBA player to have led the league in points/game, rebounds/game, and assists/game.

Is this an argument for Wilt as the most versatile basketball player ever?

4. He has the record for points in a game (100) and points per game in a season (50.4).

5. He has the record for rebounds in a game (55), rebounds per game in a season (27.2), and career rebounds per game (22.9).

That 55 came against Russell. He also has the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 7th highest rebounding average seasons (though I actually believe Dennis Rodman is the greatest rebounder ever).

6. He has the highest points per game in a season (50.4), and the second (44.8), and the third (38.4).

The next highest is Elgin Baylor, who averaged 38.3 in 48 games. That means the next best scorer to Wilt (who also played in the same run-and-gun era) has a career high scoring average that is 76% of Wilt's career high, but that Wilt actually has two other seasons better than that. Michael Jordan's highest scoring average in a season was 37.1, which Wilt beat in his rookie year (37.6). Wilt also has more 50 point games than anybody (122 to Jordan's 37, and Wilt once had 45 in one season), 60 pt. games (32-4), and 70 pt. games (6-1).

When I look at these numbers, I cannot help but think he is the greatest basketball player ever. Certainly arguments can be made for Bill Russell (you can't argue with winning, but 11 championships is a team achievement), Jordan (I think the greatest non-center), Magic, Bird (unquestionably the greatest forward), and Kareem (a ridiculous career when you take a hard look at it: 6 MVPs, 6 championships, more points than anybody ever). Maybe you could make an argument for Oscar Robertson, to (he would compete with Magic as the greatest all-around guard).

But Wilt's records in his sport are so far superior to any #2 in his sport, and his ridiculous feats of athleticism and stamina make him the greatest in any sport.