It's fun to knock down Straw Men

The Straw Man fallacy: distorting an opponent's position, then refuting that distorted position.

Even more fun: speculate on and completely make up an opponent's position, then argue against that.

The example in practice from Mike Florio at Pro Football Talk.  Speculating on why Brad Childress elected to punt (and essentially give up on the game), Florio writes:

"Maybe the truth is that Childress feared backup quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, who replaced Gus Frerotte after his hand split open and gushed blood like watered-down gravy spilling from a ladle, would convert the long fourth down, and then perhaps would get a few more of them, and then perhaps would lead the team to a touchdown, requiring Childress to then perhaps revisit his decision to bench Jackson.

"A good coach is smart enough to realize that a quarterback who regains lost confidence can only help the team, even if it requires the coach to deal with internal or external voices clamoring for another change."

It's not just that the speculation is stupid (if anything, I think the opposite is true: Childress just saw Gus Frerotte leave with injury, and just saw Jackson take two straight sacks because he held onto the ball too long.  He may have decided he might need Jackson in the future and he didn't want to utterly destroy his confidence in a bad situation.  Or he didn't want Jackson to get hurt in a bad and dire situation, possibly requiring the team to start Booty.  I don't like that argument, but it's more likely speculation).  It's that after making up this speculative reason, Florio bothers to argue against that speculative reason.  That he entirely made up.  And that is very easy to argue against.

The Straw Man, ladies and gentleman.

Criticism of Brad Childress' ability to be head coach of the Vikings is entirely justified.  Criticism of Brad Childress' decision to punt the game away is entirely justified.

But this fallacious argument is just stupid.

What John Madden Just Said

"John Runyan, he gets on Brian Urlacher and doesn't let Urlacher get off him. He just gets on him and just rides him, rides him, rides him, rides him. Buckhalter sees that going on, and gets in behind Runyan."

Coming off the ledge

Titans-Vikings Box Score

The Vikings are built to win games by running the football and playing strong defense.  When you play that way, you're going to be in close games, and you have a thin margin of error.  As such, they can't expect to win a road game when they:

--fumble the ball three times.

--miss a field goal.

--commit seven penalties.

--drop passes.

Once again, the defense played admirably.  They only gave up touchdowns when Viking turnovers gave the Titans a short field.  They prevented first downs on 11 of 17 3rd down plays.

Once again, the offense just didn't have it in them to score more points than the opponent.  But today, the Vikings also made error after error, mistake after mistake, botched play after botched play.  They can't possibly expect to win a road game making that many mistakes.

What are the 1-3 Vikings going to do the rest of the season?  We must certainly temper our most hopeful expectations, but the Vikes are still just one game back of the NFC North leader.  But they look like a fiercely competitive team at home, and an incompetent mistake-prone team on the road.  The schedule does get easier, but for the Vikings to be better than 7-9 this season, they have to win a road game (this is a literal statement).  And they can't make as many big errors as they did today if they expect to win any road games.

Vikings! Vikings! Vikings!

Vikings! Vikings! Vikings!

Game today.

note: comments from the game are in the comments.  Here is where you can leave your complaints and rants.  Or perhaps you've just given up and you're taking this with calm resignation.

National Friday League, week four

Vikings-Titans Preview

NFL Game Preview

Flip the jerseys around on these teams, and you've still got:

A tough defense built around dominant defensive tackles.

A conservative offense that's willing to grind it out with lots of running.

Multiple running backs, including one that is capable of a giant play on any touch.

Aging QBs that began the season as backups but are now starting for teams with playoff aspirations.

A shaky group of wide receivers.

This game should feature strength against strength: run offense and run defense, but the Vikings are more dynamic in both areas as seen in the rankings below:

2008 Vikings

rush yards: 4th

rush yards per attempt: 7th

rush yards allowed: 4th

rush yards per attempt alowed: 4th

2007 Vikings

rush yards: 1st

rush yards per attempt: 1st

rush yards allowed: 1st

rush yards allowed per attempt: 2nd

2008 Titans

rush yards: 6th

rush yards per attempt: 15th

rush yards allowed: 10th

rush yards allowed per attempt: 9th

2007 Titans

rush yards: 5th

rush yards per attempt: 21st

rush yards allowed: 5th

rush yards allowed per attempt: 15th

It's a tough matchup: on the road, outdoors, against a well-coached team that will keep the game close no matter what. It's not the sort of game we'd expect to see the Vikings win. It's not even the sort of game the Vikings have to win to still win the NFC North. But if they're as good as we hope they are, they can win. Perhaps they even should win.

Week Four Schedule

Is week four too early to anoint anybody or give up on anybody? Of course. Is it annoying when a person asks a question then immediately answers it himself? You tell me. But I still think week four has some interesting things to reveal to us.

Will Buffalo move to 4-0? They play at St. Louis: if the Bills really are a playoff team, this is a game they should win. If they are a middling team, this is a game they will struggle with.

Who is worse: the Bengals or the Browns? Whichever team loses this game is dead, done, finished. And will we see Brady Quinn?

Brett Favre and Kurt Warner: which old man QB will get the win Sunday? I'm starting to believe the Phoenix Cardinals could get to nine wins this season, which means they're a decent team that could lose to anybody.

Are the Green Bay Packers actually good? I don't know yet. They won a close game at home against the Vikes (and regardless of record they usually beat the Vikes there), nearly blew a game to a terrible Lion team, then were dominated in every facet of the game against the Cowboys. You could look at the Packers so far and see a quality team, but they still could turn out to be a middling team. They'll have a good test in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

J.T. O'Sullivan? Really? This could really be happening?

Matt Millen
A completely incompetent leader has been running things since 2001. He's bungled things so badly, people can hardly believe it: how could he be that awful? How could he make so many mistakes? How could me mismanage absolutely everything? But now he's going. Everybody hopes that whoever replaces him does a much, much better job, but then you never know: it sort of depends on who replaces him. Why is this story familiar?

Addendum: see my recent post at the Sven blog for more.

Fantasy Wasteland: Six Teams on Bye

This is a crazy destructive week for some teams; instead of listing the teams on bye, let's list the possible starting players on bye.

Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Jon Kitna, Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez, Colts Kicker, Ronnie Brown, Anthony Fasano, Randy Moss, Patriots Kicker, Laurence Maroney, Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Giants Defense, Plaxico Burress, Giants Kicker, Matt Hasselbeck, Julius Jones, Seahawks Kicker, Seahawks Defense.

Matt Forte: Fantasy Running Back

So far this year, Matt Forte ranks 1st in rushing attempts, 1st in touches, 4th in rushing yards, and 2nd in yards from scrimmage. Do you have confidence in Forte as a starting fantasy running back? I don't know if we can rely on him to keep this up, but the Bears seem committed to give him the ball, and he's been churning out yards.

The Viking Run Defense: Fantasy Destroyer

No matter who the running back is, it appears that if that running back is facing the Vikings, you should probably put that running back on the bench. Has there ever been a defense that would force a fantasy owner to put a top-5 pick RB on the bench while healthy? I really think the Vikings are that defense.

Coming soon: PV's Strength Listing*

Why does seemingly every football outlet on the web have "Power Rankings"? I suppose it is interesting enough to try rank all the teams: it's a nice midweek football discussion and pointless controversy starter. But why do they all have to be called Power Rankings? And why plural "rankings"? None of this makes entire sense to me.

In an effort to be creative, we'll be trying to counterbalance the tedious monotony of everybody else's "Power Rankings." We'll be doing something very, very different: "Strength Listing."

*won't really be coming soon.

Topps Basketball Cards

When it comes to sports cards, I'm a Topps loyalist: I love their base sets. And I particularly like something they do with their basketball set. Topps includes cards of retired players in their base set design (some Hall of Famer superstars, some just good players you don't expect to see on a throwback card). It's fun to be opening up a pack and coming across cards of folks like Bill Russell, George Gervin, Sidney Moncrief, and others just mixed in with current players.

Matt Bryant

Terribly sad news: Buccaneer kicker Matt Bryant's infant son died. Peace to Bryant and his family.

Links
Wally Hilgenberg (Pat Reusse, Vikings.com, Daily Norseman).

Gus Frerotte and Kerry Collins (Pioneer Press).

Gus Frerotte (Clark Judge).

Madieu Williams (Access Vikings).

The Vikings' and Titans' defensive lines (The Ragnarok).

Steve Young is getting his number retired (Sports Illustrated). What if I told you I secretly think Young was better than Joe Montana? Same reaction as if I told you I'm listening to Idina Menzel's CD while writing this? I'm crazy? C'mon, she played Maureen in Rent and Elphaba in Wicked: I'll give this a chance.

You have to pass well to win in the NFL (Cold, Hard Football Facts).

Josh Howard and the National Anthem (Dave Zirin).

Weekend
Have a good weekend everybody. Except Packer and Titan fans.

Alas

We still have our Matt Millen.

What will we do without Matt Millen?

From 2001 to 2007, the Vikings were 12-2 against the Detroit Lions.  What happens if the Vikes have to actually beat another real team in the division?

All-League Blizzard

NFC North
The Vikes are now a game behind the Packers,who have been less than impressive. The Packers already beat the Vikings at Lambeau, and they got a win against an awful Lion team. But they looked awful defensively against an excellent Dallas team on Sunday: they couldn't stop the run (217 yards and 6.2 per attempt) and gave up big plays against the pass (Tony Romo averaged 15.3 yards per completion). I don't discount the Packers, but the division is very much up for grabs.

The Bears scare me: they're not good enough offensively to advance in (or probably even make) the playoffs, but they're good enough defensively to sweep the Vikings.

NFC East
Tony Romo is a Tecmo quarterback. In a league of precision pass plays, Romo often drops back, roams around a bit, and then slings a pass somewhere deep downfield. He doesn't just drop back and throw a timing pattern from a three or five step drop: he's drops back deep, slides, runs, shuffles, and then finds a receiver. And what's more fun than Marion Barber and Felix Jones? Well, a lot of things are more fun than Marion Barber and Felix Jones. But aren't they really fun running backs to watch? Really, this is a dream Tecmo team: two good running backs, a good tight end, an elite WR, a 3-4ish defense, a DB in Adam Jones that might have the Rod Woodson-Deion Sanders style video game speed, good kick returners. Am I just watching my childhood come to life?

NFC West
Let's just say the 49ers, Seahawks, and Cardinals are each getting two wins against the Rams (though if the Rams do get a win this year, I would bet it's against San Fran). Whichever team is able to go 3-1 against each other needs to find four wins outside the division to get to nine wins. And that team will win the division. The NFC Wild Card teams are going to have a good chance to get to the second round of the playoffs.

NFC South
Since I can't think of anything really interesting to say, let's use this spot for some Peter King style narcissism: since I had a soy milk latte at Caribou Coffee yesterday, all I think about all day long is espresso. Is this bad? Is this a problem?

AFC North
The Steelers have problems. In their Sunday loss to the Eagles, they rushed for just 33 yards on 19 attempts, and Ben Roethlisberger was sacked nine times. But whereas I thought the Bengals would unseat them for a division title, it's the Ravens that may be making a push.

Did you draft any Cleveland Browns in your fantasy league? No? Then smile.

AFC East
Cheers to the Viking fans' brother and sister fans, Buffalo Bills fans. Bronco fans have moved on: we're the last fans of 0-4 Super Bowl teams. But at least you have that AFL title from before there were Super Bowls. Cherish it, friends. And enjoy your 3-0 team with a pretty manageable schedule (not that the Bills are good enough to overlook anybody on that schedule).

AFC South
I did pick the Bengals to win a freakin' division this year, so let me enjoy being right in ignoring the David Garrard hype.

The Titans are the Vikings. They've got a couple of good running backs that make them strong in the ground game. They've got a tough-minded defense built on dominant play from the defensive tackles. They're now turning the team over to a veteran journeyman QB, but neither really has WRs for that QB to throw to. And both teams could still win their divisions.

AFC West
The Denver Broncos are 3-0, and we're all impressed with Jay Cutler leading them to 38 points per game. But let us not forget they're allowing 28 points per game. The offense will come down, and the defense will stay bad: I still look for the Chargers to win the division easily. Then again, they've got some defensive problems of their own, giving up 31.3 per game. Philip Rivers throwing to Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and Ladanian Tomlinson suddenly looks like one of the most exciting passing games in the league. Give Norv Turner this: a dink and donk offensive mind he is not.

And consider this for the Chargers and Broncos: they are each likely to go 4-0 against the Raiders and Chiefs. That means to make the playoffs, they probably need to find six other wins. They play each other, so there's two more wins out there (the Broncos already have one of those). And they've each found one other win against a non-division opponent. I'll stick with the Chargers to be the AFC's one-seed.

There are some awful, awful teams in this league.
Look at your favorite team's schedule. If it plays against the Lions, Rams, or Chiefs, smile. If it plays against either team twice, smile bigger. You also might want to smile if you play the Raiders, the Texans, even the Browns.

The Cincinnati Bengals
When I'm wrong, I'm very wrong. They look like a bad football team. But they're also still a scary football team: if I see them on the schedule, I'm not writing it off as a win against a lousy team.

Fantasy Narcissism
This week I traded Brandon Jacobs for Ronnie Brown, so now I've traded my draft-day starting QB, both RBs, and both WRs. And I actually liked the team I drafted. How did this happen? Am I really starting Lee Evans and Bryant Johnson at WR this weekend? Is this for real? Am I really hitching my wagon to the Matt Forte experience? What happened?

Viking links
Gus Frerotte (ESPN, Viking Update).

The Vikings have sucked in the red zone (Star Tribune). They've got the running game to score inside the five (well, shouldn't everybody), but so far the passing game just can't do much from 20, 15, 10 yards out.

Jared Allen (Pioneer Press).

Wally Hilgenberg is dead

The former Viking linebacker is gone (Star Tribune). Peace to his family.

Trailing Clouds of Heaven: Vikings 20, Panthers 10

Vikings-Panthers Box Score

E.J. Henderson
Middle Linebacker E.J. Henderson has fast become one of my favorite Vikings. He's a terror, running all over the field, tackling running backs behind the line of scrimmage, slamming runners down in the open field. Certainly he's helped by Kevin Williams and Pat Williams taking up blockers and leaving him room. But in the open field and in the backfield, E.J. Henderson makes great tackles.

Antoine Winfield
We need to find a name for the sort of play Winfield made: one man recorded a sack, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, and a touchdown on a single play. And Winfield has been making these sorts of game-changing plays in his entire tenure with the Vikes. He's been a very fun player to watch.

Gus Frerotte
Let's put it simply: today Gus Frerotte made throws that Tarvaris Jackson could not make. The 48 yard pass to Bernard Berrian is the best example. Frerotte was poised in the pocket, patiently buying time, and he stepped up and delivered a perfect rainbow to a WR that had beaten the coverage. It was a beautiful play, and Tarvaris Jackson has rarely shown us the ability to make it.

In other cases, Frerotte just looked poised making progressions, running plays, and picking at the defense.

And Frerotte makes Bernard Berrian a factor. In the first two games, Bernard Berrian looked like a free agent bust, but today he made a few of the big plays we expect from him. He'll benefit from Frerotte, and the Vikings will benefit from getting productive big plays from a WR. Frerotte appeared to allow the Vikings to open up the offense. Not only were the Vikes doing more three wideout sets, but they were actually sending wide receivers wide more frequently--when Jackson was in, they often had a WR tighter to the formation. They're spreading it out, opening up possibilities for the offense.

Frerotte's not perfect: he can throw a pretty ball, but he can also throw inaccurate passes. What's the ceiling for Gus Frerotte? At best, he could be our Trent Dilfer (how much hope did the 2000 Ravens give to fans of teams with lousy QBs?). With an extremely good defense, with a very good running game, if Frerotte can convert some 3rd downs, hit on some deep passes, the Viking season can definitely turn around.

The Pass Rush
In the first half, I thought Jake Delhomme often had too much time to throw. But starting late in the second half, the pass rush really picked up. In the second half, once the Vikes had the league and needed to stop the Panther pass, the pass rush became ferocious. In the second half, the defensive linemen rushing the passer did all we could have hoped from them.

The run defense is so smothering we take it for granted: for the most part, a team running the ball against the Vikings just isn't going to succeed.

Stopping Steve Smith
I don't have the answer about how, but the Viking defense clearly contained Steve Smith, especially in the second half.

Thunderdome
A lucky day: my brother and I got tickets in the ninth row behind the end zone for cheap. It's a thrilling angle to watch a game. I found it particularly great watching the defense, seeing the pass coverage, the intensity of the pass rush, the fast-closing holes on run plays.

This is our team
Today we saw how the Vikings are going to win games. They're going to control the game defensively, stalling the run and rushing the passer, holding teams to few points and forcing some key turnovers. They're going to run the ball a lot on offense, converting some timely passes and some deep passes but mostly controlling the game as a run team. If Adrian Peterson breaks out for some long runs, they might blow opponents out. But 20-10 scores are something we should come to expect. And I'm happy with that, if it continues. I'm really enjoying watching a great defense do its work.

National Friday League, week three

Viking-Panther Preview
NFL.com Preview

Steve Smith
Will any Viking fan ever forget Steve Smith's 2005 game, when he tore up the Vikings with 11 catches for 201 yards? The Vikings went in with the intent of letting Fred Smoot cover Smith one-on-one, and they stuck to that strategy for a long, long time. Oh, guess who's back for the Panthers this weekend. Should I just crush my spirit now?

Gus Frerotte's Sack Rate
Last season, Tarvaris Jackson was sacked half as often as the other Viking QBs; Kelly Holcomb and Brooks Bollinger were each sacked over 12% of the time, while Jackson was only sacked 6.1% of the time. So with the Vikings benching Jackson, I worry that the team is going to take more sacks, which basically end drives for this team.

But Gus Frerotte has a career sack percentage of 6.0, better than Tarvaris Jackson's career percentage of 6.7. Maybe Frerotte will throw the ball quickly and avoid sacks. It will be tough this weekend: the Vikings are still without Bryant McKinnie, and they'll be facing Julius Pepper.

The Viking Defensive Line
Even in defeat, it was a pleasure to watch the Viking defensive line against the Colts. They got strong performances from their stars and from the lesser names. They harrassed Peyton Manning, often forcing him into bad throws, and they crushed the Colt running game.

This defensive line is capable of dominating every week, and they should be particularly strong at home. I'm frightened about this weekend's game, but the defensive line should give us a chance to win.

There Will Be Blackouts
The Vikes are again struggling to sell out the Metrodome (Pioneer Press). It's not hard to understand why: the team has been mediocre for almost a decade, the team often disappoints when there are high expectations, the Metrodome isn't a draw in itself, and in a tight economy, tickets are spendy.

There's a silly sort of moralism that says "true" or "real" fans will continue to fill out a stadium no matter how good or bad a team is doing. You only need to compare sports to other forms of entertainment to understand that's stupid. If a theater often does a bad job putting on a play, would you continue to buy tickets just because you think you should support that theater?

Other Games
It just seems like every game this week has some intrigue to it. Every game I look at, I'm intensely curious about the outcome. It should be a fun weekend of football.

Kurt Warner Lives!
There are enigmas in sports. For me, one of the greatest mysteries is how the man who put up those terrifyingly good numbers for the three year period from 1999 through 2001 could just entirely disappear from relevance so quickly. Just look at Kurt Warner's numbers and all the bold font you see in '99, '00, and '01. If Kurt Warner is back to that sort of business (and with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, he just might be), well, to me that's a lot of fun.

Zygi Wilf
For the record, I like Zygi Wilf: I think he's sort of like a fan. I've seen him simply gleeful after Viking wins. Seeing him in a gas station after the game last week, I saw him looking terribly upset after a Viking loss. And I put that into perspective. Here I am, a die-hard Viking fan, saddened and frustrated with a Viking loss. And here he is, the freaking owner. He must watch the game something like a fan (since during the game, he has no control over events)--how hard must he take these losses? Evidently hard enough to be getting out of Thunderdome pretty quickly after the game to go to a gas station by himself.

Zygi Wilf: I like you.

Fantasy Narcissism: The Brandon Jacobs Experience (I guess)
Here were my position starters for week two; in parentheses are the starters I thought I had drafted.

QB: Kurt Warner (Matt Hasselbeck)
RB: Adrian Peterson (Marion Barber)
RB: Brandon Jacobs (Brandon Jacobs)
WR: Calvin Johnson (Reggie Wayne)
WR: Anthony Gonzalez (Torry Holt)
TE: Vernon Davis (Dallas Clark)

I wish I could even understand how, in week two, my fantasy team was so transformed. I guess I'm also a typical Viking fan, because I've given up on struggling players just two weeks into the season (I traded away Torry Holt and Matt Hasselbeck this week for...wait for it...Laurence Maroney and Lee Evans).

The Bills
Really, honestly, I don't think they're that good. But this weekend they play the Raiders at home: they'll be 3-0!

Links
Apparently Tarvaris Jackson isn't really talking to Gus Frerotte (Pioneer Press). Montana/Young this is not.

The Vikings discuss covering Steve Smith with Antoine Winfield (Star Tribune). How about Antoine Winfield plus somebody else. The front seven can handle stopping the Panther running game, and there is one--ONE--receiver that can consistently hurt the Vikes.

Weekend
Back to Thunderdome to buy tickets on the street. Last weekend I got $25 nosebleed seats, and I expect to get the same again. Good veggie burgers at the Dome, too.

Have a good weekend everybody. Except Packer fans.

Mini Tarvaris Blizzard

If Bryant McKinnie doesn't get suspended (in criticisms of Brad Childress's conservative playcalling, few point out that the Vikes are without their starting left tackle--would they take more risks in the passing game if they could rely on their pass protection?), if Madieu Williams doesn't get injured (the Vikings lost two close games in which they gave up some key long passes over the middle; does that happen if they aren't starting a rookie safety?), if Heath Farwell doesn't get injured (he is a special teams captain and a good cover man on kick returns; did his absence play any role in Green Bay's punt return for a touchdown?), is this happening? Regardless of whether or not Tarvaris Jackson is capable of starting at quarterback right now (and I'm now in the "he's not" camp), there are other facts outside of Jackson's control that result in the team being 0-2 right now.

"Vikes Won't Go Anywhere With Jackson at QB" (Ross Tucker).

"Jackson's Failure Shakes Childress" (Kevin Seifert).

"Vikes had Jackson's back, then stabbed him in it" (Cold, Hard Football Facts).

Starter Gus

Well it is official. Tarvaris is out, Gus is in.

I for one don't expect to see much improvement. Until the play-calling improves and the WRs show they can get seperation I think it will be the same-old results.

Not to mention has anyone really looked at Gus and what he did last year in St. Louis? He was horrible! (and he had Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt to throw to) Gus is a career 54% completion percentage QB you know what that means. Same crappy results.

Ziggy------go find a QB!!!!!

Cycle of Life

When Brad Childress finally benched Brad Johnson in favor of Tarvaris Jackson, the Metrodome crowd cheered. It was more a cheer for a change than a clear celebration of Jackson.

I think Childress will eventually bench Tarvaris Jackson this season, whether for Gus Frerotte or John David Booty depends on circumstances. And I predict we'll see either Frerotte or Booty during a road game first. Childress won't want fans to cheer the benching of Jackson, neither to put Jackson through that nor to give fans the chance to indict Childress' earlier choice.

I admit it: I've given up hope in Jackson. I wanted him to succeed, and I thought it possible he could take strides this season. But he so regularly throws passes that are wildly inaccurate. If he just made questionable decisions (which he does), or if he just looked uncomfortable in the pocket (which he does), I'd think those are areas he could improve. But can he stop throwing passes that are far off-target? I don't see that changing: I see it as a flaw in his quarterbacking abilities. If he struggles Sunday and his struggles are preventing the Vikings from scoring touchdowns, I hope to see Gus Frerotte come onto the field.

"Vikings run QB option" (Star Tribune)
"Childress discusses Jackson" (Access Vikings)
"Tarvaris Talk" (Access Vikings)
"Viking coach Brad Childress not as firm in commitment to Jackson" (Pioneer Press)

Turning Around the 2008 Vikings

Nothing in the Vikings' loss to the Colts Sunday can be pinned on the defense. Not only did the Vikes shut out the Colts for the entire first half, but they often stopped drives so early they provided the offense with excellent field position. As Mike Morris said on KFAN after the game, the Viking defense basically gave up two long pass plays. But if you're playing a team that can pass as well as the Colts can, and you're consistently stopping drives and allowing the offense to start drives near midfield, you have to expect the offense to give you more than a 15 point lead. You have to do something so that two long pass plays doesn't cost you the game.

The secondary played admirably, the pass rush was ferocious, and the run defense was smothering. Everything in the loss goes on the Viking offense.

Furthermore, nothing can be pinned on the running game. Adrian Peterson was dominant, and it took one half for Indianapolis to realize they didn't need to account for the passing game at all, and they could focus all their attention on stopping Peterson. Peterson can play great, but unless he's running for long touchdowns, he'll still need the Vikings to sustain and finish some drives with the pass.

No, the Colts' loss is entirely on the Viking passing game.

Can the Vikings put together a competent passing game during the 2008 season? I don't know if the pieces are there to do so. But it's obvious the passing game they have is a failure. I have a few suggestions for ways to possibly improve the passing game immediately.

1. Substitute Gus Frerotte for Tarvaris Jackson
We can make excuses for Jackson: his receivers aren't helping him, his coaches aren't helping him, there are successful pro QBs that weren't even playing in their third seasons, whatever. But what we're seeing is obvious:

--Jackson regularly throws passes so inaccurate his receivers have no chance to catch them.
--Jackson seems unable to pass from the pocket.
--Jackson's limitations severely limit what the Vikings are able to try do offensively.

I don't think Gus Frerotte, right now, is a good quarterback. I don't even think Gus Frerotte, right now, is an average quarterback. But we're not even looking for average! If Frerotte can be a replacement level game manager, able to occasionally threaten defenses with a deep pass, able to occasionally help finish drives with successful passing in the red zone, he can help this team win.

Jackson has done nothing to show he can be a successful passer in this league. We have to admit this, and move on.

2. Substitute Garrett Mills for Visanthe Shiancoe
At this point, when Visanthe Shiancoe drops passes in the end zone, we should be more angry at the Viking coaches than at Shiancoe. We know that Shiancoe drops passes regularly, so why do the coaches still call pass plays to him in key situations?

We don't entirely know what Mills can do, but we know what Shiancoe can't do, namely, catch the ball regularly. He's a negative presence on the Viking offense, and needs to be less used.

3. Call more pass plays on first down and more run plays on third down
Adrian Peterson is truly stunning: the defense knows what is coming, but Peterson still churns out positive yardage.

But what if there was more variety in playcalling? What if the Vikings passed on first down enough that defenses had to account for it? The passing game has more potential for successful plays on 1st and 10 than on 3rd down. And what if the Vikes ran the ball in situations like 3rd and 5? What might Adrian Peterson do if he gets the ball when the defense isn't counting on him getting the ball? And how might the passing game on 3rd down improve if defenses knew they had to account for runs to Peterson, too?

The Vikes have been awful on 3rd down; variety in playcalling may change that.

I don't know if the Viking passing game can be turned around right now. But it's obvious that they need to try something different if it is going to be turned around, and these are my three basic suggestions.

Coming off the Ledge: Colts 18, Vikings 15

I'm spent, but here is your post to rant on. Suggested topics:

--the total ineptitude of the Viking passing game (total ineptitude is not hyperbole, is it? The passing game is awful)
--the questionable offensive playcalling
--the inability of a team dominating the game to score a touchdown
--the great effort of the Viking defense in defeat
--how brilliant Adrian Peterson is, and how long it will be before there is a passing game to compliment him

I'll add one anecdote. As my friend Brad and I were leaving Thunderdome, we stopped at a gas station. Who should walk in to get pop and a snack? The angriest billionaire I've ever seen: Zygi Wilf. I just stood there afraid to say anything for a few minutes: the man looked worn out and just absolutely furious.

Victory! (2)

I just heard Kirk Herbstreit say "At the end of the day, what I think it comes down to is..."

Are people on TV just trying to fill the air time with words? What does "at the end of the day" even mean anymore? And why say it at all, if you're next phrase means exactly the same thing as "at the end of the day"?

National Friday League, week 2

Vikings-Colts
See below for my extended preview of the game.

Second Favorites
There are some who argue that one shouldn't have a second favorite football team. I say, why not? There are no rules for being a fan, no matter what Bill Simmons tries to tell you. We're watching a game for pleasure, and so we should watch and root in whatever ways give us pleasure.

It's no secret on this blog of my admiration for Peyton Manning--he's my favorite non-Viking, and the Colts are currently my favorite non-Viking team.

But here's how it works for me: there is not even a tiny part of me that wants the Colts to beat the Vikings this weekend. At no point in my thoughts on the game have I imagined taking any satisfaction in a Colts win at the expense of the Vikings. I may root for Manning 15 other times this year, but on Sunday I'm hoping he stinks, that the Vikes sack him 10 times and intercept him 5 times and set him back at a 49-0 halftime deficit. My love of the Vikings swallows up anything else in sports.

Special Teams
When a team gives up a punt return for a touchdown, you know the special teams were bad. But I found the Vikes' kick and punt return games on Monday disappointing. A Viking offense that is predicated on running well and features an inconsistent passing game will have trouble going 80 yards downfield regularly. If the Vikings can start some drives at their own 40 or better, I'm optimistic about their chances of winning. Luckily, the Colts often struggle on special teams--it could be a good week.

Links
Tony Dungy (Star Tribune, Pioneer Press).

Tarvaris Jackson (Sid Hartman).

Tarvaris Jackson answers questions (Access Vikings).

The Vikes are still having trouble selling tickets (Pioneer Press).

Artis Hicks may be hurt (Viking Update).

From Grant's Tomb: "as we head into game 34 of the Chilly era, the Vikings have needed to throw the ball, not a little better, but a lot better in just about every one of the previous 33 games."

The Packer fan at 'fuh-"baw amuses me: people who yell "Take that you fucking Swedes!" when the Packers beat the Vikings are funny in some weird way.

Other games
There are a lot of intriguing games in week two. Perhaps the two best teams in the NFC, Dallas and Philadelphia, play each other Monday Night. That makes it an interesting game to watch, but there are a lot of big NFC East games throughout the season for these teams to beat up on each other. It should be a fun game, but I'm not drawing any significant conclusions from the outcome. I will draw some conclusions from the Denver-San Diego matchup: if the Broncos win, they'll look an impressive 2-0 (a blowout road win followed by a home win against the division favorite) and the Chargers will look a disappointing 0-2. But if the Chargers win, then "they are who we thought they were." I swear, I don't think Buffalo is that good, but I expect them to beat an overrated Jacksonville team this weekend.

But after the Vikes lost week one, I'm really having trouble spending much time thinking about other games. It's not that it is a must-win game (when I projected the season, I had the Vikes losing their first two games but still winning the NFC North--they can still get to 10+ wins with an 0-2 start), but if they lose, there's going to be intense pressure and a thin margin of error. And come on, we all want to feel the joy of a Viking win again--it's been almost nine months! Some children conceived in the euphoria of that win are now out squinting their eyes and soiling their diapers.

Weekend
I don't have a ticket for the Vikings-Colts game, but Sunday morning I'm heading over to the Metrodome with plans to buy a ticket from somebody on the street. Whenever I've gone to games, there are always plenty of people trying to sell tickets (sometimes at nice prices), so I'm not too worried about getting in.

Enjoy your weekend, everybody. Except Packer and Bear fans.

Vikings-Colts Preview

Vikings-Colts
Why Viking superstars Adrian Peterson and Kevin Williams can dominate this game

The Colt Defense
So what do we make of this Colts' team? I'm not sure what defense is actually making the journey to Thunderdome this weekend.

The 2006 Colts had an awful, awful run defense: they were last in the league with 2,768 yards allowed and an absolutely stunning 5.3 yards per attempt allowed. Then they somehow put it together to win four playoff games, including the Super Bowl. Then the 2007 Colts ranked #1 in points allowed and sixth in yards per attempt allowed at 3.8. The change was largely attributed to Bob Sanders, who played just four regular season games in 2006 but 15 in 2007--Sanders was the '07 Defensive Player of the Year.

Then last week the Colts allowed 183 yards rushing, 123 from rookie Matt Forte. The play you will remember is Forte's 50 yard touchdown run, but the Bears were also 10/16 on 3rd down: the Colts had trouble getting stops against the Bears. That's right, the Kyle Orton Bears.

Is there any way to know what quality of defense we should expect to see from the Colts this weekend? We might see the sort of defense that would allow Adrian Peterson to rush for 200+ yards, but we might see Bob Sanders and friends stymie the Viking offense (I don't know if I've ever written out the word "stymie," and I really wanted to see how it felt).

It should come as no surprise who will be the Vikings' key offensive player:

Adrian Peterson
I think the Viking offensive line will be successful against the Colts' front seven: they will be able to open up lanes for Peterson to run. And we should look forward to seeing Peterson churn out five yard, seven yard, eight yard runs. But Peterson in the open field can do so much more. If he can make one or two Colt defenders miss, he can be gone for a touchdown. And if Peterson is able to rip off two or three very long runs, not only will he be directly scoring for the Vikings, but he'll force the Colts to try and stick a finger in the dyke (I don't know about this image of the finger in the dyke). And then maybe the Vikings can open up and gain yards and first downs passing, too (if Kyle Orton and the Bears can do it...right? right?).

The Colt Offense
Over the past decade, the Indianapolis Colts have had an historically good offense. The Colts have ranked #5 or better in both points scored and offensive yards gained an incredible eight of the past nine seasons.

We should be encouraged that the Bears went on the road last week and held the Colts to 13 points (well, maybe not "encouraged," since we do have to play those Bears twice). Peyton Manning missed all of preseason, center Jeff Saturday and tight end Dallas Clark have been injured, and the Colts just might be vulnerable right now. At least, that's what we'll have to tell ourselves, because this offense can be downright terrifying.

The Vikings should be able to curtail Joseph Addai (I'm not sure I've ever used "curtail" in this context: I'm trying all sorts of words): the Vikings have the defensive players to disrupt running plays and stop the Colts' stretch play behind the line of scrimmage. I foresee a lot of big plays from Kevin Williams in particular: he's a dominant interior lineman that the Colts will struggle to contain.

But can the Viking secondary cover Marvin Harrison? No. Can the Viking secondary cover Reggie Wayne? No. Can anybody stop Peyton Manning if he gets into rhythm? I don't think so.

And that's why it is absolutely crucial that the Vikings can generate a pass rush. If the Vikings don't put consistent pressure on Peyton Manning Sunday, he will throw for 400 yards. There are reasons to be hopeful the Vikings can, indeed, generate that essential pass rush. They're back at home, where they'll have the turf and the home crowd for support. Despite a poor game Monday, Jared Allen has the ability to put a strong outside rush on. The Peyton Manning of years past could dissect and destroy a blitz, but the Peyton Manning of week one could not: if they front four isn't rushing him, the Vikes can afford to bring more. And finally, the way to really disrupt Manning and the Colt offense isn't really from a blitz, and it's not even from an outside pass rush, which Manning can step away from. The wy to really disrupt this offense is from an interior pass rush. And the Vikings can bring that. They've got two dominant forces in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams, who are both effective not only at smothering the run, but at getting penetration into the pocket and disrupting a pass play. And so we come to the key defensive player:

Kevin Williams
If Williams is on his game, he can have a gigantic one-man impact in stopping the Colts' offense. They run that stretch-play (which they turned into a toss week one), and Williams can get a quick burst through the line to force Addai away from where he wants to go. And against a Colt offensive line that looked shaky stopping Bear rushers up the middle, he can also use his quick burst to force Manning to make quicker, rushed throws. He can knock down passes, he can force incompletions, and he can knock down the quarterback. I expect and hope for a dominant game from #93. And it will be hard for the Colts to adjust to his presence: they can't lose focus on Pat Williams or E.J. Henderson making plays, either.

If the Vikings win this game (and I believe they can), it will be in large part because Kevin Williams was able to control the game from a defensive tackle position.

Viking mini-blizzard.

The Viking pass game needs to improve for a shot at a championship (Cold, Hard Football Facts).

What of Brad Childress' decision to go for two? (Advanced NFL Stats).