Randall McDaniel

Viking offensive lineman makes the Hall of Fame (Star Tribune).

HOF observations

Hall of Famer by Year of Induction

For the third consecutive year, no quarterback was elected (that's fine: QBs are overrepresented).

In the past two years, six defensive players were elected (that's good: defensive players are underrepresented).

Bruce Smith, Rod Woodson, and Derrick Thomas should also be in the Tecmo Super Bowl Hall of Fame.

Bob Hayes

In 2007 I compared Michael Irvin to Art Monk, and in 2008 I compared Cris Carter to Art Monk, with emphasis on the gray ink test.

Bob Hayes was top-10 in receptions twice, receiving yards six times, and receiving touchdowns six times.  He was also a capable punt returner, scoring three touchdowns and averaging 11.1 yards per return in his career.

Hayes' playoff numbers are underwhelming, but that's probably not going to keep Marvin Harrison out of the Hall of Fame (has any superstar in pro sports had such a dreadful playoff record?  Harrison has 128 regular season TD receptions, but failed to score a TD in 15 of 16 playoff games).

Hall of Fame

Bruce Smith, Rod Woodson, Derrick Thomas, Bob Hayes, Randall McDaniel, and Ralph Wilson will be Hall of Famers in 2009 (ESPN).

Smith, Woodson, and Thomas are three of the elite defensive players I've ever seen play.  

Randall McDaniel was a terrific offensive lineman for a Viking team that was consistently productive offensively.

Cris Carter, who ranked in the top-10 in receptions eight times, receiving yards five times, and receiving touchdowns eight times, has still not been elected to the Hall of Fame.

What's stopping Zygi Wilf from building a new stadium?

I do not entirely oppose public funding for private stadiums (though I believe states and cities should demand something substantive in return for the public money).  But I am fed up with the language used by owners and commissioners who want the new stadiums.

In the Star Tribune, Roger Goodell talks about the importance of getting a new Viking stadium in Minnesota.    And perhaps it is important.  But if it is so important, then Zygi Wilf can go ahead and build a new Viking stadium.  I don't know that anybody is actively trying to prevent him from doing so.  It is not as if the state of Minnesota is putting up roadblocks to stop a private businessman from building a profit-making building with his own money.  What Goodell really wants, of course, is for the state to give Wilf public money to build the stadium.  You know, money that could otherwise be used for matters such as transportation, education, health care, and other necessary programs that benefit a wide variety of Minnesotans.

For example, Goodell says:

"I think we have to continue to work with the governor and the leadership in that community to understand those priorities and figure out how we get a new stadium built. That is necessary for the Vikings. We all want the Vikings to be there in the long term, successfully. They need a new stadium, that's clear. I think it's recognized by all parties and we need to get down to the difficult business of figuring out how to do it."

Is it hard to figure out how to get the new stadium?  I'll make a proposal: Viking ownership invests money into its business to build a profit-making building for that private business.  The real challenge on how to do it will actually be up to the architects, engineers, construction crews, etc., that Zygi Wilf hires to build his profit-making building.  

Goodell uses euphemism to distort what he really wants.  When he says "we have to continue to work with the governor and the leadership in that community," he makes it seem as if they must work hard together in a spirit of cooperation to get things done.  But we can easily define what he's doing differently: he's lobbying for taxpayer money to be used to build a very expensive building for a private business that makes a lot of money in profits.

I think we can use different--but still accurate--terminology when talking about building a new stadium in Minnesota.  If we do that, the perspective changes drastically.  Instead of "stadium," would say "profit-making building for a private business."  Instead of "work with the governor and legislators," I'd say "find a way to get politicians to approve of giving away taxpayer money."  And when Goodell talks about "priorities of the community," we could say "a stadium versus better funding for public schools, improved roads and mass transit, and other necessities and benefits that help millions of Minnesotans."

I don't oppose building a new Viking stadium, and I do recognize the benefits to the community that may justify using public financing for the stadium.  But I'm tired of the euphemism.  Nobody is stopping Zygi Wilf from building a stadium.  Don't pretend that you need support to build the stadium, when what you really want is support to take our money to help build the stadium for you.

What Sunday means

Gary Laderman in "Super Bowl Sunday, American Holy Day," at Religion Dispatches:

"The Super Bowl is a holy day as much as it is a sports event, holy as a sacred carnival dedicated to, and undergirded by, consumerism and masculinity, nationalism and play."

Enjoy the Super Bowl, suckers.

The Super Bowl is just another thing to pass the time until Dunkin' Donuts gets here.

The Commercial Life

There's a lot of violence, sex, and alcohol in TV commercials during NFL games (ESPN).

This is worth our consideration, but I worry when somebody refers to "our friends at the Federal Communications Commission." Who has friends at the FCC? Though from what I can tell, Common Sense Media appears interested in informing parents and advocating for better media, not in censorship.

See also:
Common Sense Media report (PDF)
Common Sense Media Press Release
Common Sense Media Ad Info

Blizzard: In Soviet Russia, Super Bowl watches you!

Links
Players becoming coaches (Star Tribune).

Kenechi Udeze (Pioneer Press)

About a month ago I told my wife I hate the Timberwolves, that thinking about them just makes me sick or angry or sad and I wish they would relocate so I could call myself a Celtic fan, or at least change their colors from the dull blue and green. Then they went on a tear (Randball).

Some Super Bowl players would be excited to win and meet Barack Obama (Sports Illustrated).

Steeler Defense and legacy (Don Banks).

Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisberger, not in their first Super Bowl, wanting a better performance than last time (Michael Silver). I think this is a bigger deal for Roethlisberger's legacy--he really sucked in his first Super Bowl. The Steelers are a defense-oriented team, but Roethlisberger can take big steps toward making a legacy on Sunday.

Cold, Hard Football Facts interviews Bart Starr.

Free Matt Leinart! (Pro Football Weekly).

Outsports helps those who may watch the Super Bowl but don't know anything about it.

State of the Blog

--When I started blogging, using a pseudonym seemed natural. But now I start to feel sheepish, attempting serious critiques of sportswriters while using a funny nickname, and having serious discussions about sports which require people to refer to me by said nickname. Somewhere along the line I started to think of this as actual sportswriting, and it's starting to feel more legitimate to post here under my real name. That doesn't mean I scoff at others for using pseudonyms (in fact, I'll still post as PV at my other blogs), just that I'm ready for a switch.

--The offseason is upon us, meaning there will be more posts unrelated to the Vikings. At this blog, I've always simply written about whatever sports stories interest me, and that's usually the Vikings, particularly from August through December. During the offseason we still cover the Vikes, but we'll write more posts about other football stories, fantasy football (I'll keep a list of fantasy columns on the sidebar), intersections between sports and animals (few sports bloggers bring an animal rights perspective to such stories, so why not me?), basketball, critiques of bad sportswriting (my 2008 sabbatical from Jim Souhan and Tom Powers is over!), attempts to find the poetry in sports, and any other sports subjects that strike me as worth writing about.

Steeler Defense: Stats and Facts

In 2008, the Steelers rank #1 in points allowed (13.9/game) and #1 in yards allowed (237/game). They also rank #1 in pass yards per attempt allowed and #1 in rush yards per attempt allowed.*

It is not just conventional numbers that show the Steelers as the best in the league. The Steelers rank #1 in Football Outsiders Defense DVOA, #1 in in Brian Burke's defensive efficiency rankings, #1 in Cold, Hard Football Facts Hog Index, and #2 in CHFF Defensive Passer Rating.

This is a defense that is basically the best in the league at everything.

How does this Steeler defense compare to earlier Super Bowl Steeler teams?
1974: 13.5 points per game (#2), 219.6 yards per game (#1)
1975: 11.6 points per game (#2), 295 yards per game (#1)
1978: 12.2 points per game (#2), 260.5 yards per game (#3)
1979: 16.4 points per game (#5), 266.9 yards per game (#2)
1995: 20.4 points per game (#9), 285.1 yards per game (#3)
2005: 16.1 points per game (#3), 284 yards per game (#4)

But the 2008 team is not the first Steeler team to rank #1 in both points allowed and yards allowed: the 1976 Steelers and 2004 Steelers both achieved that feat.

Since the merger, four Super Bowl champions have fielded a defense that ranked #1 in both points allowed and yards allowed:**
2002 Buccaneers
1996 Packers
1985 Bears
1972 Dolphins
Perhaps the 2008 Steelers will be joining these teams as the fifth.

*NFL.com ranks the Vikings #1 and Steelers #2 with 3.3 ypa, but by the numbers they provide the Vikings allowed 3.31 per attempt, the Steelers 3.29.
**Unnecessary cheap shot to remind you this is, after all, a Viking blog: Brett Favre has a lot in common with Brad Johnson, Jim McMahon, and Bob Griese--give him an historically great defense, and he can win a Super Bowl!

Fantasy Football: Ignoring Touchdowns

In 2007, Braylon Edwards and Roddy White posted similar statistics in receptions and yards.

Edwards: 80 receptions, 1289 yards
White: 83 receptions, 1202 yards

Those numbers amount to a difference of 0.2 receptions and 5.5 yards per game, a negligible difference. Yet going into 2008, most fantasy footballers ranked Edwards far ahead of White (Fantasy Football Weekly, for example, ranked Edwards as the #3 WR, White as the #36 WR). Part of that difference was team context: Edwards would be catching passes from a returning Pro Bowl quarterback, while White would likely be catching passes from a rookie quarterback.

But a major difference was in touchdowns: Edwards had 16 touchdowns, White six. It seems quite reasonable to assess players by their touchdowns, since touchdowns play a major role in fantasy football. But Edwards' TD numbers should have raised crimson banners: 16 touchdowns is disproportionate to his other receiving numbers. One out of every five Edwards receptions went for a TD, and he had a touchdown for every 80.6 yards receiving. But it is simpler than that: 80-1,200 yard seasons are relatively common, 16 TD reception seasons are relatively rare.

That in 2008 Edwards was a major disappointment (55-873-3) and White continued to perform well (88-1382-7) of course cannot be attributed solely to Edwards' disproportionate TD numbers of 2007 (Edwards dropped a lot of balls, Cleveland QBs and offense in general struggled, Matt Ryan performed well). However, those touchdowns are critical to fantasy footballers--here's why.

Fantasy football is about guessing a player's actual value in contrast with his perceived value. This is true of auction or snake drafts: you don't just want to have ideas about what players will succeed or struggle, but you need to measure those ideas against the consensus of perceived value. Touchdowns, I think, disproportionately affect a player's perceived value--other statistics might be better indicators of a player's future performance. I'm not saying you should have known Edwards would struggle in 2008; I'm saying there were indicators he wouldn't live up to his perceived value.

And when preparing to draft, you need to find gaps between a player's perception and his performance. When a major fantasy football publication ranks 32 WRs between two WRs that posted nearly identical receptions and yardage, you know you've found a gap between perceived value and actual value. This can indicate players that will be drafted too early and too late, helping you to decide what high-ranked players to avoid, and what low-ranked players might be later-round steals.

There are a few lesson here. Beware of players whose TDs are disproportionate to their other numbers. Pay attention to different numbers to figure out which players have overrated perceived value. Pay attention to other numbers that indicate future success. You could even try do what I did specifically with Edwards and White here: try find a low-ranked player that is statistically even with a high-ranked player in other categories.

But to quote imminent theologian "The Misfit" of Flannery O'Connor's "A Good Man is Hard to Find,

"If He did what He said, then it's nothing for you to do but throw away everything and follow him, and if He didn't then it's nothing for you to do but enjoy the few minutes you got left the best way you can."

We don't need no stinking moderation: either devote yourself wholly, or forget about it and do whatever you want.

So I'm taking this theory further. I'm going to rank fantasy football players for 2009 with no regard for their 2008 touchdown numbers. The Hazelweird League is a touchdown heavy league, but in ranking players, I'm going to pretend touchdowns don't exist. I'll assess all the other possible individual statistics, examine those statistics for cumulative numbers, efficiency numbers, and game log numbers. I'll consider players on factors like team context (quality of teammates, quality of offensive system, quality of coaches, difficulty of schedule, etc.). I'll look at long-term performers, and I'll guess at players I think will break out.

My theory is that good fantasy players will score touchdowns, and I can look to other numbers to tell me who the good fantasy players are (or will be). But because touchdowns may distract from a good guess of a players' actual value for the following year, I'm going to pretend there are no touchdowns when I rank players.

Perhaps I will make two lists: the first factoring touchdowns, the second ignoring touchdowns. But I would guess that the first list will give me a closer idea of what order players will be drafted in, and the second list will give me a better idea of how players will actually perform. The second list will tell me what high-valued players to avoid early, what low-valued players to target late. It is the second list that will make some overlooked players jump out, some overrated players reveal themselves. It's the second list I'd go with.

I now embrace mock drafts

In past years, I've dismissed early mock drafts as silly. I was wrong. A mock draft is simply a way to learn who some of the top prospects are, and what some team needs may be. I will read them simply to learn those things.

Here is a Don Banks Mock Draft.

"Newman too?"

The wailing you don't hear is from Viking fans; special teams coordinator Paul Ferraro has taken a job elsewhere (Access Vikings).

Warner > Montana, Manning?

CHFF thinks so, suggesting Kurt Warner's outstanding playoff numbers push him past Joe Montana and Peyton Manning.

I actually think that in Kurt Warner's five peak seasons ('99, '00, '01, '07, '08), he played quarterback as well as anybody in the history of professional football. Ever.

The problem arises when we consider the years between those peak five seasons. He was struggling, and losing. If you match his playoff numbers against Joe Montana's playoff numbers, you're punishing Montana for actually getting his team to the playoffs a bunch more times, and rewarding Warner for missing the playoffs a bunch of times (he may well have stunk in the playoffs those seasons). Montana should probably be given credit for getting teams to the playoffs a whopping 11 times. And if you use Warner's playoff numbers to move him over Manning, you're basically pretending '02-'06 never happened for Warner, whereas in 11 seasons, Peyton Manning averaged 4,100+ passing yards and 30 TD passes.

Warner at his peak is arguably the greatest quarterback ever. But when he wasn't at his peak, he was mediocre to bad--you certainly couldn't say that Warner from '02-'06 was better than Montana or Manning. So when evaluating a quarterback, should you only consider his peak seasons, dismissing marginal to bad seasons, or should you assess the quarterback on an entire career?

But it is worth the argument.

Let Michael Vick move on

PETA's continuing publicity grabs surrounding Michael Vick and dog-fighting embarrass me. If you care, you can read why here.

Brad Childress

Football Outsiders Keep Choppin' Wood Coach of the Year (this is not a good thing).

1969 Vikings

They were the third best Super Bowl loser of all-time, sayeth Chase Stuart at pro-football-reference.com. Does this make you feel good or bad? I feel bad.

Super Bowl Rooting

I'm a suffering Minnesota sports fan: it's not in my nature to root for a fanbase to see its team win a sixth Super Bowl.  But I am rooting for the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are the better team, and they've been a good team all year long. They went 12-4 against a tough schedule, and they field a smothering defense (#1 in points allowed and #1 in yards allowed).   The Cardinals have been great in the playoffs, but they were of course a 9-7 team that outscored opponents by one point.  They would be a fluky champion, a team able to ride a hot Kurt Warner-Larry Fitzgerald streak at the right time.

There are people I like on both sides (in Arizona Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald, in Pittsburgh Troy Polamalu and Mike Tomlin).  But for some reason I want to see restoration of order, in which the champion is a dominant, superior team, not a nice story of a surprise underdog.

Whom are you rooting for?

Playoff Legacies: AFC

Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin are early in Hall of Fame careers.  They're both good in their own right, but they are also in a great organization that always finds talented players (especially on defense).  I expect them to be winning playoff games for years.  But there's one Pittsburgh Steeler that leaves me in awe.

Troy Polamalu

If he were a run-stuffing strong safety, I'd say, "gosh, I've never seen a defensive back make so many tackles around the line of scrimmage."  If he were a coverage free safety, I'd say "gosh, I don't remember a safety that made so many spectacular plays in the secondary, deflecting passes, intercepting passes, hitting receivers, tackling in the open field."  In his best plays, he's nowhere on the television screen, then he comes bolting from nowhere, hair flying, to make a great tackle or to get to a ball in the air.  

For a long time I've felt like Steeler linebackers just change names but remain the same players: Greg Lloyd and Chad Brown and Levon Kirkland and Kevin Greene and Joey Porter and James Harrison and James Farrior and LaMarr Woodley and Larry Foote.  But Polamalu is a unique player, a dynamic force that is always noticeable.  The odd number 43, the long hair, the quickness, the speed, the hard hits.  This is a spectacular player.  I don't think there's a non-Viking defensive player I've ever had such fun watching.

Playoff Legacies: NFC

Cardinals-Eagles

Kurt Warner 

Warner is now 8-2 in the playoffs (6-0 in home playoff games), and has played spectacularly well in many playoff games.  He will join Craig Morton (1970 Cowboys and 1977 Broncos) as the only QB to start a Super Bowls for two different teams.  Before the Super Bowl, Norm Van Brocklin  was a platoon quarterback for the champion 1951 Rams, and starter for the 1960 Eagles. Earl Morrall also started for the 1968 Colts, was backup on the 1970 Colts, was a backup that started and won several games for the 1972 Dolphins, and was a backup for the 1973 Dolphins.

Warner joins Terry Bradshaw, Roger Staubauch, Joe Montana, John Elway, Troy Aikman, and Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks to start at least three Super Bowls.  Those quarterbacks are Hall of Fame QBs--is Warner?  That's hard to say--he has had five great seasons, but was often irrelevant in other seasons.

Larry Fitzgerald

Fitzgerald's 2008 post-season may be the greatest post-season domination by a pass catcher ever.  Jerry Rice is the greatest playoff WR ever (in four Super Bowls, he had 33 receptions, 589 yards, and eight touchdowns) and his best single playoff run was probably 1988, when in three games he had 21 catches for 409 yards, three rushes for 29 yards, and six touchdowns.  Like Rice, Fitzgerald is aided by spectacular quarterback play.  But Rice was usually a superstar guiding a juggernaut, while Fitzgerald is a superstar guiding a surprise 9-7 team to the Super Bowl. Fitzgerald's games of 6-101-1, 8-166-1, and 9-152-3 have been a joyful and incredible run.

Donovan McNabb

Ken Stabler had some very good seasons and was a pretty good playoff quarterback (seven wins, five 100+ rating games, five multi-touchdown games), and has some memorable clutch playoff moments, but was 1-4 in AFC Championship games.  That's a lot like McNabb, but when when Stabler did get to the Super Bowl, he led the Raiders to a championship.

McNabb was often off-target against the Cardinals, missing open receivers high, low, behind, and in front.  Despite leading the team from down 24-6 to a 25-24 fourth-quarter lead, he has added to his reputation as a choker, a quarterback that doesn't come through in the "clutch."  Winning a Super Bowl would, I believe, cement a Hall of Fame career for McNabb.  One wonders, however, whether this was his last best shot.

Haunting my Dreams

Last night I dreamed, with fairly vivid detail, that the Vikings had just won the NFC Championship Game and were on their way to the Super Bowl.  Then I dreamed, with fairly vivid detail, that it was Monday morning after the Vikings had just won the NFC Championship Game.

After actually waking up to reality, I expect to be cranky all day.