I listed the Viking off-season needs in this order:
1. Wide Receiver
2. Quarterback
3. Safety
4. Defensive End
The Vikings have signed fullback Thomas Tapeh and safety Madieu Williams. According to Access Vikings, the Vikes are currently talking with wide receiver Bernard Berrian (he's in Minnesota--if they want him, they ought not let him leave without a contract), and they're planning on having defensive end Justin Smith visit Saturday.
Safety, Wide Receiver, Defensive End. If they sign starters for all three of those positions, what's left for the draft? Depth, of course, and the proverbial "best player available." And of course getting another talented wide receiver or defensive end only helps the team. Their need at quarterback (a reliable backup or a competitor for starter) don't seem to be met in the draft, though I suppose it could be.
Of course, I'm putting the vulture in front of the short stack of pancakes here (I'm inspired by The Onion to replace common idioms with complete nonsense--I mean cart before the horse and all that). The Vikings may miss out on both Berrian and Smith. But the Vikings appear to be attempting to fill team needs in free agency--they have a plan. That's encouraging.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Thomas Tapeh!
Fullback Thomas Tapeh, a former Minnesota Gopher and St. Paul Johnson Governor, joins the Vikes (Access Vikings).
Brady Quinn
At Epic Carnival, I compare Brady Quinn to Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer. FREE BRADY QUINN!
I also want to express how disappointed and horrified I am whenever a good player from the AFC joins a team in the NFC. It seems to be happening a lot in the last few days. Since I've never seen the Vikings even reach the Super Bowl, I don't care how good the AFC teams are; I don't like seeing the Vikings' NFC competition getting stronger.
I also want to express how disappointed and horrified I am whenever a good player from the AFC joins a team in the NFC. It seems to be happening a lot in the last few days. Since I've never seen the Vikings even reach the Super Bowl, I don't care how good the AFC teams are; I don't like seeing the Vikings' NFC competition getting stronger.
Madieu Williams
Safety Madieu Williams is apparently close to joining the Vikes (PFT, Access Vikings).
The Ragnarok has already looked at how Williams could help the Vikings. He's evidently very good in pass coverage, which is a big need for the Vikes.
UPDATE: PFT says it's all worked out.
The Ragnarok has already looked at how Williams could help the Vikings. He's evidently very good in pass coverage, which is a big need for the Vikes.
UPDATE: PFT says it's all worked out.
Already starting
There's already Viking free agent news (at Access Vikings, and then at PFT).
According to said sites, WR Bernard Berrian and DE Justin Smith already have Twin Cities visits in the works (Kevin Seifert says Zygi Wilf's private plane is going to get Berrian). The Vikes could fill two of their biggest needs with two of the best available FAs at those positions.
Access Vikings mentions some QBs that the Vikes might, maybe, possible have interest in: J.P. Losman and Josh McCown. I've always had a weird infatuation with McCown, though reason suggests I shouldn't. Losman really intrigues me: he'll be 27 next season, he's got 31 career starts, and in the past two seasons he completed 62.7% of his passes. He's young enough to improve and be good, but he's got enough experience to produce immediately. I'd like to see Losman in a Viking uniform next year.
Tomorrow we'll all be refreshing Access Vikings and PFT regularly.
According to said sites, WR Bernard Berrian and DE Justin Smith already have Twin Cities visits in the works (Kevin Seifert says Zygi Wilf's private plane is going to get Berrian). The Vikes could fill two of their biggest needs with two of the best available FAs at those positions.
Access Vikings mentions some QBs that the Vikes might, maybe, possible have interest in: J.P. Losman and Josh McCown. I've always had a weird infatuation with McCown, though reason suggests I shouldn't. Losman really intrigues me: he'll be 27 next season, he's got 31 career starts, and in the past two seasons he completed 62.7% of his passes. He's young enough to improve and be good, but he's got enough experience to produce immediately. I'd like to see Losman in a Viking uniform next year.
Tomorrow we'll all be refreshing Access Vikings and PFT regularly.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Free Agent Blizzard
Here is how I rank the Vikings' top off-season priorities:
1. Wide Receiver
2. Quarterback
3. Safety
4. Defensive End
Playmaking pass catchers trump every other need on the team. At the very least, the Vikes need backup quarterbacks for Tarvaris Jackson, and they could bring in somebody to compete for the starting job. Safety shot up the list as a need when the Vikes cut Dwight Smith. Many would rank DE as a higher priority; I think that the Vikings could "get by" with Darrion Scott, Ray Edwards, Brian Robison, and other cheap guys at DE, while they couldn't just "get by" with anything they currently have at wide receiver, backup quarterback, or safety. Oh, they should definitely try to upgrade the DE personnel; I just don't see it as a desperate need like WR, QB, and S are.
Links
Kelly Holcomb is gone (Pioneer Press). Well, 0-3 as a starter, that was certainly not worth it.
The Ragnarok details Madieu Williams.
To answer the Daily Norseman's question, yes, I think Sage Rosenfels is worth a 3rd round pick, but only if the Vikes aren't able to fill the backup QB position without giving up a draft pick--which, frankly, they should be able to do. I guess I'm changing my answer to no.
Isaac Bruce, anyone? Man, I'm desperate (Football Outsiders).
But no, David Givens isn't the answer to any question (SI).
People really want Bernard Berrian (PFT). Mr. Berrian, Tarvaris Jackson is probably a better passer than either Vince Young or whomever the 49ers throw out there at QB.
Cold Hard Football Facts has some historical stuff on championship games and game-winning drives. Eli Manning has something in common with Bobby Layne (let's just hope Manning doesn't end up allegedly costing his team a win because he gambled on the outcome and tries to throw a touchdown to beat the point spread rather than simply going for the win with a field goal, then getting traded that week, then still making the Hall of Fame because the selectors have an odd way of viewing "character").
The Starting Five comments on Minnesota's departed stars.
End Zone Buzz looks at the NFC North teams' needs.
Stop Mike Lupica writes about some sports blog conflicts. Sometimes I consider just up and starting a feud with another sports blog, but I don't.
Roy S. Johnson praises Chris Paul. The great state of the Point Guard position is going to be on full display in the Western Conference playoffs this year, as folks like Paul, Kidd, Nash, Parker, Williams and more go against each other. It's going to be fun.
1. Wide Receiver
2. Quarterback
3. Safety
4. Defensive End
Playmaking pass catchers trump every other need on the team. At the very least, the Vikes need backup quarterbacks for Tarvaris Jackson, and they could bring in somebody to compete for the starting job. Safety shot up the list as a need when the Vikes cut Dwight Smith. Many would rank DE as a higher priority; I think that the Vikings could "get by" with Darrion Scott, Ray Edwards, Brian Robison, and other cheap guys at DE, while they couldn't just "get by" with anything they currently have at wide receiver, backup quarterback, or safety. Oh, they should definitely try to upgrade the DE personnel; I just don't see it as a desperate need like WR, QB, and S are.
Links
Kelly Holcomb is gone (Pioneer Press). Well, 0-3 as a starter, that was certainly not worth it.
The Ragnarok details Madieu Williams.
To answer the Daily Norseman's question, yes, I think Sage Rosenfels is worth a 3rd round pick, but only if the Vikes aren't able to fill the backup QB position without giving up a draft pick--which, frankly, they should be able to do. I guess I'm changing my answer to no.
Isaac Bruce, anyone? Man, I'm desperate (Football Outsiders).
But no, David Givens isn't the answer to any question (SI).
People really want Bernard Berrian (PFT). Mr. Berrian, Tarvaris Jackson is probably a better passer than either Vince Young or whomever the 49ers throw out there at QB.
Cold Hard Football Facts has some historical stuff on championship games and game-winning drives. Eli Manning has something in common with Bobby Layne (let's just hope Manning doesn't end up allegedly costing his team a win because he gambled on the outcome and tries to throw a touchdown to beat the point spread rather than simply going for the win with a field goal, then getting traded that week, then still making the Hall of Fame because the selectors have an odd way of viewing "character").
The Starting Five comments on Minnesota's departed stars.
End Zone Buzz looks at the NFC North teams' needs.
Stop Mike Lupica writes about some sports blog conflicts. Sometimes I consider just up and starting a feud with another sports blog, but I don't.
Roy S. Johnson praises Chris Paul. The great state of the Point Guard position is going to be on full display in the Western Conference playoffs this year, as folks like Paul, Kidd, Nash, Parker, Williams and more go against each other. It's going to be fun.
Vikes in Free Agency
The Star Tribune reports the Vikes will likely be pursuing some recognizable free agents. If they're able to get Bernard Berrian, Madieu Williams, and Justin Smith, I will learn to love them all.
The idea of Bernard Berrian is growing on me.
The idea of Bernard Berrian is growing on me.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
laughing out loud in my office
This has nothing whatsoever to do with sports, but when something gives me this much joy (and laughing to the point of tears by myself in my office is unrestrained joy), I want to share it with others.
See garfield minus garfield. It's funny on levels I don't even understand.
(via bookslut)
See garfield minus garfield. It's funny on levels I don't even understand.
(via bookslut)
A two year old blog
Two years ago today Pacifist Viking had its first post. We're still trying to somehow be both a Viking blog and a general sports blog (though I think we're more of a Viking blog). We're still pretentiously incorporating literature and poetry into our sports commentary. We still whine a lot.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
You know you're desperate for WRs when...
When you see people like Eddie Kennison now available and you think, "Hm, I wonder if he'd be willing to come to Minnesota?"
Other lousy receivers the Vikes could sign include Justin McCareins and Brandon Lloyd. Looks like they're dodging the proverbial bullet on Muhsin Muhammed, though.
Those of us who grew up with Anthony Carter, Cris Carter, Jake Reed, and Randy Moss are now holding our heads in our hands.
Other lousy receivers the Vikes could sign include Justin McCareins and Brandon Lloyd. Looks like they're dodging the proverbial bullet on Muhsin Muhammed, though.
Those of us who grew up with Anthony Carter, Cris Carter, Jake Reed, and Randy Moss are now holding our heads in our hands.
Monday, February 25, 2008
The nightmare is over.
We used to have some receivers that could catch but couldn't get open, and some that could get open but couldn't catch.
Now we just have receivers that can catch but can't get open.
Now we just have receivers that can catch but can't get open.
Mondays, huh? (blizzard)
CombineThe combine is like preseason: football news, but devoid of content or meaning. It's all abstract potential. Free agency and the the draft are different: there, we learn that Player A will be playing for Team B. That's actual content and meaning. I give only tangential attention to the combine or preseason.
Getting up for free agency...again
For several years, I've gotten excited for free agency and the possibilities for the Vikings. For several years, I've gotten excited about particular players they've signed, many who did turn out to be outstanding performers for the Vikes (Antoine Winfield, Pat Williams, Steve Hutchinson). But the Vikings still haven't had a 10+ win season since 2000. We get excited for all the ways the Vikings can improve, but when I keep doing it every year, and they're still basically an 8-9 win team (which they've been four of the past five seasons), I start to get skeptical about what's really going to change.
Tone
While there are objective arguments to be made in sports, discourse on sports usually recognizes the inherent subjectivity better than discourse on other subjects. I root for the Vikings and RK roots for the Packers, and we both must know that there's no moral "truth" to the way we view and root for the NFL. Discussing sports simply requires recognition of different subjective vantage points.
But sometimes in sports blogs I notice a tone that I'll call "self-righteous smuggery." Sometimes a blogger writes as if it is completely ridiculous that anybody sees the world differently than said blogger. It's not when people write about their own favorite teams: a self-aware "my team is good and your team is bad" type of writing is usually in fun, and expressing emotions about sports (or issues) is not a bad thing. It sometimes comes up when writing takes a social or ethical (and sometimes statistical) angle. Even when I agree with what the writer is saying, I find myself annoyed and resistant. It's not a matter of content: it's a matter of tone and word choice. In my opinion, such a tone doesn't explore ideas or advance the discourse on a subject as well as it could; such a tone instead seems to try hit readers in the head with an attitude of superiority. I certainly recognize that there is a place for such writing--on some issues, it is justified to consider one's viewpoint moral and other opinions ridiculous. I'm just pointing out that it sometimes turns me off.
I'll try to be conscious of tone on this blog. I of course have strong opinions I want to express, and I often wish to refute what I see as illogical arguments or faulty ideas. But I'll try to do so with an effort toward discussion, not an effort to insult those who might disagree with me.
Besides, we have What was that bang? to occasionally affront people.
Links
Bryant McKinnie was arrested (Star Tribune, Pioneer Press). How do you feel whenever you learn that another Viking player has some legal trouble? I usually have a desire to pretend it isn't happening.
The NY York Times Movies page has a story about Baron Davis's love of and involvement in film. I enjoy reading about other facets of athletes' lives.
PFT writes that there isn't much of a market for Donte' Stallworth. Oh, Vikings, please sign a guy with a career 15.1 yards per reception. He may not be a stud, but he can make plays and stretch the field.
MJD has a funny replacement for the Wonderlic Test.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Friday Blizzard
Why all the slapping of tags?
I keep reading about players getting "slapped" with the franchise tag, about teams "slapping" the franchise tag on various players, yada yada yada. But players and franchise tags are delicate things. I encourage teams thinking of just up and slapping that tag on to be a little more careful. Tenderly apply the tag, gently and with care. Don't be so callous as to just slap that tag on.
The Safety Position for the Vikes
I don't have a problem with the Vikings cutting Dwight Smith (Star Tribune, Pioneer Press). The Viking pass defense was routinely destroyed by competent quarterbacks last season: they ranked 32nd in yards allowed, 15th in touchdowns allowed, 20th in interceptions, and 17th in net yards per attempt allowed. Opponents completed 64% of their passes against the Vikings (the league completion percentage is around 61%). By even the best of assessments, the 2007 Viking pass defense could only be described as mediocre--but they're mediocre because they generally contained bad quarterbacks, and got slaughtered by good quarterbacks.
So what are the Vikings to do? Stick with the status quo in the secondary? They're probably OK at cornerback: Antoine Winfield is good, and though Cedric Griffin and Marcus McCauley often looked shaky, they were in their second and first seasons, and can improve. Should they just stick with Dwight Smith and Darren Sharper at safety again? I think they're right to try and go in a different direction at safety.
They've clearly got deficiencies in their pass defense. The first step toward improvement is improving the pass rush. For anecdotal evidence on the need for a strong pass rush, look at the New England Patriots in the playoffs this season. The Jaguars failed to rush Tom Brady, and he calmly and easily sat in the pocket and completed 26 of 28 passes, leading the Pats to 31 points. The Giants put a consistent and fierce pass rush on Brady, and he had just 5.5 yards per attempt in getting the Patriots to just 14 points. Perhaps because of the changes in rules regarding pass coverage, the only way to stop a really good passing team is to pressure the quarterback.
But that doesn't mean the secondary shouldn't be tinkered with as the Vikes add defensive ends. If your pass defense is bad, you have to look a the secondary and find ways to improve yourself.
Links
Signal to Noise talks about Prince Fielder going vegetarian. On a related subject, I Dislike Your Favorite Team shows the indirect connection between Daniel Snyder and torture of chickens.
Access Vikings reports that Troy Williamson's agent will be meeting with the Vikings (well, not all of them, I assume). I'm just trying to picture the meeting. Can you imagine Williamson's agent making any request, or any complaint? Would the Viking officials just laugh? Stare in wonderment? Pro Football Talk says Williamson is on the trading block.
John Hollinger grades all of the wild and zany NBA trades this season. I don't remember an NBA season in which so many teams--and championship contenders--made big name trades.
Fanhouse says the Vikes might draft a DE again. Here are some of the defensive linemen the Vikes have drafted in the first round in my spectating period: Derrick Alexander, Duane Clemons, Demetrius Underwood, Chris Hovan, Erasmus James. No, I'm not terribly excited about the prospect of another defensive lineman selected in the first round (though we did get Kevin Williams, which is 1,000 levels of awesome). DE is a big need for the Vikes--but WR is bigger. Of course, unlike Madden video games, free agency comes before the draft in real life, so we don't know what the team needs might be on draft day.
Weekend
Enjoy your weekend, folks. You know how I feel about weekends: they come during a week, and they're at the end. Just as you know how Travis Cole feels about the homeless: they're human beings, and they have no homes.
Addendum
At Epic Carnival, wwtb? takes our Bad Luck Number and wonders who's the next long-suffering team to win a title.
I keep reading about players getting "slapped" with the franchise tag, about teams "slapping" the franchise tag on various players, yada yada yada. But players and franchise tags are delicate things. I encourage teams thinking of just up and slapping that tag on to be a little more careful. Tenderly apply the tag, gently and with care. Don't be so callous as to just slap that tag on.
The Safety Position for the Vikes
I don't have a problem with the Vikings cutting Dwight Smith (Star Tribune, Pioneer Press). The Viking pass defense was routinely destroyed by competent quarterbacks last season: they ranked 32nd in yards allowed, 15th in touchdowns allowed, 20th in interceptions, and 17th in net yards per attempt allowed. Opponents completed 64% of their passes against the Vikings (the league completion percentage is around 61%). By even the best of assessments, the 2007 Viking pass defense could only be described as mediocre--but they're mediocre because they generally contained bad quarterbacks, and got slaughtered by good quarterbacks.
So what are the Vikings to do? Stick with the status quo in the secondary? They're probably OK at cornerback: Antoine Winfield is good, and though Cedric Griffin and Marcus McCauley often looked shaky, they were in their second and first seasons, and can improve. Should they just stick with Dwight Smith and Darren Sharper at safety again? I think they're right to try and go in a different direction at safety.
They've clearly got deficiencies in their pass defense. The first step toward improvement is improving the pass rush. For anecdotal evidence on the need for a strong pass rush, look at the New England Patriots in the playoffs this season. The Jaguars failed to rush Tom Brady, and he calmly and easily sat in the pocket and completed 26 of 28 passes, leading the Pats to 31 points. The Giants put a consistent and fierce pass rush on Brady, and he had just 5.5 yards per attempt in getting the Patriots to just 14 points. Perhaps because of the changes in rules regarding pass coverage, the only way to stop a really good passing team is to pressure the quarterback.
But that doesn't mean the secondary shouldn't be tinkered with as the Vikes add defensive ends. If your pass defense is bad, you have to look a the secondary and find ways to improve yourself.
Links
Signal to Noise talks about Prince Fielder going vegetarian. On a related subject, I Dislike Your Favorite Team shows the indirect connection between Daniel Snyder and torture of chickens.
Access Vikings reports that Troy Williamson's agent will be meeting with the Vikings (well, not all of them, I assume). I'm just trying to picture the meeting. Can you imagine Williamson's agent making any request, or any complaint? Would the Viking officials just laugh? Stare in wonderment? Pro Football Talk says Williamson is on the trading block.
John Hollinger grades all of the wild and zany NBA trades this season. I don't remember an NBA season in which so many teams--and championship contenders--made big name trades.
Fanhouse says the Vikes might draft a DE again. Here are some of the defensive linemen the Vikes have drafted in the first round in my spectating period: Derrick Alexander, Duane Clemons, Demetrius Underwood, Chris Hovan, Erasmus James. No, I'm not terribly excited about the prospect of another defensive lineman selected in the first round (though we did get Kevin Williams, which is 1,000 levels of awesome). DE is a big need for the Vikes--but WR is bigger. Of course, unlike Madden video games, free agency comes before the draft in real life, so we don't know what the team needs might be on draft day.
Weekend
Enjoy your weekend, folks. You know how I feel about weekends: they come during a week, and they're at the end. Just as you know how Travis Cole feels about the homeless: they're human beings, and they have no homes.
Addendum
At Epic Carnival, wwtb? takes our Bad Luck Number and wonders who's the next long-suffering team to win a title.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
NFC North off-season
Check out Football Outsiders' "Four Downs: NFC North." Ryan Wilson writes that the Vikings need to add WRs this season, which I completely agree with (though I don't agree with the suggestion that Sidney Rice didn't pose a deep threat: he only had 31 catches, and those included 40 yard and 60 yard touchdown catches. His modest 12.8 yards per catch was, I think, more a reflection of the weak and generally short passing attack than his own inability to threaten deep). He also notes potential needs at defensive end and safety.
The theme continues: the Vikings are solid in most areas, but need to improve the pass defense and need to add quality components to the pass offense.
The theme continues: the Vikings are solid in most areas, but need to improve the pass defense and need to add quality components to the pass offense.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Tormented Fans: the Bad Luck Number
Sometimes when I tell people I fear I'll never see the Vikings win a Super Bowl, they try to assure me that I will. I'm young, and there are a lot of years left--chances are they'll win a title sometime. But "Why?" I say. The Cubs haven't won a championship in 100 years--I'm sure some Cubs fans in the last century were assured by friends that the odds are they'll see a Cub World Series win, but most assuredly some of those Cubs fans are now dead.
So I've considered what I simply call a "Bad Luck Number." It's simple: if championships are simply random, and there are 32 teams in the league, then you'd think that in 32 years, your favorite team should win a championship. So, look at each franchise in the league, and note the number of years since:
a. it last won a championship.
b. it entered the league through expansion.
c. it relocated to its current location (because what do residents of Phoenix care about how bad the Cardinals were in St. Louis?).
If the number of years since either a., b., or c. occured is greater than the number of teams in the league at the time, then that franchise has a Bad Luck Number. Fans of those teams are tormented and unlucky.
Now, of course championships aren't just randomly selected from a hat. But assuming I've used this website correctly, over the course of 32 years in which each team has a 1 in 32 chance of winning, a particular team has a 63.8% chance of winning one or more championships. I'm just trying to look for a simple number to show fan suffering. If you root for a franchise that has had a longer championship drought (in its current location) than the number of teams in the league, you've certainly been miserable.
Here is a list of each franchise from the NFL, NBA, and MLB that has a Bad Luck Number. I am including AFL and ABA championships, which doesn't change the list but does change the number in the parentheses (which is the year of the team's relocation, expansion season, or last championship).
NFL (32 teams, 14 with no championships since 1976)
Atlanta Falcons (1966)
Buffalo Bills (1965)
Cincinnati Bengals (1968)
Cleveland Browns (1964)
Detroit Lions (1957)
Houston Texans (1961)*
Kansas City Chiefs (1969)
Miami Dolphins (1973)
Minnesota Vikings (1961)
New Orleans Saints (1967)
New York Jets (1968)
Philadelphia Eagles (1960)
San Diego Chargers (1963)
Seattle Seahawks (1976)
*Cleveland lost a team and then gained an expansion team, but I'm including that entire history. It seems fair that Houston, which lost a team then gained an expansion team during a similar time period, gets the same consideration, so the Oilers are considered. In each case, you could subtract the years they didn't have franchises (since they obviously had no chance of winning those years), but they would still have a Bad Luck Number.
MLB (30 teams, 8 teams with no championships since 1978)
Chicago Cubs (1908)
Cleveland Indians (1948)
Houston Astros (1962)
Milwaukee Brewers (1970)
San Diego Padres (1969)
San Francisco Giants (1958)
Seattle Mariners (1977)
Texas Rangers (1972)
NBA (30 teams, 11 with no championships since 1978)
Atlanta Hawks (1969)
Cleveland Cavaliers (1971)
Denver Nuggets (1968)
Golden State Warriors (1975)
Indiana Pacers (1973)
Milwaukee Bucks (1971)
New Jersey Nets (1978)*
New York Knicks (1973)
Phoenix Suns (1969)
Portland Trailblazers (1977)
Utah Jazz (1975)
*They were the New York Nets when they won an ABA title in 1976; I don't really know if the fanbase changed fundamentally when they became the New Jersey Nets.
The following cities/regions that have two teams with Bad Luck Numbers:
Atlanta (Falcons and Hawks)
Seattle (Seahawks and Mariners)
San Diego (Chargers and Padres)
Houston (Oilers/Texans and Astros)
Milwaukee (Bucks and Brewers)
Seattle will also add the Supersonics to their teams with Bad Luck Numbers in 2009--just before the Sonics move to Oklahoma, probably. There would likely be other cities listed here if I had included hockey teams.
But one city has THREE teams with Bad Luck Numbers:
Cleveland (Indians, Browns, Cavaliers)
Yes, Cleveland sports fans are the most tortured of all, rooting for a baseball team that last won a championship in 1948, a football team that last won a title in 1964, and a basketball team that began playing in 1970-71 and has never won a championship.
Each year, only one team in each league can win a championship, and of course nobody is entitled to championships. But if you root for a team that hasn't won a championship in as many years as there are teams in the league, then you can certainly whine about your lot.
(This data was incredibly easy to access using the sports-reference.com sites. These sites are brilliant. Their hockey reference site isn't ready yet, though, and the other sites I considered using for hockey franchises weren't organized in useful way for this post; I didn't feel like doing the work, so I skipped hockey for now. Stanley Cup championships may come up in possible future posts on the subject).
So I've considered what I simply call a "Bad Luck Number." It's simple: if championships are simply random, and there are 32 teams in the league, then you'd think that in 32 years, your favorite team should win a championship. So, look at each franchise in the league, and note the number of years since:
a. it last won a championship.
b. it entered the league through expansion.
c. it relocated to its current location (because what do residents of Phoenix care about how bad the Cardinals were in St. Louis?).
If the number of years since either a., b., or c. occured is greater than the number of teams in the league at the time, then that franchise has a Bad Luck Number. Fans of those teams are tormented and unlucky.
Now, of course championships aren't just randomly selected from a hat. But assuming I've used this website correctly, over the course of 32 years in which each team has a 1 in 32 chance of winning, a particular team has a 63.8% chance of winning one or more championships. I'm just trying to look for a simple number to show fan suffering. If you root for a franchise that has had a longer championship drought (in its current location) than the number of teams in the league, you've certainly been miserable.
Here is a list of each franchise from the NFL, NBA, and MLB that has a Bad Luck Number. I am including AFL and ABA championships, which doesn't change the list but does change the number in the parentheses (which is the year of the team's relocation, expansion season, or last championship).
NFL (32 teams, 14 with no championships since 1976)
Atlanta Falcons (1966)
Buffalo Bills (1965)
Cincinnati Bengals (1968)
Cleveland Browns (1964)
Detroit Lions (1957)
Houston Texans (1961)*
Kansas City Chiefs (1969)
Miami Dolphins (1973)
Minnesota Vikings (1961)
New Orleans Saints (1967)
New York Jets (1968)
Philadelphia Eagles (1960)
San Diego Chargers (1963)
Seattle Seahawks (1976)
*Cleveland lost a team and then gained an expansion team, but I'm including that entire history. It seems fair that Houston, which lost a team then gained an expansion team during a similar time period, gets the same consideration, so the Oilers are considered. In each case, you could subtract the years they didn't have franchises (since they obviously had no chance of winning those years), but they would still have a Bad Luck Number.
MLB (30 teams, 8 teams with no championships since 1978)
Chicago Cubs (1908)
Cleveland Indians (1948)
Houston Astros (1962)
Milwaukee Brewers (1970)
San Diego Padres (1969)
San Francisco Giants (1958)
Seattle Mariners (1977)
Texas Rangers (1972)
NBA (30 teams, 11 with no championships since 1978)
Atlanta Hawks (1969)
Cleveland Cavaliers (1971)
Denver Nuggets (1968)
Golden State Warriors (1975)
Indiana Pacers (1973)
Milwaukee Bucks (1971)
New Jersey Nets (1978)*
New York Knicks (1973)
Phoenix Suns (1969)
Portland Trailblazers (1977)
Utah Jazz (1975)
*They were the New York Nets when they won an ABA title in 1976; I don't really know if the fanbase changed fundamentally when they became the New Jersey Nets.
The following cities/regions that have two teams with Bad Luck Numbers:
Atlanta (Falcons and Hawks)
Seattle (Seahawks and Mariners)
San Diego (Chargers and Padres)
Houston (Oilers/Texans and Astros)
Milwaukee (Bucks and Brewers)
Seattle will also add the Supersonics to their teams with Bad Luck Numbers in 2009--just before the Sonics move to Oklahoma, probably. There would likely be other cities listed here if I had included hockey teams.
But one city has THREE teams with Bad Luck Numbers:
Cleveland (Indians, Browns, Cavaliers)
Yes, Cleveland sports fans are the most tortured of all, rooting for a baseball team that last won a championship in 1948, a football team that last won a title in 1964, and a basketball team that began playing in 1970-71 and has never won a championship.
Each year, only one team in each league can win a championship, and of course nobody is entitled to championships. But if you root for a team that hasn't won a championship in as many years as there are teams in the league, then you can certainly whine about your lot.
(This data was incredibly easy to access using the sports-reference.com sites. These sites are brilliant. Their hockey reference site isn't ready yet, though, and the other sites I considered using for hockey franchises weren't organized in useful way for this post; I didn't feel like doing the work, so I skipped hockey for now. Stanley Cup championships may come up in possible future posts on the subject).
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Midweek Blizzard
First of all, how dare you suggest I've been mailing in the effort on this blog lately. Where do you get the nerve to suggest that I go through a brief period at the end of the football season when sports doesn't inspire me? Why would you suggest I've devoted my energies primarily to my family, my teaching job, and watching TV shows on DVD? Where do you get off?
On to a few links.
Grant's Tomb discusses the Viking wide receiver situation. Frankly I spend too much time mulling what the Vikings should or will do to upgrade and improve the wide receiver position. It's clearly the team's biggest need (bigger than any issue on the defensive side, like the need to upgrade pass rushers and defensive backs, in my opinion). What can they do? How should they do it? If somehow the 2008 Viking receiving corps featured Javon Walker, D. J. Hackett, and Sidney Rice, with Bobby Wade doing some nice slot work, I'd probably... well, I've grown bored trying to find a creative metaphor to describe how ecstatic I'd be.
Pro-football-reference.com has some interesting stuff on game winning touchdowns.
William Rhoden writes about the Nets losing Jason Kidd, their identity. What do you do when your favorite NBA team loses its iconic figure? Sometime in February, you probably catch a locally broadcast game, look at the team that has lost about 80% of its games, and just feel nothing. But really, I'm not entirely sure the Nets didn't get more for Kidd than the Wolves got for KG.
On to a few links.
Grant's Tomb discusses the Viking wide receiver situation. Frankly I spend too much time mulling what the Vikings should or will do to upgrade and improve the wide receiver position. It's clearly the team's biggest need (bigger than any issue on the defensive side, like the need to upgrade pass rushers and defensive backs, in my opinion). What can they do? How should they do it? If somehow the 2008 Viking receiving corps featured Javon Walker, D. J. Hackett, and Sidney Rice, with Bobby Wade doing some nice slot work, I'd probably... well, I've grown bored trying to find a creative metaphor to describe how ecstatic I'd be.
Pro-football-reference.com has some interesting stuff on game winning touchdowns.
William Rhoden writes about the Nets losing Jason Kidd, their identity. What do you do when your favorite NBA team loses its iconic figure? Sometime in February, you probably catch a locally broadcast game, look at the team that has lost about 80% of its games, and just feel nothing. But really, I'm not entirely sure the Nets didn't get more for Kidd than the Wolves got for KG.
Monday, February 18, 2008
wide receiver fantasies
I've accepted that Larry Fitzgerald catching passes for the 2008 Vikings is strictly the stuff of dreams. But if Donte' Stallworth becomes available, is that an impossible dream, too?
This is what I'll use to distract myself from deranged fantasies that D. J. Hackett is about to transform the Viking receiving corps.
This is what I'll use to distract myself from deranged fantasies that D. J. Hackett is about to transform the Viking receiving corps.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Alge Crumpler
According to Fanhouse, playmaking tight end Alge Crumpler is now available. Crumpler, who hasn't really played with good passing quarterbacks, still managed to average 13.3 yards per reception in Atlanta. That's a tight end that can get downfield and make plays. If you want a comparison, the best TE of this era, Tony Gonzalez, has a career average of 12.1 yards per catch and has never had a single season matching Crumpler's career average. Considering Crumpler is 30 and had his best years from '04-'06, I think he's got game left. And I would love for the Vikings to sign him. They definitely need a pass catcher with Crumpler's abilities.
The Fanhouse post also notes Byron Leftwich is available. Though I don't think his style fits the Vikings' current offense, they are in desperate need of (at the very least) a backup for Tarvaris Jackson. Leftwich's presence among available QBs at least deepens the available pool--giving the Vikes a slightly better chance to pursue a different QB they might want.
The Fanhouse post also notes Byron Leftwich is available. Though I don't think his style fits the Vikings' current offense, they are in desperate need of (at the very least) a backup for Tarvaris Jackson. Leftwich's presence among available QBs at least deepens the available pool--giving the Vikes a slightly better chance to pursue a different QB they might want.
Friday Blizzard
Don't you deserve more original content on this blog? No. No you don't.
What was that bang? gets moralistic
At Epic Carnival, wwtb? questions the assumption that congress really does have more important things to do than get involved in pro sports, and wonders why we don't think we have better things to do, too.
On the Vikings
From Access Vikings:
The Vikings want Kenechi Udeze to have privacy. The post notes that Udeze and his wife just had their first child--very sad. I don't care if Udeze ever plays football again; I'll be very happy if he beats cancer and can be there with his daughter as she grows up.
Udeze has the character to fight.
Kevin Seifert speculates on the Vikings' interest in WR Marty Booker. Really, the Vikings are so weak at WR, and the FA pool is so thin, that any available WR needs to be mentioned. I'm still driving the D. J. Hackett train, but last spring I was driving the David Carr train, so you can pretty much discount me entirely if you want.
The Ragnarok considers Bernard Berrian.
Grant's Tomb discusses the Viking offensive line.
My neighbors have been complaining about the horrified screams coming from my house Sunday afternoons. They want the Vikings to part ways with Troy Williamson, too (Fanhouse).
This Footballguys post is about Donovan McNabb and the Eagles, but the stats listed have two interesting notes on the Viking passing game. On the one hand, the Vikings had the highest percentage of yards after the catch in the league: a whopping 66% of their passing yards came on yards after the catch (compare that with teams that are known for good passing games: Seattle 32nd at 28.1%, Indianapolis 30th at 37.4%, New England 29th at 37.6%, Dallas 27th at 38.1%; evidently, team yards after the catch is not a good indicator of teams with good passing games. I've got all sorts of ideas about what this means). And on the other hand, the Vikings were 6th in drop percentage, dropping 6.3% of passes attempted.
And the rest
Football Outsiders' readers give 2007 awards.
Naturally, the NFL is upset that a judge decided Michael Vick can keep the money he already earned (Fanhouse).
Tim Hardaway has changed his attitude about gay people (Fanhouse).
Kids in poor countries get to live in bizarro sports world (Outsports).
MJD doesn't mind congress looking into allegations of cheating in pro football.
Oh, by the way...
Dexter, an excellent show originating on Showtime, is going to be showing on CBS starting Sunday. Your Sundays are now more open: I recommend checking out Dexter. I've previously written about the show at Costanza Book Club if you're interested, but there may be some spoilers toward the end of the post.
What was that bang? gets moralistic
At Epic Carnival, wwtb? questions the assumption that congress really does have more important things to do than get involved in pro sports, and wonders why we don't think we have better things to do, too.
On the Vikings
From Access Vikings:
The Vikings want Kenechi Udeze to have privacy. The post notes that Udeze and his wife just had their first child--very sad. I don't care if Udeze ever plays football again; I'll be very happy if he beats cancer and can be there with his daughter as she grows up.
Udeze has the character to fight.
Kevin Seifert speculates on the Vikings' interest in WR Marty Booker. Really, the Vikings are so weak at WR, and the FA pool is so thin, that any available WR needs to be mentioned. I'm still driving the D. J. Hackett train, but last spring I was driving the David Carr train, so you can pretty much discount me entirely if you want.
The Ragnarok considers Bernard Berrian.
Grant's Tomb discusses the Viking offensive line.
My neighbors have been complaining about the horrified screams coming from my house Sunday afternoons. They want the Vikings to part ways with Troy Williamson, too (Fanhouse).
This Footballguys post is about Donovan McNabb and the Eagles, but the stats listed have two interesting notes on the Viking passing game. On the one hand, the Vikings had the highest percentage of yards after the catch in the league: a whopping 66% of their passing yards came on yards after the catch (compare that with teams that are known for good passing games: Seattle 32nd at 28.1%, Indianapolis 30th at 37.4%, New England 29th at 37.6%, Dallas 27th at 38.1%; evidently, team yards after the catch is not a good indicator of teams with good passing games. I've got all sorts of ideas about what this means). And on the other hand, the Vikings were 6th in drop percentage, dropping 6.3% of passes attempted.
And the rest
Football Outsiders' readers give 2007 awards.
Naturally, the NFL is upset that a judge decided Michael Vick can keep the money he already earned (Fanhouse).
Tim Hardaway has changed his attitude about gay people (Fanhouse).
Kids in poor countries get to live in bizarro sports world (Outsports).
MJD doesn't mind congress looking into allegations of cheating in pro football.
Oh, by the way...
Dexter, an excellent show originating on Showtime, is going to be showing on CBS starting Sunday. Your Sundays are now more open: I recommend checking out Dexter. I've previously written about the show at Costanza Book Club if you're interested, but there may be some spoilers toward the end of the post.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Has Brad Childress gotten the Vikes closer to the playoffs?
Jon Marthaler at TNABACG writes that "2008 will be Brad Childress's third season in charge, and it seems that the Purple is no closer to the playoffs than when he started." It's a comment made basically in passing, but it made me wonder: are the Vikes closer to the playoffs?
If you look at nothing but records, no. The 2005 Vikings, coached by Mike Tice, went 9-7, and the 2007 Vikings, coached by Brad Childress, went 8-8.
But if we look closer, we see signs that the Vikings are actually closer to the playoffs than they were two years ago.
Points Scored and Points Allowed
The 2005 Vikes were outscored: they scored 306 points and allowed 344 points. According to p-f-r, that gives them 6.9 estimated wins (making the 2006 rebound to 6 wins understandable). The 2007 Vikes outscored their opponents: they scored 365 points and allowed 311. According to p-f-r, that gives them 9.5 estimated wins, suggesting the Vikes have improved, and possibly suggesting improvement next season.
Blowouts
People may recall the seven game winning streak in 2005 and think that Viking team was good. In fact, that seven game winning streak came mostly against lousy competition, and the Vikings were blown out nearly every time they played a quality team. Look at the 2005 game logs, and recall the embarrassments. 37-8. 30-10. 28-3. 38-13. 18-3. The 2007 Vikes were much more competitive on a week to week basis than the 2005 Vikes.
Defensive Improvement
Comparing the '05 defense to the '07 defense, we'll see improvement in points allowed (21.5 points per game to 19.4 points per game, improving from 19th ranked to 12th) and rushing defense (improvement from a league rank of 19th to a league rank of 1st). The Vikings still gave up a lot of yards both because they were passed against a lot and because they were frequently horrible against the pass. Still, I see the 2007 defense as better than the 2005 defense.
Improvement to Offensive Personnel
The 2005 Vikings had no dangerous skill position playmaker (after Culpepper got hurt) and often had troubles at the offensive line. The 2007 Vikings have two dangerous skill position players (though both are running backs, Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson), and really played strong at the offensive line (aided by the addition of Steve Hutchinson, the return from injury of Matt Birk, and the improving play of linemen like Bryant McKinnie). The Vikings have major deficiencies in the passing game personnel right now; however, Brad Childress inherited a team with major deficiencies in the passing game.
I think the Vikings are closer to the playoffs than they were when Brad Childress took over. Still, I agree with Marthaler:
"two seasons is hardly enough to make a definitive judgment on his tenure - but three seasons might be. If the Vikings miss the playoffs again in 2008, it's time to reconsider the team's long-term future, specifically Brad Childress's place in that future."
If you look at nothing but records, no. The 2005 Vikings, coached by Mike Tice, went 9-7, and the 2007 Vikings, coached by Brad Childress, went 8-8.
But if we look closer, we see signs that the Vikings are actually closer to the playoffs than they were two years ago.
Points Scored and Points Allowed
The 2005 Vikes were outscored: they scored 306 points and allowed 344 points. According to p-f-r, that gives them 6.9 estimated wins (making the 2006 rebound to 6 wins understandable). The 2007 Vikes outscored their opponents: they scored 365 points and allowed 311. According to p-f-r, that gives them 9.5 estimated wins, suggesting the Vikes have improved, and possibly suggesting improvement next season.
Blowouts
People may recall the seven game winning streak in 2005 and think that Viking team was good. In fact, that seven game winning streak came mostly against lousy competition, and the Vikings were blown out nearly every time they played a quality team. Look at the 2005 game logs, and recall the embarrassments. 37-8. 30-10. 28-3. 38-13. 18-3. The 2007 Vikes were much more competitive on a week to week basis than the 2005 Vikes.
Defensive Improvement
Comparing the '05 defense to the '07 defense, we'll see improvement in points allowed (21.5 points per game to 19.4 points per game, improving from 19th ranked to 12th) and rushing defense (improvement from a league rank of 19th to a league rank of 1st). The Vikings still gave up a lot of yards both because they were passed against a lot and because they were frequently horrible against the pass. Still, I see the 2007 defense as better than the 2005 defense.
Improvement to Offensive Personnel
The 2005 Vikings had no dangerous skill position playmaker (after Culpepper got hurt) and often had troubles at the offensive line. The 2007 Vikings have two dangerous skill position players (though both are running backs, Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson), and really played strong at the offensive line (aided by the addition of Steve Hutchinson, the return from injury of Matt Birk, and the improving play of linemen like Bryant McKinnie). The Vikings have major deficiencies in the passing game personnel right now; however, Brad Childress inherited a team with major deficiencies in the passing game.
I think the Vikings are closer to the playoffs than they were when Brad Childress took over. Still, I agree with Marthaler:
"two seasons is hardly enough to make a definitive judgment on his tenure - but three seasons might be. If the Vikings miss the playoffs again in 2008, it's time to reconsider the team's long-term future, specifically Brad Childress's place in that future."
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