thoughts during this preseason game
In 2006, virtually all Viking fans were critical of Brad Childress's offensive philosophy: dink and dunk, short passes, no aggressiveness, no creativity. What if, for the sake of argument, the 2009 Vikings had the exact same offensive scheme, strategy, and attitude as the Vikings had in 2006. If that were the case, the 2009 Viking offense would be far, far, far superior. The Vikings have undergone a massive, phenomenal upgrade at every conceivable offensive skill position.
The '06 Vikings were quarterbacked by 38 year old Brad Johnson, who at that point had virtually no mobility and very little arm strength. Chester Taylor was the feature back, with Mewelde Moore backing him up and catching a lot of passes. The tight end was Jermaine Wiggins, who had 8.4 yards per catch that year.
It was the WR corps where the real horror show started: the top three wide receivers were Travis Taylor, Marcus Robinson, and Troy Williamson. Sit back. Let that sink in. Do you remember watching the Viking QB try stick passes in to WRs that couldn't separate from a defender at all? Do you remember watching the ball bounce off the hands of the one WR that could get separation? It was a group that really couldn't make plays.
Overall, it was an offense lacking as much in speed, explosiveness, and talent than it was lacking in aggressiveness and creativity.
The '09 Vikings will be quarterbacked by 39-40 year old Brett Favre, clearly past his prime, but who still exhibits skills that make him, even now, the best QB of the Childress era by far. He's showing the mobility, arm strength, and accuracy to be a successful QB. If nothing else, the QB that completed 66.5 and 65.7 percent of his passes the last two seasons might be perfect for a dink and dunk approach throwing to talented, athletic pass catchers (I love screen passes, by the way). The great Adrian Peterson is the feature back, with Chester Taylor moving into the backup and pass catcher role. The tight end is Visanthe Shiancoe, whom I still don't understand or trust, but who has the potential to be a much bigger playmaker than Wiggins.
But it is the WR corps where I start getting excited. The top three wide receivers will likely be Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, and Percy Harvin. These players have speed and explosiveness, talent and the ability to make big plays. They are players that can get open, and they are players that can run fast when they get the ball.
I'm very impressed with the talent upgrade the Viking management has achieved. This Viking offense has the players on the field to be successful.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Big Blizzard
My most recent Viking dream
I won't provide all the details, but basically, I was carried away to another plane of existence where time did not pass for me, but it passed for everybody else. So when I returned after an extended absence, life had moved forward for everybody I knew, and the world was a slightly different place. One of the first things I asked my wife was "Have the Vikings won a Super Bowl yet?" I expected the answer to be no. When she said yes, I started jumping around and hugging her: I was legitimately ecstatic to find out the Vikes had won the Super Bowl. I then asked who the Viking QB was for the Super Bowl winning team. The answer: Sage Rosenfels.
On the Amorality of Games (2)
I earlier argued that since a game is an amoral activity, a pro sports franchise like the Philadelphia Eagles should do pretty much whatever it can (within the rules of the league and game) to win games. In other words, morality is not a pro sports franchise’s concern.
However, I do not mean to say that fans cannot or should not let morality play a role in whom they root for. Some fans might take pleasure in rooting for somebody who shares their values. Some fans might take pleasure in rooting against players that don’t share their politics. That’s all fine. Because I also don’t think there are rules for whom fans are allowed to root for or against (and resent those who claim otherwise), and so you can root for players according to whatever standards you like. The perceived values, morals, politics, and lifestyles of players may make us as fans root for or against individual players.
So if you can’t bring yourself to root for Michael Vick because of his dogfighting activities, that’s fine. Enjoy rooting against him.
Wins and Quarterbacks
First, I find Norman Chad an entertaining, funny writer. Second, I hope Jay Cutler sucks: I'm already slightly terrified of seeing Aaron Rodgers in the division for another decade, and if Cutler is good too, it could be an unpleasant stretch of time for Viking fans.
But Chad uses an incredibly shaky argument to tell us he doesn't think Cutler is really that good:
"No, the Jay Cutler I know had a 17-20 record in three years with the Broncos and an 11-34 record in four years at Vanderbilt. [...] we're looking at a 28-54 record since 2001 and a fella who always talks a good game but always walks into the losers' locker room."
To exclusively cite Cutler's teams' records without providing any context tells us very little about Cutler. Let's pretend a QB has a 100% impact on his team's offensive successes and failures, that any blocking, catching, or running offensively is still credited to the QB. That still leaves defense and special teams, which the QB cannot impact at all. It is so obvious that I wonder I have to write it, but commentators like Chad sometimes write as if they don't know it: quarterbacks don't play defense.
The context? I don't know enough about college football, but I think playing at Vanderbilt, a non-powerhouse in a powerhouse conference, had a big role on Cutler's record. And I won't pretend I know enough about pro football, but I will claim I'm smart enough to look things up. The 2007 Broncos ranked 28th in points allowed and 19th in yards allowed. The 2008 Broncos were even worse defensively, ranking 30th in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed. In the last two years, Cutler played with terrible defenses. In 2007 only four NFL teams gave up more points than the Broncos; in 2008, only two teams allowed more points. The Broncos went 15-17 over those two years. Is it Cutler who deserves the blame for that mediocrity, or the terrible, awful defense? According to Chad, it's Cutler.
I am foolish enough to think that a quarterback's record as starter means something. But not in isolation from any context, and not in isolation from any individual statistics and assessment.
Viking Links
Supposedly Brett Favre's presence opens up the full playbook (Pioneer Press).
"Vikings say they're united behind Favre" (Pioneer Press). My view is that this stuff really doesn't matter much right now. It might in the future, if Favre struggles and/or the Vikings are losing. But right now, it doesn't.
Matt Bowen talks about how the NFL locker room works when a new guy comes in (National Football Post).
Peter King calls Percy Harvin "Impact player beginning opening day" (Sports Illustrated). My expectations are always low for rookie wide receivers, and so I've been pretty moderate in my hopes for Harvin. But a lot of people are talking him up as an immediate playmaker.
"Vikings Tyrell Johnson eager to prove he can replace Darren Sharper" (Pioneer Press). I hope he replaces the '05-'07 version of Sharper; I didn't think Sharper was very good at all in 2008. But neither, really, was Johnson.
As a blogger, I sometimes think out in my head what I'll write if certain sports situations occur (and in life I tend to plan out, in specific detail, what I would say if particular situations occur, but that's another issue entirely: I'm neurotic). At Defensive Indifference, Jason goes ahead and writes out his reactions to Favre's performance on Monday.
Other Football Links
Steven Jackson (Yahoo!). I'm very excited about Jackson as a fantasy player this year. Everything I ever see about Jackson increases that excitement, and nothing has yet decreased it.
Don Banks writes about the amazing success of the top three quarterbacks of the 2004 class (Sports Illustrated). But if the measurement is team success (that's Banks' primary focus), one thing should be kept in mind about the top three QBs of the 1983 class. Dan Marino, John Elway, and Jim Kelly spent their careers in the same conference, and from '84-'98, the three started in 10 Super Bowls. That's crazy. Only one of them could go to the Super Bowl each year, and one of them did two out of every three years.
Edgerrin James (Yahoo!, via PFT).
At Rotoworld, an interesting interview with Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (via Football Outsiders. Do I really need to give a hat tip to FO for a FO interview elsewhere? Probably not, but I'm neurotic).
At ESPN, Matthew Berry provides useful fantasy facts. I like Berry's fantasy football writing, and find this sort of column particularly interesting.
I won't provide all the details, but basically, I was carried away to another plane of existence where time did not pass for me, but it passed for everybody else. So when I returned after an extended absence, life had moved forward for everybody I knew, and the world was a slightly different place. One of the first things I asked my wife was "Have the Vikings won a Super Bowl yet?" I expected the answer to be no. When she said yes, I started jumping around and hugging her: I was legitimately ecstatic to find out the Vikes had won the Super Bowl. I then asked who the Viking QB was for the Super Bowl winning team. The answer: Sage Rosenfels.
On the Amorality of Games (2)
I earlier argued that since a game is an amoral activity, a pro sports franchise like the Philadelphia Eagles should do pretty much whatever it can (within the rules of the league and game) to win games. In other words, morality is not a pro sports franchise’s concern.
However, I do not mean to say that fans cannot or should not let morality play a role in whom they root for. Some fans might take pleasure in rooting for somebody who shares their values. Some fans might take pleasure in rooting against players that don’t share their politics. That’s all fine. Because I also don’t think there are rules for whom fans are allowed to root for or against (and resent those who claim otherwise), and so you can root for players according to whatever standards you like. The perceived values, morals, politics, and lifestyles of players may make us as fans root for or against individual players.
So if you can’t bring yourself to root for Michael Vick because of his dogfighting activities, that’s fine. Enjoy rooting against him.
Wins and Quarterbacks
First, I find Norman Chad an entertaining, funny writer. Second, I hope Jay Cutler sucks: I'm already slightly terrified of seeing Aaron Rodgers in the division for another decade, and if Cutler is good too, it could be an unpleasant stretch of time for Viking fans.
But Chad uses an incredibly shaky argument to tell us he doesn't think Cutler is really that good:
"No, the Jay Cutler I know had a 17-20 record in three years with the Broncos and an 11-34 record in four years at Vanderbilt. [...] we're looking at a 28-54 record since 2001 and a fella who always talks a good game but always walks into the losers' locker room."
To exclusively cite Cutler's teams' records without providing any context tells us very little about Cutler. Let's pretend a QB has a 100% impact on his team's offensive successes and failures, that any blocking, catching, or running offensively is still credited to the QB. That still leaves defense and special teams, which the QB cannot impact at all. It is so obvious that I wonder I have to write it, but commentators like Chad sometimes write as if they don't know it: quarterbacks don't play defense.
The context? I don't know enough about college football, but I think playing at Vanderbilt, a non-powerhouse in a powerhouse conference, had a big role on Cutler's record. And I won't pretend I know enough about pro football, but I will claim I'm smart enough to look things up. The 2007 Broncos ranked 28th in points allowed and 19th in yards allowed. The 2008 Broncos were even worse defensively, ranking 30th in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed. In the last two years, Cutler played with terrible defenses. In 2007 only four NFL teams gave up more points than the Broncos; in 2008, only two teams allowed more points. The Broncos went 15-17 over those two years. Is it Cutler who deserves the blame for that mediocrity, or the terrible, awful defense? According to Chad, it's Cutler.
I am foolish enough to think that a quarterback's record as starter means something. But not in isolation from any context, and not in isolation from any individual statistics and assessment.
Viking Links
Supposedly Brett Favre's presence opens up the full playbook (Pioneer Press).
"Vikings say they're united behind Favre" (Pioneer Press). My view is that this stuff really doesn't matter much right now. It might in the future, if Favre struggles and/or the Vikings are losing. But right now, it doesn't.
Matt Bowen talks about how the NFL locker room works when a new guy comes in (National Football Post).
Peter King calls Percy Harvin "Impact player beginning opening day" (Sports Illustrated). My expectations are always low for rookie wide receivers, and so I've been pretty moderate in my hopes for Harvin. But a lot of people are talking him up as an immediate playmaker.
"Vikings Tyrell Johnson eager to prove he can replace Darren Sharper" (Pioneer Press). I hope he replaces the '05-'07 version of Sharper; I didn't think Sharper was very good at all in 2008. But neither, really, was Johnson.
As a blogger, I sometimes think out in my head what I'll write if certain sports situations occur (and in life I tend to plan out, in specific detail, what I would say if particular situations occur, but that's another issue entirely: I'm neurotic). At Defensive Indifference, Jason goes ahead and writes out his reactions to Favre's performance on Monday.
Other Football Links
Steven Jackson (Yahoo!). I'm very excited about Jackson as a fantasy player this year. Everything I ever see about Jackson increases that excitement, and nothing has yet decreased it.
Don Banks writes about the amazing success of the top three quarterbacks of the 2004 class (Sports Illustrated). But if the measurement is team success (that's Banks' primary focus), one thing should be kept in mind about the top three QBs of the 1983 class. Dan Marino, John Elway, and Jim Kelly spent their careers in the same conference, and from '84-'98, the three started in 10 Super Bowls. That's crazy. Only one of them could go to the Super Bowl each year, and one of them did two out of every three years.
Edgerrin James (Yahoo!, via PFT).
At Rotoworld, an interesting interview with Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (via Football Outsiders. Do I really need to give a hat tip to FO for a FO interview elsewhere? Probably not, but I'm neurotic).
At ESPN, Matthew Berry provides useful fantasy facts. I like Berry's fantasy football writing, and find this sort of column particularly interesting.
Looking at Box Scores
The new box scores at the NFL.com Scores page are, in my opinion, difficult to read. The game stats and individual stats are not immediately separate and discernible without looking closely. I like to start looking at a box score with the individual stats or the scoring summary (the latter is still separate and distinguishable). At NFL.com's box scores, if you want to see the individual stats, you have to slowly scan down and find your place (see this one). A typical Sunday means looking at 10+ box scores, and little annoyances to add difficulty and time is troublesome. A box score should clearly separate and distinguish the individual stats section from the team/game stats section.
For a much cleaner, crisper box score, see the same box score at SI.com. Individual stats for both teams are clear and readable, and a little below that is the scoring summary in the middle, and below that clearly readable game summary stats. SI.com's box scores are problematic too, however. The middle of the top of the box score is taken up with a game blog (pointless), fan comments (pointless), and an advertisement (understandable, but right in the middle?). This pushes down the relevant, meaningful parts of the box score further down in scrolling. When reading a box score, you shouldn't have to scroll past meaningless fluff directly in the middle of the box score just to get to the relevant stats.
Both NFL.com and SI.com have a similar problem making it difficult to navigate multiple box scores. When you are reading a box score, you will see the rest of the league's scores at the top. Clicking on a score link will bring you not to that game's box score, but to that game's recap. This requires one extra click to get to another box score: I do not see a cleaner way to scan from box score to box score on these sites. Doesn't it make sense that if I'm reading a box score, if I click on a link for another game the thing I'm interested in seeing is the box score?
The box scores at Yahoo!'s scoreboard are solid. It's not the most aesthetically pleasing box score, but the major categories are easily distinguishable with block headings, each line of the box score is clearly readable because of the alternating grey and white (providing clean, readable "lines"), and clicking on the links to other game data on the right immediately brings you to that game's box score.
However, it is ESPN.com's scoreboard that is probably perfect for what I'm looking for. In the box score, the scoring summary and game summary are next to each other, but clearly distinguishable, with individual stats below. The stats are incredibly easy to read, as each number gets its own square, and the lines are alternating gray and white. Clicking on the links on the side brings you to that game's box score. I think ESPN.com has the cleanest, most readable, most user-friendly box score: it is exactly what I'm looking for.
I'm turning to ESPN for after-the-fact box score use. I'll still try NFL.com to follow events in multiple games while they are still occuring, but I might shift that, too, if it becomes problematic or if I find a superior site.
Are there other sites you prefer for reading box scores, or for following games live? What are they, and why are they preferable?
For a much cleaner, crisper box score, see the same box score at SI.com. Individual stats for both teams are clear and readable, and a little below that is the scoring summary in the middle, and below that clearly readable game summary stats. SI.com's box scores are problematic too, however. The middle of the top of the box score is taken up with a game blog (pointless), fan comments (pointless), and an advertisement (understandable, but right in the middle?). This pushes down the relevant, meaningful parts of the box score further down in scrolling. When reading a box score, you shouldn't have to scroll past meaningless fluff directly in the middle of the box score just to get to the relevant stats.
Both NFL.com and SI.com have a similar problem making it difficult to navigate multiple box scores. When you are reading a box score, you will see the rest of the league's scores at the top. Clicking on a score link will bring you not to that game's box score, but to that game's recap. This requires one extra click to get to another box score: I do not see a cleaner way to scan from box score to box score on these sites. Doesn't it make sense that if I'm reading a box score, if I click on a link for another game the thing I'm interested in seeing is the box score?
The box scores at Yahoo!'s scoreboard are solid. It's not the most aesthetically pleasing box score, but the major categories are easily distinguishable with block headings, each line of the box score is clearly readable because of the alternating grey and white (providing clean, readable "lines"), and clicking on the links to other game data on the right immediately brings you to that game's box score.
However, it is ESPN.com's scoreboard that is probably perfect for what I'm looking for. In the box score, the scoring summary and game summary are next to each other, but clearly distinguishable, with individual stats below. The stats are incredibly easy to read, as each number gets its own square, and the lines are alternating gray and white. Clicking on the links on the side brings you to that game's box score. I think ESPN.com has the cleanest, most readable, most user-friendly box score: it is exactly what I'm looking for.
I'm turning to ESPN for after-the-fact box score use. I'll still try NFL.com to follow events in multiple games while they are still occuring, but I might shift that, too, if it becomes problematic or if I find a superior site.
Are there other sites you prefer for reading box scores, or for following games live? What are they, and why are they preferable?
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Fantasy Football Trading
In "Status Quo Anxiety" in The New Yorker, James Surowiecki discusses a concept familiar to economists and frustrated garage sale shoppers:
"the so-called 'endowment effect': the mere fact that you own something leads you to overvalue it."
Surowiecki summarizes two experiments demonstrating the endowment effect. In one experiment, students who were given a cup were asked how much they'd be willing to sell it for, and students without the cup were asked how much they'd be willing to pay for it. According to Surowiecki, "the new owners of the mugs demanded more than twice as much as the buyers were willing to pay." In another study, people who won tickets were asked how much they'd be willing to sell them for, and people who didn't win tickets were asked how much they'd be willing to pay for them; "those who had, by pure luck, won the tickets thought the ducats were fourteen times as valuable as those that didn't."
What does this mean for us fantasy football junkies? It means you probably value the players on your roster more than other managers in your league value the players on your roster. It's one reason I avoid making trades before the NFL season starts. After week one, player value starts fluctuating, backups on your bench emerge as valuable commodities, and you discover your team's position needs. But between the end of the draft and the beginning of the season, I usually just sit on my drafted roster.
"the so-called 'endowment effect': the mere fact that you own something leads you to overvalue it."
Surowiecki summarizes two experiments demonstrating the endowment effect. In one experiment, students who were given a cup were asked how much they'd be willing to sell it for, and students without the cup were asked how much they'd be willing to pay for it. According to Surowiecki, "the new owners of the mugs demanded more than twice as much as the buyers were willing to pay." In another study, people who won tickets were asked how much they'd be willing to sell them for, and people who didn't win tickets were asked how much they'd be willing to pay for them; "those who had, by pure luck, won the tickets thought the ducats were fourteen times as valuable as those that didn't."
What does this mean for us fantasy football junkies? It means you probably value the players on your roster more than other managers in your league value the players on your roster. It's one reason I avoid making trades before the NFL season starts. After week one, player value starts fluctuating, backups on your bench emerge as valuable commodities, and you discover your team's position needs. But between the end of the draft and the beginning of the season, I usually just sit on my drafted roster.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
When a Superstar "Missing Piece" Quarterback gets traded to the Vikings
Fran Tarkenton and Alan Page are the only two Viking players to win NFL MVP. They played in three Super Bowls together. But in Tarkenton (1976), by Fran Tarketon and Jim Klobuchar, Klobuchar suggests that when the much-hyped and heroically welcomed Tarkenton was traded back to the Vikings, there was some resentment:
"Page had no such Arthurian outlook. He reacted to the Tarkenton trade with a skeptical shrug and a cryptic fatalism, attitudes purely Page. The Minnesota Vikings, he contended, didn't need a savior" (153).
"In the ensuing years, Page and Tarkenton would be civil and respectful toward each other as teammates and as colleagues in the superstar fraternity. Yet in their coexistence on the same football team, they represented--in ways largely unknown to the fan who admired both--archetypes who symbolized opposite and conflicting forces in the pro football society of their time" (154).
"Page had no such Arthurian outlook. He reacted to the Tarkenton trade with a skeptical shrug and a cryptic fatalism, attitudes purely Page. The Minnesota Vikings, he contended, didn't need a savior" (153).
"In the ensuing years, Page and Tarkenton would be civil and respectful toward each other as teammates and as colleagues in the superstar fraternity. Yet in their coexistence on the same football team, they represented--in ways largely unknown to the fan who admired both--archetypes who symbolized opposite and conflicting forces in the pro football society of their time" (154).
Chemistry Schmemistry
My theories:
Good locker room relationships can carry a team through a losing streak, unforeseen setbacks, and other rough patches; bad locker room relationships can divebomb a team's season to misery if things start going bad independent of those locker room relationships (like losing).
But:
Talent trumps positive locker room relationships. By a lot.
Negative locker room relationships should have little impact for on-the-field execution of professionals.
Winning more often begets positive locker room relationships than the other way around.
But I could be wrong.
I'll add that in the playoff game against the Eagles last season, players on the Viking defense held the Eagle offense to no touchdowns through the first three and a half quarters, while watching Tarvaris Jackson struggle mightily as the Viking offense squandered away any chance of winning the game. I'm just saying.
Good locker room relationships can carry a team through a losing streak, unforeseen setbacks, and other rough patches; bad locker room relationships can divebomb a team's season to misery if things start going bad independent of those locker room relationships (like losing).
But:
Talent trumps positive locker room relationships. By a lot.
Negative locker room relationships should have little impact for on-the-field execution of professionals.
Winning more often begets positive locker room relationships than the other way around.
But I could be wrong.
I'll add that in the playoff game against the Eagles last season, players on the Viking defense held the Eagle offense to no touchdowns through the first three and a half quarters, while watching Tarvaris Jackson struggle mightily as the Viking offense squandered away any chance of winning the game. I'm just saying.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Viking Blizzard
In August, I start dreaming about the Vikings all the time. Last night I dreamed I was at their first game, and they won by seven thanks to two defensive touchdowns, including a fumble recovery during a tie game with no time left (but Brett Favre was on the opposing team).
The Viking Secondary
I like the Viking pass defense. A pass rush keyed by Jared Allen puts pressure on passers and helps the secondary a lot. The return of E.J. Henderson (who has looked great in preseason, in my opinion) is going to help the pass defense against short and mid-range passes to RBs and TEs (the Vikes were frequently vulnerable to these types of passes last season). But I'm still a little concerned about the Viking safeties.
Madieu Williams should be a fine safety; I just want to see more of him. But we really need to see second-year safety Tyrell Johnson step up. With so many great run defenders in the front seven, the Viking safeties should be able to focus most of their attention on pass defense. I'm worried that pass completions deep down the middle will be a weakness to this Viking defense.
Anybody else concerned about the Viking secondary? The only DB I really feel confident in is Antoine Winfield.
Viking Links
Sean Jensen of the Pioneer Press writes that Brad Childress is limiting Brett Favre's throws in practice (via Pro Football Talk). I have two concerns about Brett Favre in January: 1) that he'll be worn down and ineffective and 2) that in a close playoff game he'll get erratic and throw some devastating, game-losing interception. Seeing the Vikes take steps to mediate my first fear helps. To assuage my second fear, I've been telling myself that a great defense and running game will build up strong leads and Favre won't be called on to make an erratic game-losing interception.
Favre will be playing a lot in the next preseason game (ESPN).
Bernard Berrian (Pro Football Weekly).
Percy Harvin (Yahoo!).
Adrian Peterson (FOX).
The Viking Secondary
I like the Viking pass defense. A pass rush keyed by Jared Allen puts pressure on passers and helps the secondary a lot. The return of E.J. Henderson (who has looked great in preseason, in my opinion) is going to help the pass defense against short and mid-range passes to RBs and TEs (the Vikes were frequently vulnerable to these types of passes last season). But I'm still a little concerned about the Viking safeties.
Madieu Williams should be a fine safety; I just want to see more of him. But we really need to see second-year safety Tyrell Johnson step up. With so many great run defenders in the front seven, the Viking safeties should be able to focus most of their attention on pass defense. I'm worried that pass completions deep down the middle will be a weakness to this Viking defense.
Anybody else concerned about the Viking secondary? The only DB I really feel confident in is Antoine Winfield.
Viking Links
Sean Jensen of the Pioneer Press writes that Brad Childress is limiting Brett Favre's throws in practice (via Pro Football Talk). I have two concerns about Brett Favre in January: 1) that he'll be worn down and ineffective and 2) that in a close playoff game he'll get erratic and throw some devastating, game-losing interception. Seeing the Vikes take steps to mediate my first fear helps. To assuage my second fear, I've been telling myself that a great defense and running game will build up strong leads and Favre won't be called on to make an erratic game-losing interception.
Favre will be playing a lot in the next preseason game (ESPN).
Bernard Berrian (Pro Football Weekly).
Percy Harvin (Yahoo!).
Adrian Peterson (FOX).
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Weekend Blizzard: fantasy, and other stupid things
My recent Viking dream
Last night I dreamed I was going to my wife's parenting group. The actor J.K. Simmons was standing at a white board, and he was talking about the Minnesota Vikings. He had Brett Favre's name, and under it Adrian Peterson's name. He pointed his marker at the AP and Favre, saying that AP's success was going to depend largely on what Favre is able to do. Is this the weirdest dream I've ever had about the Vikings? Absolutely not.
Fantasy: the value of elite tight ends
I think the elite TEs (top tier Antonio Gates and Jason Witten, and I'd put Dallas Clark and Tony Gonzalez just behind) are more valuable in an auction draft than a snake draft. In a snake draft, you probably have to pass on a starting RB, WR, or QB to draft Gates or Witten. Not so in an auction league: you can budget your money for an elite TE, and still get quality starters at other positions.
But what do I know: this year I've drafted Gates in an auction league and snake draft.
In fantasy preparation, I give much greater weight to a player's past yards than past touchdowns, because I think the yards are a better indicator of future value. But I still found Brandon Funston's argument for Gates over Witten utterly compelling: "Witten 's best TD campaign (7 in '07) is lower than Gates' worst TD campaign in the past five years (8 in '08)."
My worst fantasy football draft story
I printed up my own (color-coded) documents for the Hazelweird Auction Draft, which was two weeks ago. This weekend I was preparing for the Kloss Memorial League Snake Draft, and I was looking over the documents from the earlier draft. Even though I had names crossed off on the documents, I thought, "Ah, I can read this; I don't need to re-print these." During the draft, things were going fine. In the eighth round I really didn't like anybody for the value, and decided to just go with a solid backup RB, Pierre Thomas. The next pick: Steve Slaton.
Steve Slaton is my #4 ranked fantasy RB. Earlier in the day, I had been at the card store Beyond Shinders and looked right at two Steve Slaton rookie cards. For some reason, nobody else in the league bothered with him until round eight. And for some reason, I straight up forgot the man existed. Every time I would scan through my draft document, my mind would somehow skip past the fourth crossed off name on my running back rankings.
This is my worst fantasy draft story.
Viking links
Sports Illustrated's Ross Tucker objects to the Favre signing for a similar reason I've objected to it:
"I don't think the Vikings are a one-and-done team. All of their best players, like Antoine Winfield, Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen, are under contract for the foreseeable future. The window is wide open. Why not try to build with Jackson or Rosenfels and give it a legit shot over the next three years? Doesn't seem as likely now, that is for sure."
Is signing Favre a good football move for 2009? It might be. Is it a good football move for 2010 and beyond? Almost certainly not.
Grant's Tomb writes about why the Vikings are now the most interesting team in the world.
Is going to talk to random Packer fans about their feelings the easiest column to write these days? Jim Souhan takes his whirl at it.
Other links
I have to give credit to Cold, Hard Football Facts: they've evidently let a critical reader, Mark Wald, write critical things about CHFF on their website, including this Cold Hard Football Facts Playbook (pdf), where Wald dissects some of the flawed argumentative tropes CHFF often uses. Let me not get too carried away with my praise: it is fucking brilliant. I love seeing arguments featuring logical fallacies debunked (I wrote my own lengthy post examining CHFF's problems with correlation and causation), and Wald does a freaking brilliant job.
Last night I dreamed I was going to my wife's parenting group. The actor J.K. Simmons was standing at a white board, and he was talking about the Minnesota Vikings. He had Brett Favre's name, and under it Adrian Peterson's name. He pointed his marker at the AP and Favre, saying that AP's success was going to depend largely on what Favre is able to do. Is this the weirdest dream I've ever had about the Vikings? Absolutely not.
Fantasy: the value of elite tight ends
I think the elite TEs (top tier Antonio Gates and Jason Witten, and I'd put Dallas Clark and Tony Gonzalez just behind) are more valuable in an auction draft than a snake draft. In a snake draft, you probably have to pass on a starting RB, WR, or QB to draft Gates or Witten. Not so in an auction league: you can budget your money for an elite TE, and still get quality starters at other positions.
But what do I know: this year I've drafted Gates in an auction league and snake draft.
In fantasy preparation, I give much greater weight to a player's past yards than past touchdowns, because I think the yards are a better indicator of future value. But I still found Brandon Funston's argument for Gates over Witten utterly compelling: "Witten 's best TD campaign (7 in '07) is lower than Gates' worst TD campaign in the past five years (8 in '08)."
My worst fantasy football draft story
I printed up my own (color-coded) documents for the Hazelweird Auction Draft, which was two weeks ago. This weekend I was preparing for the Kloss Memorial League Snake Draft, and I was looking over the documents from the earlier draft. Even though I had names crossed off on the documents, I thought, "Ah, I can read this; I don't need to re-print these." During the draft, things were going fine. In the eighth round I really didn't like anybody for the value, and decided to just go with a solid backup RB, Pierre Thomas. The next pick: Steve Slaton.
Steve Slaton is my #4 ranked fantasy RB. Earlier in the day, I had been at the card store Beyond Shinders and looked right at two Steve Slaton rookie cards. For some reason, nobody else in the league bothered with him until round eight. And for some reason, I straight up forgot the man existed. Every time I would scan through my draft document, my mind would somehow skip past the fourth crossed off name on my running back rankings.
This is my worst fantasy draft story.
Viking links
Sports Illustrated's Ross Tucker objects to the Favre signing for a similar reason I've objected to it:
"I don't think the Vikings are a one-and-done team. All of their best players, like Antoine Winfield, Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen, are under contract for the foreseeable future. The window is wide open. Why not try to build with Jackson or Rosenfels and give it a legit shot over the next three years? Doesn't seem as likely now, that is for sure."
Is signing Favre a good football move for 2009? It might be. Is it a good football move for 2010 and beyond? Almost certainly not.
Grant's Tomb writes about why the Vikings are now the most interesting team in the world.
Is going to talk to random Packer fans about their feelings the easiest column to write these days? Jim Souhan takes his whirl at it.
Other links
I have to give credit to Cold, Hard Football Facts: they've evidently let a critical reader, Mark Wald, write critical things about CHFF on their website, including this Cold Hard Football Facts Playbook (pdf), where Wald dissects some of the flawed argumentative tropes CHFF often uses. Let me not get too carried away with my praise: it is fucking brilliant. I love seeing arguments featuring logical fallacies debunked (I wrote my own lengthy post examining CHFF's problems with correlation and causation), and Wald does a freaking brilliant job.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Contagious
I was walking around the Mall of America this afternoon. I think a lot of people going to tonight's preseason game made a day of it and went to the MOA: there were many groups of people all decked out in purple, with lots and lots of jerseys. There were Favre jerseys and t-shirts. Viking #4 jerseys line the windows in several stores. The Viking Locker Room had bins of them, and the place looked really busy.
What I'm trying to say is that in Minnesota, the enthusiasm is palpable. When you walk past people donning their purple, when you see the Favre jerseys everywhere, it's hard not to join along and start believing in it.
To be clear
Paul Allen and Paul Charchian briefly discussed this blog on KFAN today, and may have interpreted me as a Favre hater, unhappy that he's a Viking. I think I should clarify my stance.
I did not want Favre to become a Viking for specific, concrete football reasons. I was annoyed that the Vikings want to go with another one-year fix, pushing the longer-term quarterback question back another season. I have concerns about Favre's age, recent tendency to wear down at the end of the season, his playoff resume in the last decade or so, and his tendency to throw a lot of interceptions.
However, I'm a die-hard Viking fan, and all along I knew that if Favre joined the Vikings, I would root hard for the team, and root hard for Favre. Now that he's a Viking, I'm fully on board: in part because people like Paul Charchian have talked me into it, I've started believing this Viking team can win the Super Bowl. I'm an optimisitic Viking rube: I've pushed my reservations to the background, and I'm excited--even ecstatic--to watch the Vikings this season.
What I'm trying to say is that in Minnesota, the enthusiasm is palpable. When you walk past people donning their purple, when you see the Favre jerseys everywhere, it's hard not to join along and start believing in it.
To be clear
Paul Allen and Paul Charchian briefly discussed this blog on KFAN today, and may have interpreted me as a Favre hater, unhappy that he's a Viking. I think I should clarify my stance.
I did not want Favre to become a Viking for specific, concrete football reasons. I was annoyed that the Vikings want to go with another one-year fix, pushing the longer-term quarterback question back another season. I have concerns about Favre's age, recent tendency to wear down at the end of the season, his playoff resume in the last decade or so, and his tendency to throw a lot of interceptions.
However, I'm a die-hard Viking fan, and all along I knew that if Favre joined the Vikings, I would root hard for the team, and root hard for Favre. Now that he's a Viking, I'm fully on board: in part because people like Paul Charchian have talked me into it, I've started believing this Viking team can win the Super Bowl. I'm an optimisitic Viking rube: I've pushed my reservations to the background, and I'm excited--even ecstatic--to watch the Vikings this season.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Who is the most important Viking?
John Lopez of Sports Illustrated identifies Adrian Peterson as the player the Vikings can least afford to lose:
"But what happens if Peterson goes down? Devastation to all Vikes hopes. That's what happens."
Adrian Peterson is an excellent running back. I do not believe, however, that he is indispensable to the Vikings, and I do not believe he's the most important player on the team.
It is easy to think Peterson is indispensable, since he is the team's best offensive player and arguably the team's best player. The Vikings win by running the ball, and Peterson is the dominant RB for the team. But the Vikings do have a very good backup in Chester Taylor. In 2007, when Adrian Peterson missed two games with injury, the Vikes went 2-0 as Taylor had 291 total yards and 4 touchdowns. In his career, Taylor has 4.3 rushing yards per attempt, and he's also an effective receiver (three seasons with 40+ receptions). He's more explosive than he's often given credit for: in 2006 he had a 95 yard run, and in 2007 he had an 84 yard run. Taylor is not a great RB, but he is a good RB.
I certainly think Adrian Peterson makes the Vikings much better, and in the past two years we've seen him simply take over football games on several occasions. But if Adrian Peterson were to get injured, the Vikings still have a dominant defensive line, a good overall defense, a giant offensive line, and some talented and fast skill position players. They'd still be a very talented, very good football team.
Am I wrong? Do you think Adrian Peterson is, in fact, the most critical player on the Vikings, the one player they can't succeed without? I'd like to nominate some other candidates:
Antoine Winfield
He's a great run-stopping cornerback, and by far the best pass defender in the secondary. Without Winfield, I think the the secondary starts to look vulnerable. Maybe awful.
Jared Allen
Allen single-handedly gives the Vikings a fearsome pass rush, which can transform the Viking defense from good to dominant.
Kevin Williams
I'm not sure there's a more dominant player on the Vikings. His quickness and power makes him a disruptive force against the run and the pass.
"But what happens if Peterson goes down? Devastation to all Vikes hopes. That's what happens."
Adrian Peterson is an excellent running back. I do not believe, however, that he is indispensable to the Vikings, and I do not believe he's the most important player on the team.
It is easy to think Peterson is indispensable, since he is the team's best offensive player and arguably the team's best player. The Vikings win by running the ball, and Peterson is the dominant RB for the team. But the Vikings do have a very good backup in Chester Taylor. In 2007, when Adrian Peterson missed two games with injury, the Vikes went 2-0 as Taylor had 291 total yards and 4 touchdowns. In his career, Taylor has 4.3 rushing yards per attempt, and he's also an effective receiver (three seasons with 40+ receptions). He's more explosive than he's often given credit for: in 2006 he had a 95 yard run, and in 2007 he had an 84 yard run. Taylor is not a great RB, but he is a good RB.
I certainly think Adrian Peterson makes the Vikings much better, and in the past two years we've seen him simply take over football games on several occasions. But if Adrian Peterson were to get injured, the Vikings still have a dominant defensive line, a good overall defense, a giant offensive line, and some talented and fast skill position players. They'd still be a very talented, very good football team.
Am I wrong? Do you think Adrian Peterson is, in fact, the most critical player on the Vikings, the one player they can't succeed without? I'd like to nominate some other candidates:
Antoine Winfield
He's a great run-stopping cornerback, and by far the best pass defender in the secondary. Without Winfield, I think the the secondary starts to look vulnerable. Maybe awful.
Jared Allen
Allen single-handedly gives the Vikings a fearsome pass rush, which can transform the Viking defense from good to dominant.
Kevin Williams
I'm not sure there's a more dominant player on the Vikings. His quickness and power makes him a disruptive force against the run and the pass.
Preseason is fun.
At least when Chad Ochocinco is involved. Go to the NFL.com Bengals-Patriots Game Center to see Ochocinco kick an extra point and kick off.
By the way, it is terrific that NFL.com puts video of game highlights on their web page; that's a really nice feature throughout the season.
By the way, it is terrific that NFL.com puts video of game highlights on their web page; that's a really nice feature throughout the season.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Another Blizzard
In a post at pro-football-reference.com regarding Dick Butkus, Chase Stuart does a nice job showing the problem of assessing an individual player by his team's numbers.
At Advanced Football Stats, Brian Burke shows the increased use of tight ends in the NFL.
When many writers discuss negative impacts on the team chemistry of professional sports teams, I'm skeptical. When a former player like Ross Tucker talks about it, and doesn't talk abstractly but very specifically, I listen. See his take on Favre at Sports Illustrated.
Football Outsiders now has DVOA data for the 1994 season (probably my favorite all-around NFL season of all-time).
At Rotoworld Gregg Rosenthal writes about the fantasy prospects of Brett Favre and other Vikings.
A pleasant Star Tribune headline: "Favre impresses receivers with zip on passes." When I talk about arm strength, I think not of how far a QB can throw, but how hard. The latter is, I think, far more relevant to successful QB play.
At Advanced Football Stats, Brian Burke shows the increased use of tight ends in the NFL.
When many writers discuss negative impacts on the team chemistry of professional sports teams, I'm skeptical. When a former player like Ross Tucker talks about it, and doesn't talk abstractly but very specifically, I listen. See his take on Favre at Sports Illustrated.
Football Outsiders now has DVOA data for the 1994 season (probably my favorite all-around NFL season of all-time).
At Rotoworld Gregg Rosenthal writes about the fantasy prospects of Brett Favre and other Vikings.
A pleasant Star Tribune headline: "Favre impresses receivers with zip on passes." When I talk about arm strength, I think not of how far a QB can throw, but how hard. The latter is, I think, far more relevant to successful QB play.
Peter Singer on Michael Vick
Daniel Rubin of the Philadelphia Inquirer talks to Peter Singer about Michael Vick, treatment of animals, apologies and redemption (via the NY Times).
Blizzard
I found out that, as I expected, my Viking fandom overrides everything else. I no longer like seeing articles critical of Favre. I seek out and enjoy positive reviews of how Favre will impact the Vikings. I'm in full optimism mode once again, view Favre primarily as my favorite team's starting quarterback, and I'm setting myself up for heartbreak once again.
Minnesota Links
Stephen Oh of AccuScore shares projections for Favre and the Vikings at Yahoo!: The Vikes with a 75% chance of making the playoffs, and Favre at 65.3% passing for 23 TDs and 16 INTs.
Kevin Seifert at ESPN writes that the Vikes are his favorite to win an improved NFC North. He points out an interesting and relevant fact:
"During the past two seasons, Vikings quarterbacks compiled the NFL's second-worst passer rating in division games."
David Brauer at MinnPost talks about how WCCO got and broke the Favre story.
Readers of this blog know that I had talked myself into Sage Rosenfels. However, evidently after watching his quarterbacks every day throughout training camp, Brad Childress could not. Steve Aschburner at MinnPost:
"...people should know that it all came together from Monday afternoon to this morning. Childress called Favre to 'verify' that Favre’s decision from three weeks earlier was his final decision. Their casual phone chat turned urgent pretty quick."
And Matt Bowen at National Football Post:
"It’s obvious that Rosenfels and Jackson did not do enough in the eyes of Childress and his staff to prevent the team from reaching out to Favre again — because we have to believe that this is how it all went down. Because if they were lighting it up during practice, making plays all over the place, there wouldn’t be a reason to go back to the well again and resurrect Favre from the football grave."
Pat Reusse at the Star Tribune and Charles Robinson and Yahoo! talk about Packer fans feeling less than happy.
Other
Matthew Berry at ESPN makes his bold fantasy predictions.
Chase Stuart at the pro-football-reference.com blog on Daryl Lamonica as the best Oakland Raider QB ever.
Minnesota Links
Stephen Oh of AccuScore shares projections for Favre and the Vikings at Yahoo!: The Vikes with a 75% chance of making the playoffs, and Favre at 65.3% passing for 23 TDs and 16 INTs.
Kevin Seifert at ESPN writes that the Vikes are his favorite to win an improved NFC North. He points out an interesting and relevant fact:
"During the past two seasons, Vikings quarterbacks compiled the NFL's second-worst passer rating in division games."
David Brauer at MinnPost talks about how WCCO got and broke the Favre story.
Readers of this blog know that I had talked myself into Sage Rosenfels. However, evidently after watching his quarterbacks every day throughout training camp, Brad Childress could not. Steve Aschburner at MinnPost:
"...people should know that it all came together from Monday afternoon to this morning. Childress called Favre to 'verify' that Favre’s decision from three weeks earlier was his final decision. Their casual phone chat turned urgent pretty quick."
And Matt Bowen at National Football Post:
"It’s obvious that Rosenfels and Jackson did not do enough in the eyes of Childress and his staff to prevent the team from reaching out to Favre again — because we have to believe that this is how it all went down. Because if they were lighting it up during practice, making plays all over the place, there wouldn’t be a reason to go back to the well again and resurrect Favre from the football grave."
Pat Reusse at the Star Tribune and Charles Robinson and Yahoo! talk about Packer fans feeling less than happy.
Other
Matthew Berry at ESPN makes his bold fantasy predictions.
Chase Stuart at the pro-football-reference.com blog on Daryl Lamonica as the best Oakland Raider QB ever.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
I woke up feeling normal; by the end of the day I was watching video of Brett Favre at Viking practice
See Favre Practice Highlights at Vikings.com.
If I don't blog the hell out of this, why even blog?
Short-Term and Long-Term
With Brett Favre, the 2009 Vikings will be better than they'd be with Tarvaris Jackson starting at QB, and no worse than they'd be with Sage Rosenfels starting at QB. And they have a chance to be much, much better with Favre than with Rosenfels.
But after 2009? Rosenfels? Jackson? Booty? Somebody else? We just don't know. I could see Booty being a later-round QB pick that gets the job after after a few years not playing at all. I could see Rosenfels or Jackson getting the job. I could see Childress bringing in another mediocre (or worse) veteran. But with any of these options, it's clear we've just pushed questions about the Viking QB position back yet another year.
To be fair, even if Favre didn't join the Vikings, questions about the Viking QB position might have been just as unanswered in 2010. But Rosenfels, Jackson, or Booty might have emerged (or still might if Favre gets hurt--who knows?). Now we're likely looking at 2009 being the year this team has geared up for a Super Bowl run, with questions again in 2010.
I said in May that Favre does not become a playoff X-Factor, citing his recent record:
Brett Favre's teams haven't won two playoff games during a single season since the 1997 season. In the 00s, Favre's teams have lost three home playoff games to seemingly inferior opponents, Favre has thrown two playoff overtime interceptions, and Favre has thrown multiple interceptions in four of his eight playoff starts.
But then, as I said earlier today, the '09 Vikings will be the best team Favre has had since the '97 Packers. I do think the Vikings with Brett Favre at QB can win a Super Bowl (but I think the Vikings can win the Super Bowl every year).
If they do, I'll experience an ecstasy that will leave me unconcerned with 2010. If they don't, then we'll be back speculating about just what this team is going to do with the most important position once again.
I'm an optimist on the Vikings: I'm always willing to believe that whatever they are doing is bringing them closer to winning a Super Bowl.
Where were you?
I was sitting in a car, waiting to go to Super Target to buy groceries and season three of Dexter. On KFAN, Paul Allen shared Mark Rosen's report that Favre was on his way to Minnesota (like, literally, on a plane). My wife and I shared our disappointment, and Paul Allen and Paul Charchian proceeded to berate Viking fans who were disappointed.
It's real.
ESPN has already shown video of Favre wearing a Viking helmet throwing the ball during practice.
And absurd
For many years I've been friends with Rob, a die-hard Packer fan and die-hard Brett Favre fan. And now we're sharing emails about the excitement of Favre, and he seems genuinely excited and sincere about rooting for the Vikings.
Fantasy Impact
Two Viking players just had their fantasy potential skyrocket: Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice. Favre loves to chuck it deep, and he's going to love seeing Berrian sprinting deep downfield. And Sidney Rice is the sort of athletic young receiver that I can see Favre connecting with frequently.
Get the DeLorean
Last week I was offered free tickets to the Vikings' preseason game this week. I turned them down: preseason football is dreadfully boring (I've attended two preseason games, and I stayed at one of them from beginning to end).
Help me out, older Viking fans
Have the Vikings ever had a QB with an arm as strong as Brett Favre, even at age 40? I remember in 1999 thinking I had never seen anybody throw such perfect hard, darting passes than Jeff George. Tommy Kramer was a gunner too, wasn't he?
But Favre can just blaze the ball, far, fast, and hard. That will be fun.
A new standard
My old standard about how sports change in ways that, if you knew it years before, you'd probably pass out from shock, was this 2004 Monday Night game between Seattle and Dallas. If my late-'90s self heard that one day Mike Holmgren would coach the Seattle Seahawks including Jerry Rice and Bill Parcells would coach the Dallas Cowboys featuring Vinny Testaverde and Keyshawn Johnson, my late-'90s self would have his brain shattered. But now if I turn on the TV, I'll see a story about Michael Vick backing up Donovan McNabb on the Philadelphia Eagles with the high likelihood that there will be times both players are on the field at the same time, and then I'll see video of Brett Favre throwing passes at a Minnesota Viking practice.
With Brett Favre, the 2009 Vikings will be better than they'd be with Tarvaris Jackson starting at QB, and no worse than they'd be with Sage Rosenfels starting at QB. And they have a chance to be much, much better with Favre than with Rosenfels.
But after 2009? Rosenfels? Jackson? Booty? Somebody else? We just don't know. I could see Booty being a later-round QB pick that gets the job after after a few years not playing at all. I could see Rosenfels or Jackson getting the job. I could see Childress bringing in another mediocre (or worse) veteran. But with any of these options, it's clear we've just pushed questions about the Viking QB position back yet another year.
To be fair, even if Favre didn't join the Vikings, questions about the Viking QB position might have been just as unanswered in 2010. But Rosenfels, Jackson, or Booty might have emerged (or still might if Favre gets hurt--who knows?). Now we're likely looking at 2009 being the year this team has geared up for a Super Bowl run, with questions again in 2010.
I said in May that Favre does not become a playoff X-Factor, citing his recent record:
Brett Favre's teams haven't won two playoff games during a single season since the 1997 season. In the 00s, Favre's teams have lost three home playoff games to seemingly inferior opponents, Favre has thrown two playoff overtime interceptions, and Favre has thrown multiple interceptions in four of his eight playoff starts.
But then, as I said earlier today, the '09 Vikings will be the best team Favre has had since the '97 Packers. I do think the Vikings with Brett Favre at QB can win a Super Bowl (but I think the Vikings can win the Super Bowl every year).
If they do, I'll experience an ecstasy that will leave me unconcerned with 2010. If they don't, then we'll be back speculating about just what this team is going to do with the most important position once again.
I'm an optimist on the Vikings: I'm always willing to believe that whatever they are doing is bringing them closer to winning a Super Bowl.
Where were you?
I was sitting in a car, waiting to go to Super Target to buy groceries and season three of Dexter. On KFAN, Paul Allen shared Mark Rosen's report that Favre was on his way to Minnesota (like, literally, on a plane). My wife and I shared our disappointment, and Paul Allen and Paul Charchian proceeded to berate Viking fans who were disappointed.
It's real.
ESPN has already shown video of Favre wearing a Viking helmet throwing the ball during practice.
And absurd
For many years I've been friends with Rob, a die-hard Packer fan and die-hard Brett Favre fan. And now we're sharing emails about the excitement of Favre, and he seems genuinely excited and sincere about rooting for the Vikings.
Fantasy Impact
Two Viking players just had their fantasy potential skyrocket: Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice. Favre loves to chuck it deep, and he's going to love seeing Berrian sprinting deep downfield. And Sidney Rice is the sort of athletic young receiver that I can see Favre connecting with frequently.
Get the DeLorean
Last week I was offered free tickets to the Vikings' preseason game this week. I turned them down: preseason football is dreadfully boring (I've attended two preseason games, and I stayed at one of them from beginning to end).
Help me out, older Viking fans
Have the Vikings ever had a QB with an arm as strong as Brett Favre, even at age 40? I remember in 1999 thinking I had never seen anybody throw such perfect hard, darting passes than Jeff George. Tommy Kramer was a gunner too, wasn't he?
But Favre can just blaze the ball, far, fast, and hard. That will be fun.
A new standard
My old standard about how sports change in ways that, if you knew it years before, you'd probably pass out from shock, was this 2004 Monday Night game between Seattle and Dallas. If my late-'90s self heard that one day Mike Holmgren would coach the Seattle Seahawks including Jerry Rice and Bill Parcells would coach the Dallas Cowboys featuring Vinny Testaverde and Keyshawn Johnson, my late-'90s self would have his brain shattered. But now if I turn on the TV, I'll see a story about Michael Vick backing up Donovan McNabb on the Philadelphia Eagles with the high likelihood that there will be times both players are on the field at the same time, and then I'll see video of Brett Favre throwing passes at a Minnesota Viking practice.
Surreal
Vikings.com spash page
Vikings.com news story
Vikings.com Brett Favre central
All the photoshopped images and crazy fantasies can't really prepare you for this.
Vikings.com news story
Vikings.com Brett Favre central
All the photoshopped images and crazy fantasies can't really prepare you for this.
This can work
I think the 2009 Vikings are the most talented team Favre has had around him since the 1997 Packers (don't let that remind you that Favre was in his prime 12 years ago). That might mean Favre can have an excellent season. If the team can build leads and win games with a strong defense and strong running game, it might mean Favre won't force as many turnovers. It also might mean that Favre won't have to throw as much, and he'll be much fresher and ready to perform at a high level in the playoffs. And Favre still has the arm strength, talent, and knowledge to make plays that help the Vikings win games.
I'm ready to put on my purple-tinted glasses. It's what I do.
I'm ready to put on my purple-tinted glasses. It's what I do.
Favre!
Ladies and Gentlemen, get ready for the most exciting Viking season since the Randy Moss era.
And get ready to enjoy your Minnesota Vikings' first every Super Bowl winning season. This is now a championship team. Just smile and enjoy, fools. Just smile and enjoy.
And get ready to enjoy your Minnesota Vikings' first every Super Bowl winning season. This is now a championship team. Just smile and enjoy, fools. Just smile and enjoy.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Blizzard
Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats has an interesting analysis of running back statistics, particularly regarding the difference between a "boom and bust" RB and a "steady plodder."
According to Alex Marvez at Fox Sports, new Lion coach Jim Schwartz had a big task of assigning parking spaces.
Jason at Defensive Indifference is not happy about more Favre rumors.
New Viking center John Sullivan on his feelings before the first preseason game (Pioneer Press).
Even Jay Glazer thinks ESPN is blowing Jay Glazer's article out of proportion (Pro Football Talk). I will say, though, Glazer shouldn't be shocked by the reaction: in the article Glazer quotes a few Vikings who assume Favre is joining the team eventually, says most of the people he talked to with the Vikings are "convinced" Favre will join the team, and talks about how most in the team openly accept that Favre will join the team. It was more than a mere prediction piece.
Mike Lombardi at National Football Post discusses the blue chip players on the NFC North and NFC East teams.
Cold, Hard Football Facts looks at some of the records being threatened this season in the NFL. Included: "The Vikings in 2009 will attempt to become the first team to lead pro football in run defense for four straight years (based upon yards allowed)."
Nancy Gay at Fanhouse gives three reasons the Vikings are leaving the possibility of Favre open (the first two are ticket sales and stadium issues).
MJD at Shutdown Corner includes Sage Rosenfels as a little-known player who can make a big impact, saying Rosenfels "becomes the key to the Vikings Super Bowl hopes."
Dana Scarton at Salon says you'll feel better if you just forgive Michael Vick.
The Vikings are offering some sweet deals to get people to buy good tickets to the home opener (Vikings.com). This makes me worry about the difficulty of sellouts. My plan for the season is to watch games on TV, maybe go to a game or two if it works out, and for sure go to any game that gets blacked out. If you cared about my plans.
According to Alex Marvez at Fox Sports, new Lion coach Jim Schwartz had a big task of assigning parking spaces.
Jason at Defensive Indifference is not happy about more Favre rumors.
New Viking center John Sullivan on his feelings before the first preseason game (Pioneer Press).
Even Jay Glazer thinks ESPN is blowing Jay Glazer's article out of proportion (Pro Football Talk). I will say, though, Glazer shouldn't be shocked by the reaction: in the article Glazer quotes a few Vikings who assume Favre is joining the team eventually, says most of the people he talked to with the Vikings are "convinced" Favre will join the team, and talks about how most in the team openly accept that Favre will join the team. It was more than a mere prediction piece.
Mike Lombardi at National Football Post discusses the blue chip players on the NFC North and NFC East teams.
Cold, Hard Football Facts looks at some of the records being threatened this season in the NFL. Included: "The Vikings in 2009 will attempt to become the first team to lead pro football in run defense for four straight years (based upon yards allowed)."
Nancy Gay at Fanhouse gives three reasons the Vikings are leaving the possibility of Favre open (the first two are ticket sales and stadium issues).
MJD at Shutdown Corner includes Sage Rosenfels as a little-known player who can make a big impact, saying Rosenfels "becomes the key to the Vikings Super Bowl hopes."
Dana Scarton at Salon says you'll feel better if you just forgive Michael Vick.
The Vikings are offering some sweet deals to get people to buy good tickets to the home opener (Vikings.com). This makes me worry about the difficulty of sellouts. My plan for the season is to watch games on TV, maybe go to a game or two if it works out, and for sure go to any game that gets blacked out. If you cared about my plans.
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